EURUSD Survives Dubai Scare β What Next? By GoLearn Forex
Now that the EUR has safely breached
resistance and survived the Dubai scare letβs take a look at where the EUR may
be heading next. In order to project forward we must first look back at where
the EUR has been.In the Graph below you
can clearly see the period of complete market turmoil, commencing July of 2008.
Over the next year notice the ensuing volatility represented by the white
circle.The area in the red box shows a steadier
trend emerging in June 2009.This is
further evidenced by price cleanly riding up the 50 SMA in yellow.
I drew a Fibonacci Projection from the
low indicated by Box A to the high indicated by Box B on the Graph below.These points are significant because they are
inflection points that began the EUR rally.Additionally, they are located in the area of volatility circled in
white above.Fibonacci makes sense and
order from disorder and chaos.Therefore
using these points for the basis of the projection is taking chaos or what we
refer to as volatility and making order and sense from it which is the period
of time represented by the red box above. View the results in the Graph below.
The Fibonacci's Projections land on
almost precisely the last 3 resistance levels and highlights past price action
resistance points as well.The FIBO
138.2% level at 1.5048 was struck in October when the EUR finally broke the
psychological 1.50 barrier.It was
tested again in November before finally being taken out a few days ago.
So where is the EUR headed next? Based
on the Fibonacci Projections we expect to meet resistance at 150%, which
coincides with previous support levels as indicated by the 2 blue circles back
in May and June of 2008.If the
Fibonacci 150% level is taken out then the next point of resistance is the
161.8% or approximately 1.55.You can
see the congestion at that level starting in May 2008 and lasting through June
Since the 50 SMA has been holding such
strong support for this EUR move our new Long entries would trigger near the 50
SMA (buying on the dips). If we breach the 150% Fibonacci level then we would
increase our Long and look to take profit near 1.55.However, in order to enter a short we would
need to see an entire candle appear below the 50 SMA.This is an occurrence that has not taken
place in months.
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