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Thursday December 3, 2009 - 11:51:01 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 03/12/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 3, 2009
Mr.McDonell is the Chief Currency Coach at FX Bootcamp, a live forex
training organization that teaches traders how to develop conservative
trade plans based on technical and fundamental analysis, as well as
addressing the psychological aspects of being a trader; all in
Unemployment Rate Report
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly Unemployment
Rate report tomorrow (Dec 4). The report is a measure of the percentage
of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking
employment and willing to work in the US.
A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low
percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and
should be taken as positive for the USD.
Analysts predict tomorrowâ€™s rate to remain stable at 10.20%.
The Euro moved in a tight range without any meaningful moves
technically. That kept the Euro above the rising trendline from 1.4827.
We believe that testing this line is only a matter of time. And if the
Dollar succeeds in breaking this line, it would put the Euro under
pressure, because that break would mean that we are already in a
correction for the whole move from 1.4827. Such a correction would take
this pair to Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 1.4972 as a first
target, and may be Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4937 as a second target &
an important support. On the other hand, short-term resistance is at
1.5143, and only breaking it would improve the â€śexhaustedâ€ť technical
outlook. If this break happens, it will target 1.5200 first, and may be
1.5260 later. But, as long as we are below 1.5143 exhaustion will lead
this pair downwards to test several support levels and important
â€˘ 1.5072: the rising trendline from 1.4827 on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 1.4972: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
â€˘ 1.4937: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
â€˘ 1.5143: November 25th top.
â€˘ 1.5200: resistance area from 2008.
â€˘ 1.5260: resistance area from 2008.
In spite of dropping 100 pips from Fibonacci resistance at 87.50, the
price came back to break it, and it is approaching 88 this morning. We
might hear later that this rise was caused by a series of small or
â€śmildâ€ť interventions, in order to weaken the Yen. The matter of
intervention continue to be important in these areas, and since the
Japanese government do not announce that they did for w a while after
the intervention, there is no way to predict when and where they are
going to do it. Technically speaking, the price is heading now towards
the top of the channel that is rising from last weekâ€™s bottom. This top
is at 88.18, and it is resistance of the day. If broken the Dollar will
continue to show strength, and will target the top of the supposed
wedge formation at 88.58, and may be then we will see a test of
November 23rd top 89.17. Support is provided by the rising trendline
from this weekâ€™s low, which is currently at 87.29, breaking it would
target 86.72 & 86.28.
â€˘ 87.29: the rising trendline from Mondayâ€™s low.
â€˘ 86.72: intraday top from last week.
â€˘ 86.28: the bottom of the rising trend channel from last weeks bottom.
â€˘ 88.18: the top of the rising trend channel from last weeks bottom.
â€˘ 88.72: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
â€˘ 89.17: Nov 23rd high.
Forex Trading Analysis by Forexpros. For more Forex news go to Forexpros.
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Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any
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