Friday December 4, 2009 - 03:42:44 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 04-Dec-2009 - 0341 GMT
The Dow (10366.15) and the Nasdaq (2173.14) fell 0.83% and 0.54% respectively yesterday as the range Resistance near 10500 on Dow continued to hold. The Dow has been oscillating between 10250-10500 over the last several days. Unless broken, we would expect the range to hold till the rest of the year.
The Asian indices are trading mixed owinf to bad service sector report out of US and an expected drop in US retail sales due for release next week. The Nikkei (10005) is already up 10% this week and is once again trading above 10000 owing to weaker Yen. There's Resistance on Nikkei near 10100. The Shanghai (3272) is up 0.23% while the Hang Seng and All Ordinaries are down 0.65% and 1.25% respectively. The Sensex (17185.68) had seen some profit taking yesterday. After rising 1.11% higher towards 17361 yesterday, it closed the day with modest gains. The Resistance at 17400 on Sensex is still holding and we shall have to see if it continues to hold for the rest of the year.
Crude (75.82) continued its downmove as the ISM service sector index dropped to 48.7 which has added further downside pressure to the unexpected increase in the Crude inventories data released on Wednesday. If the current downside momentum continues we might see the Commodity moving down further towards 75-74 in the coming days.
Gold (1203.50) has fallen sharply from yesterday's high of 1227.50 and is now trading just above 1200. Immediate Support levels seen are 1200 and 1190 a break below which might pull it down towards 1180-70. However, the broader picture continue to remain bullish for a target of 1250 or even higher.
The Euro (1.5061) has come off from yesterday's high of 1.5140 and if it continues to trade lower, we might see it moving down towards the Support at the 21-DMA (1.4975). Dollar-Yen (88.24) has risen yesterday as expected. A break above 88.50 (21-DMA) might see 89.10 on the upside today. While below 88.50, we might see 87.50-00 on the downside once again. Euro-Yen (132.85) Cross has fallen from 133.55. A break below 132.50 might pull it down towards 131.80-50 today.
The Pound (1.6538) has fallen sharply from yesterday's high of 1.6721. With Resistance at 1.6600 we might see it testing the Support in 1.6480-50 region today. Aussie (0.9241) is trading lower. Support is seen at 0.9200, a break below which might bring back the threat of Trend reversal and pull it down towards 0.9100. Swiss (1.0005) is continuing to trade silent with overal bearish bias.
The Korean-Won is trading near 1151 and Dollar-Rupee has opened at 46.20/22.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.26%. The yields on US Treasuries rose for the third day in succession. The 2Y and 10Y benchmark Treasuries were quoting 1 and 7 bps higher at 0.73% and 3.38% respectively.
The ECB has kept the interest rates unchanged at 1.00% yesterday. It raised its growth forecasts for Eurozone -4% percent this year and +0.8% percent in 2010, a slight hike from estimates made in September. ECB president Trichet indicated that the current rates are â€˜appropriateâ€™ and inflationary pressures were likely to remain subdued in the near future.
12:00 GMT Oct CA Labour Force
...Expected 15.3K...Previous -43.2K
01:30 GMT Nov US NFP
...Expected -111K...Previous - 190K
EU GDP Q3 '09 (Pre)
...Actual 0.4%...Previous 0.4%
EU Retail Sales
...Actual 0.0%...Previous -0.5%
E-15 ECB Announcement
...Actual 1.00%...Previous 1.00%
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