Thursday December 3, 2009 - 03:33:06 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 03-Dec-2009 - 0330 GMT
The Dow (10452.68) and the Nasdaq (2185.03) closed flat yesterday. The Resistance at 10500 on the Dow has been holding and is likely to be tested going forward through the rest of the year as the index ranges between 10250-10500.
The Asian indices, too, are trading flattish with a bullish bias barring Nikkei (9828.41) which has surged 2.28% led by exporters on weaker Yen. The Sensex (17169.91) had risen in early trades yesterday but drifted lower thereafter to close the day marginally lower. The Sensex seems to have developed a sideways range for itself.
Crude (76.80) fell sharply yesterday as the EIA's data release showed an unexpected increase of 2.1 million barrels in the US Crude inventory against the expected drop of 1.3 million barrels thereby raising concerns about the energy demand. Support is seen at 76, a break below which might pull it further down towards 75-74.50. On the upside Resistance is seen at 79.00-50.
Gold (1224.20) is continuing to trade strong and has broken above the Resistance at 1220 mentioned earlier as the dollar remained weak. We may expect a further rise towards 1250 in the coming days, if the current upside momentum continues.
The Euro (1.5088) and the Aussie (0.9290) are trading in a range of 1.5035-1.5115 and 0.9230-90 respectively keeping the overall uptrend intact. A break above the Resistance at 1.5140 might take Euro up towards 1.5200-20. Aussie might see 0.9350 on the upside. The Pound (1.6682) has risen from yesterday's low of 1.6550 and is trading higher now. Resistance is seen in 1.6690-1.6720 region a break above which might see further rise towards 1.6750 or even higher.
Dollar-Yen (87.90) has broken above the Resistance at 87.60 and is trading higher thereby increasing the chances of a further rise towards 88.50. The Euro-Yen (132.61) has also risen taking support from the rise in Dollar-Yen. We may see a further rise towards 133.50 if the current upside momentum continues. Swiss (0.9991) is trading in a very narrow range with overall bearish sentiment. A strong break below the immediate Support at 0.9975 might see a dip towards 0.9875-50 in the coming days.
The Korean-Won is trading near 1155 and the Dollar-Ruppee has closed yesterday at 46.3450/3550 yesterday.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.26%. The yields on US Treasuries are trading slightly higher today. The 2Y and 10Y yields have risen 5 and 4 bps respectively to close at 0.72% and 3.32%.
The European Central Bank is scheduled to meet today. The market consensus is of unchanged key interest rates at 1%.
10:00 GMT EU GDP Q3 '09 (Pre)
...Expected 0.4%...Previous 0.4%
10:00 GMT EU Retail Sales
...Expected 0.2%...Previous -0.7%
12:45 GMT E-15 ECB Announcement
...Expected 1.00%...Previous 1.00%
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