Renewed Appetite for Risk Drives Dollar to 15-Month Low
Support for the U.S. Dollar continued to erode all day
triggering a collapse in the Dollar Index to near last weekâ€™s low at
74.27.A break through this level sets
up a further decline to 73.67 which would match the April 2008 bottom.
Renewed appetite for risk helped drive the U.S. Dollar to a
15 month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as concerns about debt
issues in Dubai
subsided, leading to increased demand for higher yielding currencies. Further
weakness in the Dollar was attributed to a report that Chinese manufacturing
increased at its fastest pace in five years.
The weakness in the Dollar helped boost commodity and stock
demand as investors once again felt comfortable adding more risk to their
News that Chinese manufacturing rose to a seasonally
adjusted level of 55.7 helped drive the EUR USD over $1.51.Later this week, traders expect the European
Central Bank to leave interest rates unchanged, but offer plans to gradually
decrease its financial stimulus package.
The GBP USD rose sharply as U.K. manufacturing increased
slightly. Technically, this market rallied back into a retracement zone at
1.6574 to 1.6646.This market may use
this current retracement as an opportunity to form a secondary lower top.Yesterdayâ€™s drop in consumer confidence and
rising unemployment are still major concerns for the bulls.
The USD JPY rose after the Bank of Japan took action to
weaken its currency.The BoJ voted
earlier this morning to leave interest rates unchanged while deciding to
provide three-month loans to commercial banks at an interest rate of 0.10
percent.This action by the BoJ is
expected to help stimulate growth and prevent deflation.
News that Russia
will add the Canadian Dollar to its Forex reserves, along with higher equity
and commodity markets, helped to pressure the USD CAD. Demand for higher
yielding assets should continue to strengthen in the Canadian Dollar.The chart pattern suggests more downside action
to follow now that the .618 retracement level at 1.0459 and a pair of old
bottoms at 1.0449 and 1.0416 has been broken.The only thing that could stop the rise in the Canadian Dollar will be
action by the Bank of Canada to provide liquidity to the market.The BoC is concerned that a rising currency
will hurt export demand.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark
interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 overnight as expected.The RBA also added in its statement that its
tight monetary policy should help to curb inflation.This news helped to limited gains in the AUD
USD as traders believe it sends a signal that interest rate hikes may level
off.Stronger demand for higher yielding
assets was the main reason for the rise in the Aussie. The key price to watch
is .9322.A break through this level
turns the main trend up. The inability to follow-through to the upside could
trigger a break back to .9108.
The NZD USD posted a strong gain on Tuesday.Demand for higher yielding assets and oversold
technical conditions were the main forces driving this currency higher
today.The chart pattern suggests that
the way of least resistance is up following a nine-day slide.The first objective of .7272 was reached
earlier this morning.The next upside
target is .7332.A lack of
follow-through to the upside could trigger a break back to .7157.
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