Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Sunday December 6, 2009 - 19:22:01 GMT
Share This Story
InnerFX - www.innerfx.com
Short-term outlook (12/07-12/11)
Despite several attempts to breach higher last week, the euro failed to hold gains as the dollar rallied across the board on Friday, as a result of better than expected unemployment figures. The 270 points decline of Friday has cleared half of euroâ€™s gains accumulated during the previous two months, hence December started by favoring the dollar bulls. Is this the time of a prolonged correction? Could beâ€¦ but I maintain my positive view on EUR against the buck, for now, treating such declines as potential opportunities to re-initiate EUR long positions. Speaking of current market conditions â€“ short-term sentiment is slightly bearish due to recent rejection into the 1.5150 region along with Fridayâ€™s collapse below the 1.49 handle, back into the key support region around 1.4850. A rising trend line support coming from Julyâ€™s low at 1.3830 has been reached and limited intra-day losses but in case of the declineâ€™s resumption within the coming trading sessions, we should focus towards the next support levels â€“ into the 1.4700/30 and 1.4600 regions. In case of a recovery, which at this moment seem more plausible to me, I expect the 1.5000 mark, along with 1.5050, to provide a minor barrier â€“ a lot weaker than before (during October and November). A sustained breach above the 1.5 handle would also turn momentum positive, signaling that the correction is over. Also keep an eye on the S&P500 as important levels are still intact into the upside â€“ the 1113 barrier which is still intact, despite several attempts to breach higher along with false breaks/spikes to as high as 1119. Another key barrier is the median retracement of the long-term decline from 1576 to 666.75 which is set at 1121. Due to the solid correlation between EURUSD and S&P500: no sustained break above 1113 -> no breach above the 1.5100/50 region, simple as that.
EURUSD daily chart
S&P500 daily chart
The superior band of the uptrend channel (seen in the chart below) is, once again, providing support on current pullback. In case of a break lower, next downside barriers into the 1126 and 1100 regions may limit losses. Short-term sentiment shows some bearish signs but it was about time to look for a correction â€“ because it canâ€™t just climb to record highs forever, right? However, if the correction continues â€“ below 1100, bulls should start to worry. On a medium term basis â€“ uptrend is intact and extended dips will favor further buying.
Gold short-term chart
Gold daily chart
In my previous article, when cable was trying to recover some ground pushing on the 1.6600 handle from below, I pointed out that more selling towards 1.64 was likely â€“ further weakness emerging, as expected, and cable printed session lows around 1.6420 before closing the week .36% lower. Downside remains favored for now, and a break above 1.6700 is needed to confirm the positive bias. Recent hesitation into the 1.6700 zone confirms the indecision of both bulls and bears and the 1.6270-1.6700 range will probably remain valid for now. However, the said 1.6270/00 support region may limit extended losses and provide a reversal point, as thatâ€™s quite an important level.
GBPUSD daily chart
Former support provided by the rising trend line coming from .6475 of July has provided a stable resistance on last upside attempts into the .7280/00 region. A break was needed to resume uptrend but selling into rallies favored the current decline which extended to as low as .7130 on Friday. Although NZDâ€™s losses have been relatively smaller comparing to EUR (-0.86% vs. -1.37%), there are no signs of uptrendâ€™s recovery yet. Below current market levels, important support is formed around .7050 by the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of .6685 â€“ .7635. Weâ€™ll see how it reacts if current decline continues.
NZDUSD daily chart
Thank you for reading this article and I wish you a great week! Happy trading!
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Register To Test Your Amazing Trader
Trading Ideas for 12 March 2018
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 12 Mar 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction
Tue 13 Mar 2018
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
AA 12:30 US- CPI
A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction
Wed 14 Feb 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction
Thu 15 Mar 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI
A 12:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 16 Mar 2018
A 10:00 EZ- final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube
Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.