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Wednesday December 2, 2009 - 16:15:22 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Wednesday, December 02, 2009 11:11:25 AM

 US Market Update

- DOW -1 S&P 500 +2 Nasdaq +15

- US indices opened flat this morning and have made steady gains in the first hour of trade, supported by largely positive ADP jobs data, with the DJIA printing fresh 14-month highs above 10,500. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is leading the way higher this morning, after the NY Post reported cyber Monday sales could top $900M, up 6% y/y. The November Challenger Job Cuts survey fell more than 10% on a sequential basis and more than 70% on a y/y basis; the November reading was the lowest since December 2007. The November ADP employment change data was worse than expected, although it was still better than the October reading (both the Oct and Sept ADP data were revised to show fewer job losses). Some commentators believe the ADP results make it less likely that the
US nonfarm payrolls will be able to register positive job growth (last seen back in Dec 2007). Metals futures are strong in early trading, with spot gold near its all-time highs above $1,200. Front-month crude is languishing below the $78 handle after the higher than expected inventory builds seen in this morning's weekly DoE report and yesterday's API readings.

- Bank stocks are among the laggards in early trading. In a report Moody's wrote that its outlook for US banks continues to be Negative given that they still face substantial asset quality issues. Moody's believes rated
US banks have recognized approximately 40% of the loan charge-offs that will be realized from 2008 to 2010 and anticipates these losses will continue to make many US banks unprofitable in 2010. These comments echo warnings from S&P last week and Goldman Sachs on Monday.

- In other news, Dyax is up more than 28% after the FDA approved Kalbitor for treating acute attacks of hereditary angioedema. Nokia said 2010 global handset volumes would grow 10% y/y but warned its average selling prices and market share would drop in 2010. Boeing is up slightly after moving up first flight for its 787 Dreamliner to Dec 14th from the 22nd.

- The greenback faces mixed price action as dealers position themselves ahead of the ECB rate decision on Thursday and Friday's
US November payroll data. EUR/USD is holding steady around 1.5075 with continued chatter of another binary option play curbing volatility with 1.5150 as the upper parameter. Dealers noted the divergence in equity prices and dollar movements. The ECB press conference will focus on the 12-month tender operation and whether the Dec 16th operation will be the last of its kind. Better ECB staff projections for growth should prompt additional exit strategies, including fewer 6-month, 3-month and 1-month refi operations in 2010. The yen was subdued in the New York session thanks to choppy price action from the earlier session on Japanese verbal intervention. Sterling is holding onto most of its gains from London fix-related orders.

 

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