Stock index futures ended the day lower after bids were
pulled late in the session allowing the market to plunge to new session
lows.Although the December E-mini
S&P 500 made a new high for year, the inability of the Dow and NASDAQ
futures to follow-through to the upside created a bearish divergence that
helped weaken the market throughout the day.
At the time the S&P was making its high, the Dollar was
weakening but not making new lows.This
made traders nervous since the driving force behind the 9 month rally in the
equity markets has been the weaker Dollar. Many traders got trapped on the long
side of the market this morning following a gap higher opening and a friendly
initial claims report.The gap opening
was triggered by aggressive Asian buying following yesterdayâ€™s late session
report that Bank of America was going to pay back its TARP money.
Although the main trend is still up in the equities and some
will say it was position evening ahead of tomorrowâ€™s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
Report, todayâ€™s failure and subsequent break looks a little more bearish.The outside move down so close to a major 50%
retracement level in the S&P at 1122.00 makes one wonder if this was the
final leg up.A trade through 1077.75 will
officially turn the main trend down on the daily chart, but a trade through
todayâ€™s low at 1097.50 will confirm the reversal top and give traders the first
clue that a top has been formed.
March Treasury futures had little reaction to the sell-off
in the equities.The stronger initial
claims report earlier in the session basically took control of the markets by
pushing up demand for higher yields.Fixed income futures treaded water most of the day ahead of tomorrowâ€™s U.S. employment
report.The March Treasury Bonds settled
right on a 50% price at 120â€™06.
The U.S. Dollar Index withstood another test of the low for
the week at 74.31 and last weekâ€™s low at 74.27.The higher close is impressive, but this market is still lower for the
The December Euro rallied early in the session following the
announcement from the European Central Bank to begin withdrawing its stimulus
money from the Euro Zone economy, but backed-off last weekâ€™s high at 1.5144
when ECB President Trichet called for a stronger Dollar.
Worries over a weakening economy helped to pressure the
December British Pound, but there is still not enough evidence to say that a
secondary lower top has been formed.Todayâ€™s lower close produces a closing price reversal top, but a
follow-through break through 1.6556 is needed to confirm the pattern.
The December Japanese Yen traded lower for a third straight
day.Earlier in the week, the Bank of
Japan announced another stimulus plan designed to promote economic growth.Pressure could be on this currency until
December 17th when the BoJ holds its formal meeting.Traders are nervous about holding long
positions because of the possibility of an intervention.
Trichetâ€™s call for a stronger Dollar helped pressure the
December Canadian Dollar, but the most bearish influence came from lower
equities and flat crude oil.
February Gold surged to a new all-time high overnight, but
selling pressure began to hit this market before the U.S.
opening in New York.Heavy Asian and European trading helped boost
prices but the subsequent sell-off and lower close has formed a closing price
reversal top.A break through $1205.20
will confirm the reversal and trigger a 2-3 day break to $1165 - $1150.If Asian buyers donâ€™t come in tonight or last
nightâ€™s buyers decide to liquidate their positions, then look for the beginning
of a sharp sell-off.
March Crude Oil closed lower on Thursday.The combination of a stronger Dollar, weaker
equities and growing supply helped weaken this market.Todayâ€™s lower-low has helped form another
lower main top at 81.52.This is the
third lower top since the high for the year was formed at 83.60 in
October.The last rally is beginning to
look like a retracement of the 83.60 to 74.88 range.A failure at 79.24 to 80.27 could set up
another break to 75.53 to 73.63. The catalyst behind the next leg down will be
aversion to higher yielding assets.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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