Non-Farm Payrolls Report to Set Tone in Forex Market
The U.S. Dollar Index withstood another test of the low for
the week at 74.31 and last weekâ€™s low at 74.27 on Thursday.The higher close was impressive, but this
market is still lower for the week. Overnight action has been mixed but strong
upside momentum could trigger a challenge of last weekâ€™s close at 75.04.If you want to be safe about the long-side,
it is suggested that you wait until this market clears 75.66 before considering
The U.S. Dollar traded in a relatively tight range against a
basket of currencies overnight ahead of this morningâ€™s U.S. employment report.Traders are looking for an improvement today
from the November report.Guesses are
for a job loss of â€śonlyâ€ť 125,000 and for the unemployment rate to hold steady
at 10.2 percent.There is some debate as
to whether this is the low for the unemployment rate.At this time the consensus agrees the rate
will stay the same this month, but is likely to rise to 10.5 percent by the end
of the first quarter 2010.
Ask most economists if the unemployment rate is a lagging or
leading indicator, and they will tell you it lags the economy.At this time, I think traders are looking at
the unemployment rate as a â€śpseudoâ€ť leading indicator.This is why I believe the Dollar will benefit
the most from a better than expected figure.
Yesterday, the EUR USD rallied early in the session
following the announcement from the European Central Bank that it would begin
withdrawing its stimulus money from the Euro Zone economy, but backed-off last
weekâ€™s high at 1.5144 when ECB President Trichet called for a stronger Dollar.
This price remains the strongest resistance at this time.Weakness could push this market back to
The GBP USD is rallying ahead of this morningâ€™s U.S.
Non-Farm Payrolls Report.Traders are
expecting a choppy, two-sided trade over the next few days as market
participants adjust positions ahead of next weekâ€™s Bank of England meeting.Early calls are for interest rates to remain
unchanged and for the BoE to maintain its asset-buyback plan.Yesterday, worries over a weakening economy
helped to pressure the December British Pound, but there is still not enough
evidence to say that a secondary lower top has been formed.
The USD JPY is trading in an inside range overnight with a
slight bias to the downside.On
Thursday, the Yen traded lower for a third straight day.Earlier in the week, the Bank of Japan
announced another stimulus plan designed to promote economic growth. Pressure could be on this currency until
December 17th when the BoJ holds its formal meeting.Traders are nervous about holding long
positions because of the possibility of an intervention.Currently, this market is testing a major 50%
price at 88.57.There could be a
technical bounce to the downside from this level, but a failure to hold could
trigger a further rally to 89.46.
The USD CAD is trading weaker ahead of this morningâ€™s U.S. and
Canadian Employment Reports, but it still remains inside of a key retracement
zone at 1.0537 to 1.0459.Trichetâ€™s call
for a stronger Dollar helped pressure the December Canadian Dollar yesterday,
but the most bearish influence came from lower equities and flat crude oil.Traders seem to be reluctant to rally the Canadian
Dollar out of fear of action by the Bank of Canada to depress the currency.
The closing price reversal top was confirmed last night in
the AUD USD but there was no follow-through selling.The current chart pattern suggests a break to
.9133 to .9089 is likely if the downswing continues.The overnight move is likely short-covering
ahead of todayâ€™s U.S.
employment report..9322 remains the
main objective for bullish traders.A
move through this price will turn the main trend back up on the daily chart and
could trigger an acceleration to the upside.
Short-covering and profit-taking following yesterdayâ€™s late
session sell-off is helping to boost the NZD USD.Resistance remains inside the retracement
range of .7272 to .7332.Downtrending
Gann angle resistance is at .7315.On
the downside, the main objective following yesterdayâ€™s closing price reversal
top is .7160 to .7128.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
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