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Thursday December 3, 2009 - 07:13:11 GMT
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EURUSD, GBPUSD and NZDUSD daily outlook 12-03-09
Quote of the day: I think that only daring speculation can lead us further and not accumulation of facts. â€“ Albert Einstein
Trading strategy: holding yesterdayâ€™s long @1.5045, stop at break-even, 2nd objective at 1.5145 (1st objective closed at 1.5095)
The euro found bids into the support zone of 1.5000/50 region as expected and noted on yesterday, therefore my plan to buy dips at 1.5045 was a good idea, 1st objective of 50 points being reached in overnight trading, also providing an opportunity to hold the position in a risk-free trade (adjusting stop-loss at break-even), aiming for the 2nd objective at 1.5145. Speaking of todayâ€™s conditions: upside remains favored as the euro is trading comfortably above the 1.5000 handle, not far below the ytd high at 1.5145. As long as 1.5000 is on the â€™safe sideâ€™ â€“ not being threatened by extended pullbacks â€“ more upside price action is likely, also showing that recent expensive/overbought prices (resistance into the 1.5000 region) lookcheaper today (providing support and points to re-initiate long positions). However, a breach above 1.5150 requires a break above 1113 in S&P500 â€“ that level providing a solid roof so far. Current quote is 1.5096 @06:50 GMT
Support: 1.5030/50, 1.5000, 1.4950/75 and 1.4850/00
Resistance: 1.5145/75, 1.5200/15 and 1.5250
EURUSD 4hrs chart
S&P500 daily chart
The falling trend line coming from 1.6870 has been breached, thus marking the 1st â€˜check signâ€™ on uptrend resumption. A sustained break above 1.6700 is also needed â€“ preferably a daily bar/candle close above the said handle. If so, short-term studies will turn positive, opening 1.6870/00 and 1.7000 for extended gains. The 1.6700 resistance is under pressure at the time of writing this, so Iâ€™d say that a breach is highly doable â€“ and I wouldnâ€™t sell the Pound, although it is not the best performer against the buck, nowadays. In case of pullbacks, support may be challenged into the 1.6600/15 zone, then lower around 1.6500. As long as 1.6600/15 is intact, odds favor further climbing. Current quote is 1.6687 @06:50 GMT
Support: 1.6600/15, 1.6500 and 1.6400
Resistance: 1.6700, 1.6750, 1.6800 and 1.6870/00
GBPUSD 4hrs chart
The kiwi dollar is once again pushing on the rising trend line which provided support for several months â€“ and now providing resistance. A sustained break above the said trend line â€“ now around .7280/00 â€“ would signal a resume of the uptrend, short-term momentum turning positive. Last pullback to as low as .7203 could have been a very good run for my short @.7270 but I called it a neutral trade (closing at break-even) before pulling back below .7220 â€“ Câ€™est la vie! â€¦better luck next time. Keep an eye on this .7280 region â€“ it may breach, eventually, opening .7400. On the lower side, support is seen into the same .7200 zone. Below .7200 would negate the bullish structure, resuming downtrend. Current quote is .7271 @06:50 GMT
Support: .7200, .7160, .7125 and .7025
Resistance: .7280/00, .7350 and .7400
NZDUSD daily chart
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