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European Market Update: Rising risk appetite characterized stocks with economic optimism everywhere; Timing ripe for effective currency intervention in JPY?

Thursday, December 03, 2009 5:54:33 AM

 European Market Update: Rising risk appetite characterized stocks with economic optimism everywhere; Timing ripe for effective currency intervention in JPY?


- (FR) French Q3 ILO Unemployment Rate: 9.5% v 9.9%e v 9.5% prior, Mainland Unemployment Rate: 91.% v 9.3%e
- (IR) Ireland NCB Services PMI: 46.8 v 47.4 prior
- (SP) Spain Nov Services PMI: 46.1 v 47.7 prior
- (NV) Netherlands Nov CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9%e
- (NV) Netherlands Nov CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6%e
- (IT) Italian Nov PMI Services: 49.8 v 52.2e
- (FR) French Nov Final PMI Services: 60.9 v 60.4e; Highest since Oct 2006
- (GE) German Nov Final PMI Services: 51.4 v 51.5e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Nov Final PMI Services: 53.0 v 53.2e; PMI Composite: 53.7 v 53.7e
- (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserves: $449.7B v $443.8B prior
- (IC) Iceland Nov Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 6.0B v 16.4B prior
- (SP) Spain Nov Consumer Confidence: 75.3 v 69.2 prior
- (UK) Nov PMI Services: 57.0e v 56.9 prior
- (SA) South Africa Nov SACCI Business Confidence: 84.1 v 82.2 prior
- (EU) Euro-zone Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%; Y/Y: -1.9% v -2.4%e
- (EU) Euro-zone Q3 Prelim
GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -4.1% v -4.1%e

- Equities: Market news flow has picked up sharply into the second half of the week. Equity markets in
Europe have put in another strong morning session following a plethora of wide ranging news topics. Ignoring a mixed session in Asia, markets have focuses on announcements from Bank of America [BAC.FR], earnings from Kingfisher [KGF.UK], Siemens [SIE.GE], along with news flows from Peugeot [UG.FR] and VW [VOW.GE]. Bank of America's post market announcement that it would be repaying $45B in TARP funds has bolstered financials across that board, despite a sector downgrade from Goldman Sachs for 2010. UK earnings from Marston's and Kingfisher came in positive and lifted the retail and pub/food names in the UK. Siemens disappointing Q4 net loss (on the back of write-down's in its Nokia/Siemens JV] disappointed markets with the name being one of the only negative movers. In auto's, Peugeot confirmed that it is in talks with Japanese maker Mitsubishi regarding a stake purchase while VW provided a timetable for its stake purchases in Porsche [PAH3.GE]. CFAO [CFAO.FR] IPO'd on the Paris Euronext, marking the largest IPO in France in two years. Swallowing Euro zone and state PMI's, retail sales and GDP figures, data out of Europe has broadly supported equity strength. Trading volumes have returned with both the FTSE100 and DAX trading well ahead of their moving averages.

-In individual equities: Vossloh [VOS.GE]: Guides FY10 Net 81-84M v 86Me, Rev 1.23-1.28B v 1.2Be. || VW [VOW.GE]: CFO: Will acquire 49.9% stake in Porsche in next week -shareholders meeting. || Kingfisher [KGF.UK]: Reports Q3 Rev 2.7B v 2.7Be,
LFL Sales +5.7%. || Marston's [MARS.UK]: Reports Prelim FY09 Pretax 70M v 70Me, Rev 645M v 645Me. || Siemens [SIE.GE]: Reports Q4 Net loss 1.1B v gain 581Me, Sector profit 1.9B v 1.6Be, Rev 19.7B v 19.2Be. ||

- Speakers: India Central Bank (RBI) Deputy Gov Thorat: 2010 growth forecast likely to be revised upwards. He noted that the RBI must reassess its policy to balance growth and price stability. Gov't fiscal policies helped to spur economic growth aided by investment. The country's Infrastructure sector showing signs of significant recovery. He commented that the bond yield rise in recent months was due to higher
India borrowings but equity markets were indicating a restoration of confidence. Lastly he noted that managing capital inflows to be a challenge looking ahead || Former Japanese Fin Min Tanigaki commented that the Yen appreciation was aided by confusing remarks from the current government. He noted that the Yen rise was aided by suggestions the authorities might tolerate a firmer yen currency. He added that rapid currency price movements that disrupt the economy need a stance that would deliver the necessary message || Japan's MOF's Noda stated that the coalition parties agree that it is not desired to increase debt issuance || Czech Republic Fin Ministry issued an updated bond management strategy. It now sees 2010 gross borrowing requirement at CZK280B compared to CZK269B in 2009. It forecasted 2011 gross borrowing requirement at CZK306B and planned to o sell at least one benchmark Eurobond issue next year. The ministry also noted that it would analyze other foreign-financing alternatives || Norway Stats office forecasted 2010 oil and gas investment at NOK139B from NOK145.4B prior view (2009 level was NOK141B). The Stats office also revised up its growth forecasts and now look for the economy to contract by 1.1% in 2009 and to grow by 1.7% in 2010, versus -1.6% and 1.4%prior views

- Currencies: The USD was softer against the European pairs as the European morning commenced as risk appetite continued to remain buoyant. Japanese Exporter stocks helped propel Nikkei 225 Index higher by almost 4% to approach 10K level. Asian session was marked by a pickup in JPY currency selling amid reports of increased carry trade activity. The USD/JPy approaching the pivotal resistance of 88.00. Dealers did note of Toshin fund related flows as
Japan launches a new Rising China Fund Toshin launched today. Lastly a move above 88 might provide an ideal situation for intervention as dealers note that recent rhetoric, lower interest rates, technical overstretch, and market participants positioned long JPY. There was decent demand in the session for year end 92 strike USD calls.
- EUR/USD still holding below the upper parameter of 1.5150 in the binary option said to be in effect until Friday. || A gradual climb in dollar funding costs in
China and a steady drop in Thai baht onshore forwards seemed to suggest domestic investors in these markets are preparing for an inevitable year-end dollar funding squeeze

- Fixed Income: The interest rate complex has been characterized by sharply higher yields this morning in
Europe ahead of a pivotal ECB rate decision. Bear flattening has been the order of the day in Germany (yields on the 2 year Schatz are up some 10bps at 1.34% for two week highs) with anticipation buliding for some form of quasi-tightening from the ECB. The question on traders minds is what form it will take - whether the ECB will decide to add a spread over its 12 month long term repo operation and/or whether it will discontinue those or other liquidity facilities in 2010. A raft of supply has also weighed on German fixed income with Spain selling 3.2B in 2013s while France sold a combined total of 5.4B in BTAN's and OAT's with mixed results. The BoE announced it considering amendments to its corporate bond purchase scheme- that it was considering acting as both a buyer and seller in the markets in order to improve liquidity (and ultimately issuance) in that market. The 10 year Gilt yield us up 6bps at 3.653% while the US 10 year Note yield is up 3bps in overnight trading at 3.34%. | |JP Morgan analyst commented on yield curves noting that recommends positions for steeper Treasuries curves. Believes to sell front end Treasuries on fair value. Recommended buying Italian and Irish Gov't bonds and ended their bet that Greek Gov't bonds would rise. Year-end funding issues had traders focus on some price observations in China. They noted that China's onshore dollar lending rates have gradually crept up. Six-month rates are now quoted at 1.689%, which is 120 basis points above corresponding dollar LIBOR.

- In the papers: UK's Telegraph noted that S&P believes that European companies face $1.5 trillion funding shortfall next year as central banks withdraw emergency stimulus, and spendthrift governments across the world soak up much of the available capital. S&P noted that the shortage of funds will raise borrowing costs for business by an extra 75 basis points, with the risk of a more serious crunch for small companies. "While the worst of the recession may be behind us, the recovery is likely to be extremely shallow,

- Rising risk appetite characterized stocks with economic optimism everywhere
- Japanese Exporter Stocks propel Nikkei higher by almost 4% to approach 10K
- Bank of America plans to repay $45Bo of govt bailout funds.
- Bernanke reconfirmation hearing begins
- ECB Rate decision but the press conference will be key for details on the ECB exit strategy from special measures.

***Looking Ahead:
- (IR) Irish Oct House Prices Y/Y: % v 13.1% prior
- 7:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate decision: Expected to kept interest Rates at 1.00% but exit strategy is key at press conference
- 8:30 (US) Q3 Final Nonfarm Productivity: 8.5%e v 9.5% prior, Unit Labor Costs: -4.1%e v -5.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Nov 28th: 480Ke v 466K prior, Continuing Claims: 5.4Me v 5.423M prior
- 8:30 (EU) ECB's Trichet's press conference following rate decision; Key focus on exit strategies
- 10:00 (US) Nov ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 51.5e v 50.6 prior
- 10:00 (TU) Turkey Nov Consumer prices M/M: 1.0%e v 2.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 5.1% prior
- 10:00 (TU) Turkey Nov Producer prices M/M: 1.0%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Nov IMEF Non-Manufacturing Index: 53.0e v 52.9 prior; Non-Manufacturing index: 52.5e v 52.2 prior


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