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Thursday December 3, 2009 - 14:58:42 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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It is confirmed: the recession is over!

Key News
ECB Keeps Key Interest Rate at 1%; Trichet May Unveil Stimulus Exit Plan (Bloomberg)
Australian Professor in Japan makes case for protectionism against China (Credit Writedowns)

Quotable  
“Once the manic burst of building has stopped and the whirlwind has slowed, the secrets of Dubai are slowly seeping out. This is a city built from nothing in just a few wild decades on credit and ecocide, suppression and slavery. Dubai is a living metal metaphor for the neo-liberal globalised world that may be crashing – at last – into history.”  
       Johann Hari, The Independent
 
FX Trading –Eurozone Recession: Over!
It’s confirmed – the Eurozone has pulled out of recession in the third quarter.
 
A second look at third-quarter GDP today showed the countries that collectively make up the Eurozone escaped that dastardly negative growth thing. Or maybe it’s more accurate to say they collectively escaped recession. Yeah?
 
A friend passed this little research tidbit our way yesterday:
 
Apart from the Greek debt, European banks have to contend with about $1 trillion loans to impaired borrowers that come due in the next twelve months (Romania $36 billion, Hungary $27.5 billion, Estonia $6 billion, Latvia $6.8 billion, Lithuania $7.1 billion, Poland $26.8 billion, Turkey $54 billion, Russia $81 billion, Ireland $347 billion, Spain $313 billion, Italy $349 billion, Portugal $55 billion, etc.).
 
Consider the phrase: a team is only as strong as its worst player.
 
Now forget that phrase and replace it with this one: a team is as strong as its best player. Remember that and you should be in good shape when it comes to Europe and its related markets ... cough, cough ... euro ... [Chart not available in text format.]
 
We look at the markets everyday with the intent on delivering content and commentary that supplements what’s dished out by mainstream market news sources. Our hope is that our readers are never caught completely off guard to any major trend changes or sentiment shifts.
 
What we’ve been wondering lately is if much of the market is setting up to be caught off guard. It actually seemed as though many analysts were feeling a bit the same when Dubai shook things up last week.
 
But the usual crowd seems content to brush that event off as insignificant -- no canary in the coal mine here. No way, unh unh, not gonna happen.
 
So is it back to complacency? We’ll have to go with yes.
 
Little Red Riding Hood has taken the Big Bad Wolf out to the woodshed ... and for the psychological well-being of everyone. The notorious fear index (VIX) seems to say “Thanks again Red, there’s really nothing to be afraid of ...” [Chart not available in text format.]
 
That was quick – a sizeable Dubai-bounce in the VIX after testing big-time daily support. But almost as quickly, volatility (fear) is returning to pre-Dubai levels. Broadening our view, current levels fall right in the weekly range prior to the global financial crisis that broke at the end of 2008. [Chart not available in text format.]

It seems like everything is hunky dory. It seems like stocks are ready to break sharply higher above resistance after a recent phase of consolidation.  [Chart not available in text format.]

It seems like there’s complete confidence in the Federal Reserve to keep the best interests of the economy (and Wall Street) in mind. Errrr, well, you know what I mean.
 
It seems like no one really has any problem dumping on the US dollar ... even at current levels. 
 
And unless ECB front-man Jean-Claude Trichet wakes up with a sovereign default under his pillow, it seems as though a test of all-time US dollar lows is in the cards.
 
John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital LLC
www.blackswantrading.com  

 

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