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Friday December 4, 2009 - 11:10:55 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Consolidation underway ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls data (Trade the News)

Friday, December 04, 2009 5:59:12 AM

 European Market Update: Consolidation underway ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls data


- (SP) Spain Oct Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -12.9%% v -12.7% prior; Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -9.2% v -12.7% prior
- (CZ) Czech Q3 Avg Real Wage Y/Y: 4.7% v 1.7% prior
- (SZ) Swiss Nov CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.1%e
- (DE) Denmark Oct Industrial Production M/M: -1.8% v -1.4% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: -14.8% v 42.7% prior
- (UK) UK Nov New car Registrations Y/Y: 57.6% v 31.6% prior
- (UK) UK Q3 Construction Output Q/Q: +2.0%; Y/Y: -8.0%
- (GR) Greece Q3 Final GDPQ/Q: -0.4% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.6% prior
- (MA) Malaysia Oct Trade Balance (MYR) 11.5B: v 9.2Be; Exports Y/Y: +1.6% v -10.5%e; Imports Y/Y: -2.3% v -12.3%e

- Equities: European equity markets look set for a correction ahead of US employment data and renewal of concerns tied to South West Asia. Following a mixed close in
Asia, European markets have opened to the downside and continued in negative territory. Banks and financial names in particular have continued their rough weak. UK press articles regarding debt negotiations between banks and Dubai World, along with the fall in Nakheel bond prices has led this rotation. Bank of America [BAC] pricing its common equivalent securities after the NY close yesterday sent those shares lower in Frankfurt and added to the sector sentiment. UBS analysts cutting Greek banks and concerns from the UK gov on banks failing to meet lending requirements added further weight. Hochtief's [HOT.GE] decision to cancel its Concessions Unit IPO [HCO.GE] (blaming capital market concerns and Dubai) further tempered risk sentiment. Some notable outperformers included British Airways [BAY.UK] following an upgrade from Citi and VW [VOW.GE] ahead of its EGM and management comments. Trading volumes have remained very low and markets have continued to slide lower ahead of the US non-farm payroll report.

-In individual equities: Bellway [BWY.UK]: Provides interim management statement; reservations 51% ahead y/y from an average of 176 sites v 171 sites y/y. || Hochtief [HOT.GE]: Confirms end of listing for Concessions Unit; could not realize target value. ||

- Speakers:
China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) commented that the country's reserves were still anchored in USD. The FX regulator noted that it would diversify its reserves among major currencies and high-quality assets but added that the USD status as main reserve currency would not change in near term. The regulator noted that its foreign reserves have supported its energy imports. During Asia the regulator commented that there would not any big adjustments in China's FX reserves management and saw US dollar weakening trend as a long-term process || German Bundesbank published its bi-annual economic outlook. It did note that its outlook in Germany for the next two years had "brightened perceptively." But did note the recovery was driven by "extensive" monetary and fiscal stimulus. It saw exports, business investment and private consumption gaining in importance as stimulus measures waned. It saw German unemployment rising from the current 8.1% level to 10.1% by 2011. It saw the price climate as remaining benign into 2011 || ECB's Liikanen commented that the Euro-zone economy had bottomed as evident by recent hard data. He noted that the special stimulus measures have been effective. He stressed that the ECB's monetary stance had not changed as the economic recovery could be uneven. He did reiterated ECB view that all liquidity measures are not needed as much as before and that the withdrawal process to absorb excesses funds would be gradual. There was no need to change interest rate expectations and saw no risks to central bank's price stability mandate (which remains ECB's top priority in the medium term). He stated that he saw little risk of new asset bubbles at this time || World Bank's Pres Zoellick commented that India's GDP could be between 8% to 9% within the next two years if the country invests in its infrastructure. He note that India will play a major role in the global economic recovery || Japanese Govt Spokesperson Hirano commented that he expected govt to decide on extra stimulus on Monday || Sweden Finance Ministry provided budget deficit outlook and stated that it expected the budget to be balanced by 2014 || EU's Juncker commented that he saw no risk of a Greek sovereign default. EU will stress that Greece take more action on its budget || German Lower House passed Merkel's tax cut bill; needs approval in the Upper (currently scheduled for Dec 18)

- Currencies: The USD maintaining a holding pattern into the NY morning ahead of the US Nonfarm payroll data. The dollar began the European session on a cautious note after China FX regulator noted that
China would continue with its diversification process of its reserves among the major currencies and high-quality assets. The agency did add that the USD status as main reserve currency would not change in near term. The EUR/USD consolidating within the upper limit of an alleged binary option that is said to roll off at one point today (exacting timing whether London or NY cut was unclear).
- The USD/JPY holding above the pivotal 88.00 level throughout the morning. A Morgan Stanley analyst commented that currency intervention risks were rising, pair has moved beyond its fundamentals. The GBP was former aided by the comments out of
China on reserve diversification. GBP/USD at 1.6625

- Fixed Income: The ECB's decision to fix its upcoming LTRO at the 12 month average refi rate is still being debated, alongside the complex musings from Trichet' accompanying press conference. In some respects the market appears to have decided the liquidity party is coming to an end. With Greek banks largely perceived as the most dependant on ECB funding that country's yield spreads have blown out again versus Bunds, 15bps wider on the day and approaching Bunds +185bps. That Greek banks, and the financials as a whole are under pressure in equity markets is no co-incidence. Meanwhile the
Germany yield curve is steepened, with the short end outperforming, partially in a flight to quality but no doubt the fact that Trichet was at pains to point out that no signals on rates can be inferred from the decision o the LTRO has also played a part. The UK yield curve has tracked Germany's and steepened while Treasuries are enjoying decent bid acrpss the curve in European trading. The 30yr bond is the best performer, with the yield shedding some 6.5bps to sit at 4.3250% as we go to press.

- Energy: Gulf Official commented that the upcoming OPEC meeting in
Angola would stress compliance among its members and stated that OPEC would likely maintain its current level of output. Have seen signs of global economic recovery and expected to see demand recovery being driven by China and India. He did observe that oil inventories continue to hold above its 5 year averages

- In the papers: UK Guardian article noted that Dubai World creditors, including UK banks RBS and Standard Chartered, may reject the standstill agreement proposed by the company, extending negotiations over the $26B debt restructuring -

- UK press reporting that creditors to refuse Dubai World deal. Dubai World plea to halt int payments to be turned down.
- Markets to focus on US Nonfarm payroll data. When will it finally read positive? For the time being the market seemed to ignore the recent drop off in service pmi's
- Japan Denies rumors that it sought to sell $100B in US Treasuries

***Looking Ahead: US payrolls to be key
- (RU) Russian Nov Consumer price Index M/M: % v 0.4%e; Y/Y: % v 9.3%e; CPI YTD: % v 8.5%e
- (RU) Russia Nov CPI Core M/M: % v 0.4%e;
CPI Core YTD: % v 8.2%e
- (IR) Irish Oct House Prices Y/Y: % v 13.1% prior
- 7:00 (CA) Canadian Nov Unemployment Rate: 8.6%e v 8.6% prior, Net Change in employment: 15.0Ke v -43.2K prior
- 7:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Vehicle Production: No est v 317.5K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 294.5K prior
-0 7:30 (EU) Ecb;s Bini Smaghi speaks in London
- 8:30 (US) Nov Change in Non-farm payrolls: -125Ke v -190K prior; Manufacturing payrolls: -45Ke v -61K prior
- 8:30 (US) Unemployment Rate: 10.2%e v 10.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior, Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.4% prior, Avg Weekly Hours: 33.1e v 33.0 prior
- 10:00 (CA) Canadian Nov Ivey Purchasing Managers Index: 60.0e v 61.2 prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Factory Orders: 0.0%e v 0.9% prior
-10:00 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks in Philadelphia
- 10:00 (TU) Turkey Oct Trade Balance: -3.0Be v -4.0B prior
- 13:15 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks in Philadelphia
- 13:30 (MX) Mexico Nov Consumer Confidence: 79.0e v 77.0 prior


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