On Friday the U.S. Dollar posted its biggest gain in weeks
against a basket of currencies.The
strong up move was triggered by a better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls Report
which showed a decrease in the unemployment rate from 10.2% to 10%.The pace of job losses also declined and
there was a revision to the better in October.
Traders bought the Dollar on the thought the Fed would begin
reducing stimulus and raising interest rates sooner than previously estimated.
Technically, the move in the Dollar was only one week up,
but it did lay the groundwork for a further rally next week by taking out last
weekâ€™s high at 75.66.The weekly chart
is the one to watch for the best change in trend indicator.At this time the main trend will turn up when
this index crosses the November top at 77.50.
The short-term range is 77.50 to 74.27.The retracement zone of this range at 75.89
to 76.27 is near-term resistance.Weâ€™ve
seen this move before twice previously over the past 6 months.In June the index rallied from 79.12 to 82.25
or 3.13 points.In August the index
rallied 77.80 to 79.97 or 2.27.This
means that the current rally has to exceed both 76.54 and 77.40 before
overbalancing the previous rallies. Basically, the shorts have to sweat until
77.50 is taken out.
The EUR USD finished the week lower.The possibility of the Fed raising rates
before the European Central Bank triggered the selling pressure in the
Euro.The last high at 1.5144 has not
been confirmed yet on the weekly chart.The main trend will turn down on the weekly chart when 1.4625 is
violated.Earlier this week, the ECB
voted to leave interest rates unchanged.It also announced the end to its stimulus packages.Additional selling pressure hit this market
when ECB President Trichet said he wanted to see a stronger Dollar.
The GBP USD closed lower for the week. The current daily
chart pattern suggests the formation of a secondary lower top at 1.6720.The short-term retracement area at 1.6495 to
1.6442 is providing some minor support.A trade through 1.6271 turns the main trend down.Next week the Bank of England meets to
discuss monetary policy.Look for
interest rates to remain unchanged while the BoE leaves its asset buyback
Todayâ€™s employment report signals the Fed may raise rates
before the BoE.
The reversal of carry trade positions helped send the USD
JPY sharply higher.The friendly
employment numbers forced traders to buy U.S. Dollars to pay back borrowed
funds and short borrowed Japanese Yen.Earlier in the week, the Bank of Japan helped put in the top in the
Japanese Yen when it announced another stimulus plan.Talk of a possible intervention also
pressured the Yen.
Last weekâ€™s closing price reversal in the USD CHF froze the
market for most of this week.This
bottom was triggered by an intervention by the Swiss National Bank.Todayâ€™s rally was a confirmation of that
reversal bottom.The charts indicate
that a breakout over 1.0222 is possible next week.The sharp break in gold also helped fuel the
rally in the Dollar against the Swiss Franc.
It was a struggle most of the day, but the USD CAD managed
to close higher for the day.A bullish
Canadian employment report negated the good news from the U.S. government
regarding its employment, but buying forces were able to overcome the selling
pressure late in the trading session.Another bullish factor is the close above a key retracement zone at
1.0459 to 1.05375.Upside momentum could
take this currency pair to 1.0730 - 1.0748 next week.
Weak demand for higher yielding currencies helped the AUD
USD form another lower top at .9312.This was just under a previous top at .9322.The short term range is .8946 to .9312.The market is holding support at the
retracement zone at .9133 to .9089.This
pair will have to get through this zone to accelerate to the downside.Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia
announced a 25 basis point rate hike to 3.75%, but helped limit gains by saying
inflation was under control because of the recent rate increases.A hike in U.S. rates will tighten up the
interest rate differential between the Dollar and the Aussie.This is likely to keep the downside pressure
on this currency until investors have adjusted their long positions.
A possible adjustment in the interest rate differential also
helped pressure the NZD USD today.The
rally earlier in the week stopped inside of a retracement zone at .7272 to
.7332 created by the main range of .7523 to .7022.This led to fresh selling pressure which
drove this currency pair into another retracement zone at .7160 to .7128.There was a technical bounce off of this
level on Friday, but expectations are with the main trend down for rallies to
attract additional selling pressure next week.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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