Sunday December 6, 2009 - 21:42:46 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex Research - Morning Report
Morning Report Monday 7 December 2009
News and views
In a seemingly odd evening for correlations, good economic news was met by a sell-off of risk instruments. The large positive surprise in the US payrolls data release on Friday night raised expectations of an earlier start to the Fed's tightening cycle, and interest rates rose accordingly. Higher US yields meant US dollars became more attractive to hold, and that in turn was a negative for risk currencies and commodities. US interest rate markets will now be more closely watched, holding one key to the possibility of a US dollar revival. US 2yr note yields rose around 13bp on the payrolls news, closing 11bp higher, 10yr notes closing 9bp higher. Fed funds futures are now pricing a 50% chance of a June hike, from no chance a week ago. Commodities were down around 1% on average (CRB index), gold underperforming at -3.8%. The S&P500 managed to close up 0.6%.
The US dollar bounced around 1.5% from its week-old base on the interest rate implications of the payrolls news. EUR plunged from just above 1.5050 to 1.4822, opening around 1.4865 this morning. JPY lost the most ground against the dollar, from 88.00 to 90.77, on expectations the yen could again become the carry currency of choice (based on policy trajectories of the Fed and BoJ, respectively).
AUD peaked at 0.9294 just before the US data, and then fell to 0.9109. It opens at 0.9150 this morning.
NZD fell from 0.7272 to 0.7135, and opens at 0.7155. AUD/NZD was only slightly lower, to 1.2750.
US non-farm payrolls fell 11k in November, comfortably beating all market forecasts (median was -125k). Furthermore, a massive 159k of upward revisions saw the previous two months go from much worse to slightly better than our original forecasts. Indeed, large positive revisions over recent surveys have helped turn a potential Chernobyl into a mere Three Mile Island, although the annual revisions next year are likely to add back a sizeable number of job losses. The industry breakdown showed fewer job losses in construction (-27k) and stronger growth in services (+58k), particularly for temp workers (+52k), often a sign of improved employer confidence. In contrast, manufacturing contracted at a similar pace to recent months (-41k). The separate household survey recorded a gain of 227k jobs, which along with a slight drop in the participation rate, shaved the unemployment rate down from 10.2% to 10%. This jobs measure is more volatile, and the November reading follows three months of outsized declines relative to the payrolls survey.
US factory orders rose 0.6% in October, and September was revised from 0.9% to 1.6%, both stronger than expected. The value of durable goods orders fell 0.6% as previously reported, while non-durables rose by 1.6%, led by a 6% rise in petroleum prices.
UK construction output rose 2.0% in Q3, a sharp upward revision from the 1.1% decline reported in the second Q3 GDP estimate. This suggests Q3 growth could be revised from -0.3% to -0.1% on the final estimate.
Canada employment surged 79k in November, the strongest since September 2008, but continuing the see-saw pattern of recent months. The unemployment rate ticked slightly lower to 8.5%. A 0.1% in hourly earnings and a 0.3% fall in hours worked suggest the underlying trend to still soft.
Canada's Ivey PMI fell from 61.2 to 55.9 in November. This series is not seasonally adjusted, but November has no clear seasonal pattern, which suggests that at least some of the slippage is genuine.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook today: AUD's break below its post-March trend support on Friday is worrying, and cautions against bull-strategies today. NZD continues to look soggy, remaining under its 55day moving average.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. Â© 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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