Forex Blog - European Market Update: Consolidation underway ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls data (Trade the News)
Friday, December 04, 2009
European Market Update: Consolidation underway ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls data
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (SP) Spain Oct Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -12.9%% v -12.7% prior; Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -9.2% v -12.7% prior - (CZ) Czech Q3 Avg Real Wage Y/Y: 4.7% v 1.7% prior - (SZ) Swiss Nov CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.1%e - (DE) Denmark Oct Industrial Production M/M: -1.8% v -1.4% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: -14.8% v 42.7% prior - (UK) UK Nov New car Registrations Y/Y: 57.6% v 31.6% prior - (UK) UK Q3 Construction Output Q/Q: +2.0%; Y/Y: -8.0% - (GR) Greece Q3 Final GDPQ/Q: -0.4% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.6% prior - (MA) Malaysia Oct Trade Balance (MYR) 11.5B: v 9.2Be; Exports Y/Y: +1.6% v -10.5%e; Imports Y/Y: -2.3% v -12.3%e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets look set for a correction ahead of US employment data and renewal of concerns tied to South West Asia. Following a mixed close in Asia, European markets have opened to the downside and continued in negative territory. Banks and financial names in particular have continued their rough weak. UK press articles regarding debt negotiations between banks and Dubai World, along with the fall in Nakheel bond prices has led this rotation. Bank of America [BAC] pricing its common equivalent securities after the NY close yesterday sent those shares lower in Frankfurt and added to the sector sentiment. UBS analysts cutting Greek banks and concerns from the UK gov on banks failing to meet lending requirements added further weight. Hochtief's [HOT.GE] decision to cancel its Concessions Unit IPO [HCO.GE] (blaming capital market concerns and Dubai) further tempered risk sentiment. Some notable outperformers included British Airways [BAY.UK] following an upgrade from Citi and VW [VOW.GE] ahead of its EGM and management comments. Trading volumes have remained very low and markets have continued to slide lower ahead of the US non-farm payroll report.
-In individual equities: Bellway [BWY.UK]: Provides interim management statement; reservations 51% ahead y/y from an average of 176 sites v 171 sites y/y. || Hochtief [HOT.GE]: Confirms end of listing for Concessions Unit; could not realize target value. ||
- Speakers: China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) commented that the country's reserves were still anchored in USD. The FX regulator noted that it would diversify its reserves among major currencies and high-quality assets but added that the USD status as main reserve currency would not change in near term. The regulator noted that its foreign reserves have supported its energy imports. During Asia the regulator commented that there would not any big adjustments in China's FX reserves management and saw US dollar weakening trend as a long-term process || German Bundesbank published its bi-annual economic outlook. It did note that its outlook in Germany for the next two years had "brightened perceptively." But did note the recovery was driven by "extensive" monetary and fiscal stimulus. It saw exports, business investment and private consumption gaining in importance as stimulus measures waned. It saw German unemployment rising from the current 8.1% level to 10.1% by 2011. It saw the price climate as remaining benign into 2011 || ECB's Liikanen commented that the Euro-zone economy had bottomed as evident by recent hard data. He noted that the special stimulus measures have been effective. He stressed that the ECB's monetary stance had not changed as the economic recovery could be uneven. He did reiterated ECB view that all liquidity measures are not needed as much as before and that the withdrawal process to absorb excesses funds would be gradual. There was no need to change interest rate expectations and saw no risks to central bank's price stability mandate (which remains ECB's top priority in the medium term). He stated that he saw little risk of new asset bubbles at this time || World Bank's Pres Zoellick commented that India's GDP could be between 8% to 9% within the next two years if the country invests in its infrastructure. He note that India will play a major role in the global economic recovery || Japanese Govt Spokesperson Hirano commented that he expected govt to decide on extra stimulus on Monday || Sweden Finance Ministry provided budget deficit outlook and stated that it expected the budget to be balanced by 2014 || EU's Juncker commented that he saw no risk of a Greek sovereign default. EU will stress that Greece take more action on its budget || German Lower House passed Merkel's tax cut bill; needs approval in the Upper (currently scheduled for Dec 18)
- Currencies: The USD maintaining a holding pattern into the NY morning ahead of the US Nonfarm payroll data. The dollar began the European session on a cautious note after China FX regulator noted that China would continue with its diversification process of its reserves among the major currencies and high-quality assets. The agency did add that the USD status as main reserve currency would not change in near term. The EUR/USD consolidating within the upper limit of an alleged binary option that is said to roll off at one point today (exacting timing whether London or NY cut was unclear). - The USD/JPY holding above the pivotal 88.00 level throughout the morning. A Morgan Stanley analyst commented that currency intervention risks were rising, pair has moved beyond its fundamentals. The GBP was former aided by the comments out of China on reserve diversification. GBP/USD at 1.6625
- Fixed Income: The ECB's decision to fix its upcoming LTRO at the 12 month average refi rate is still being debated, alongside the complex musings from Trichet' accompanying press conference. In some respects the market appears to have decided the liquidity party is coming to an end. With Greek banks largely perceived as the most dependant on ECB funding that country's yield spreads have blown out again versus Bunds, 15bps wider on the day and approaching Bunds +185bps. That Greek banks, and the financials as a whole are under pressure in equity markets is no co-incidence. Meanwhile the Germany yield curve is steepened, with the short end outperforming, partially in a flight to quality but no doubt the fact that Trichet was at pains to point out that no signals on rates can be inferred from the decision o the LTRO has also played a part. The UK yield curve has tracked Germany's and steepened while Treasuries are enjoying decent bid acrpss the curve in European trading. The 30yr bond is the best performer, with the yield shedding some 6.5bps to sit at 4.3250% as we go to press.
- Energy: Gulf Official commented that the upcoming OPEC meeting in Angola would stress compliance among its members and stated that OPEC would likely maintain its current level of output. Have seen signs of global economic recovery and expected to see demand recovery being driven by China and India. He did observe that oil inventories continue to hold above its 5 year averages
- In the papers: UK Guardian article noted that Dubai World creditors, including UK banks RBS and Standard Chartered, may reject the standstill agreement proposed by the company, extending negotiations over the $26B debt restructuring -
***Notes: - UK press reporting that creditors to refuse Dubai World deal. Dubai World plea to halt int payments to be turned down. - Markets to focus on US Nonfarm payroll data. When will it finally read positive? For the time being the market seemed to ignore the recent drop off in service pmi's - Japan Denies rumors that it sought to sell $100B in US Treasuries
***Looking Ahead: US payrolls to be key - (RU) Russian Nov Consumer price Index M/M: % v 0.4%e; Y/Y: % v 9.3%e; CPI YTD: % v 8.5%e - (RU) Russia Nov CPI Core M/M: % v 0.4%e; CPI Core YTD: % v 8.2%e - (IR) Irish Oct House Prices Y/Y: % v 13.1% prior - 7:00 (CA) Canadian Nov Unemployment Rate: 8.6%e v 8.6% prior, Net Change in employment: 15.0Ke v -43.2K prior - 7:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Vehicle Production: No est v 317.5K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 294.5K prior -0 7:30 (EU) Ecb;s Bini Smaghi speaks in London - 8:30 (US) Nov Change in Non-farm payrolls: -125Ke v -190K prior; Manufacturing payrolls: -45Ke v -61K prior - 8:30 (US) Unemployment Rate: 10.2%e v 10.2% prior - 8:30 (US) Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior, Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.4% prior, Avg Weekly Hours: 33.1e v 33.0 prior - 10:00 (CA) Canadian Nov Ivey Purchasing Managers Index: 60.0e v 61.2 prior - 10:00 (US) Oct Factory Orders: 0.0%e v 0.9% prior -10:00 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks in Philadelphia - 10:00 (TU) Turkey Oct Trade Balance: -3.0Be v -4.0B prior - 13:15 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks in Philadelphia - 13:30 (MX) Mexico Nov Consumer Confidence: 79.0e v 77.0 prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.