Tuesday February 22, 2005 - 09:29:35 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 22/2/2005
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $48.4 level, unchanged due to Monday US holiday. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average unchanged at 10.790.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3175 level. After breaking the 1.3085 resistance (38.2% retracement level of the previous downleg), pair has surged to test the 50% fibonacci retracement level, and at the time of this writing it is also trading above the 50-day moving average. Pair has regained momentum and USD bulls only have the 1.33 barrier as their last chance to negate the single currency from making new historical highs. 1.3085 the current support for the pair now. Shorts only advisable around 1.33 or on a break of the current support level.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2618. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter moving averages for some time now, with the 20-day down the 50-day. Pair is now above them both.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Positive – no signal. Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Positive.
Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.9080 level. Pair has followed to perfection the bullish daily signal it triggered some days ago and it has currently broken the 50% retracement level of the previous downleg, and the next strong resistance is placed around 1.9170. It confirms the 1.85 level to be a strong support for now. Shorts only advisable around 1.9170 , while longs may be resumed around 1.8930 which should serve as good support for now. Very curious that we have a bearish signal on weekly charts, but that the pair is breaking to the upside following dailies, clearly showing the divergence exisiting between these 2 timeframes.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8469. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now. Pair is above them both, though.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Positive (signaled long feb.11, 2005). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive.
Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1695 level. Very weak picture for the USD against the CHF, which has been the leader for the europeans current strength. Pair has almost tested the last fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% at 1.1660, and a break of it will cause further downward pressure to the pair. In just these few hours of trading for today’s session, pair has also broken down the 50-day simple moving average, and as said, it is threatening the last fibo support from the current upleg. Longs advisable around 1.1660, but momentum is almost gone for the pair. Divergence between weekly and daily signals, which make me think of increasing volatilty to come.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2183. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is below them both now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Negative (no signal). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Negative.
Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6905 level. It is trying very hard to break the current downtrend line and it has in fact broken above the 20-day moving average, so it is fighting to regain momentum on the upside. If it consolidates the break, next resistance around 0.6950, which can indeed be very strong for the moment.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6828 today. We have a bearish cross from the 2 moving averages and pair is trading above the 20-day now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR Neutral. Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral-Negative.
Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
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