European Market Update: Sovereign debt rating concerns demanding attention in session (Trade the News)
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
European Market Update: Sovereign debt rating concerns demanding attention in session
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (CH) China Nov passenger car sales +98.2% y/y at 1.03M units - (FI) Finland Q3 GDP Q/Q: +0.3% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -9.1% v -8.8%e - (FR) Nov Bank of France Bus Sentiment: 9 v 95 prior - (FR) French Oct Central Govt Balance:- 134.8Bâ‚¬ v -â‚¬125.8B prior - (HU) Hungary Oct Prelim Industrial Output M/M: 1.8% v 3.7% prior, Y/Y: -10.8% v -12.2%e - (TU) Turkey Oct Industrial Production Y/Y:6.5% v -3.0%e - (CZ) Czech Oct Unemployment Rate: 8.6% v 8.6%e - (CZ) Czech Q3 Current Account (CZK): -779M v -1.1B prior - (UK) Nov Halifax House Prices M/M: 1.4% v 0.6%e; 3mths/Y: -1.6% v -1.5%e - (UK) Oct Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -7.8% v -7.6%e - (UK) Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -7.8% v -7.2%e - (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Inflation: 0.1% v 0.2%e - (GE) German Oct Industrial Production M/M: % v 1.0%e; Y/Y: % v -10.2%e - (UK) CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: v -45 prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets shook off a negative start which had rolled out of Asian trading. The Japanese governmen's' further stimulus of $80.6B failed to stimulate equity markets nor match the expected domestic demand shortfall seen in 2009/10. Prior to the European open JP Morgan analysts cutting their call on Russian equity markets and European Telecom's added further weight to pre-market trading. Earnings releases from the largest UK grocer Tesco [TSCO.UK] with LFL sales below expectations weighed the FTSE100. Markets trended higher from their downside open and regained positive territory through the first forty minutes of trading. Sentiment in the uptrend has been driven by rotation into the tech sector with Infineon [IFX.GE], Alcatel [ALU.FR] and STMicro [STM.FR] top equity movers (expecting an aftermarket US comment from Texas Instruments [TXN]). After market NY guidance and market comments from FedEx [FDX] rallied European shippers with Deutsche Post [DPW.GE] and TNT [TNT.NV] posting strong figures. Into 5:30EST, European markets have attempted to hold on to positive gains on declining trading figures.
-Individual stocks: : Tesco [TSCO.UK]: Provides interim management statement: Reports Q3 UK LFL Sales ex Petrol, Adj +2.8% (range of analysts estimates from +2.7-3.4%e). || Xstrata [XTA.UK]: Confirms plans to close Kidd site in Canada. || ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE]: Abu Dhabi MAR considering stake in submarine unit -Handelsblatt. || Air France [AF.FR]: Reports Nov Load Factor 78.0% v 77.8% y/y. || Lukoil [LKOH.RU]: Reports Q3 Net $2.1B v $2.2Be, Rev $21.9B v $22.4Be. ||
- Speakers: IMF raised its South Korean 2010 GDP forecasts 4.5% from 3.6% prior but noted the outlook had its uncertainties with slowdown in advanced economies being the biggest risk for Korea. IMF also raised 2009 GDP view to economy to grow 0.25% from prior view of contraction of 1.0% commenting that its economy had bounced back impressively.
- Korea should consider cautious withdrawal of monetary policy. Inflationary pressures will remain subdued. || Dubai Finance Chief commented that debt markets were willing to cooperate with Dubai World. He reiterated the view that international media had amplified the crisis in the region. Stressed that Dubai World had the assets and income needed to meet its obligations|| ECB's Trichet reiterated the view that the Euro-Zone economy was no longer in free fall but a bumpy road remained ahead. He stressed that it was important that Governments meet deadlines to bring debt back under control as the credibility of Euro-Zone depended on sound budgets. It was vital for euro zone governments to get debt levels back in order within the 2012 or 2013 deadlines. Trichet reiterated that it would gradually remove special measures. Bad assets were not the main concern relating to banks but they must strengthen balance sheets and hold profits. He cautioned that banks should not embark on large dividends and be careful on remunerations. Lastly he stressed that the ECB's mandate is price stability || China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)'s Yi Gang commented following the conclusions of the central government's annual economic planning meeting: Yi noted that China would expand its imports and maintain steady its export growth. China would continue with currency reform when opportunities permitted and continue to monitor cross border capital flows closely. He added that currency reform should help promote stable export growth, help increase imports and promote Balance of Payments (BOP) || Germany Econ Min Bruederle stated that 2010 GDP seen in a range between +1.2 %to +1.6% || Moody''s issued its annual Sovereign Credit Report on Poland and maintained its rating outlook at stable. The report noted that Poland''s "A2" government bond ratings were supported by high economic, institutional and government financial strength. Moody's expressed concerns surrounding steeply rising fiscal deficits and deteriorating government debt metrics in the aftermath of the economic crisis, as well as slowed economic growth potential. The fiscal situation has deteriorated significantly and debt ratios are now rising. "However, these concerns are partly alleviated by the favorable currency and maturity structure of the debt, supported by deep local capital markets that act as a natural buyer of government securities || China PBoC Vice Gov Zhu Min commented that China was experiencing a clear "V-shaped" economic recovery and reiterated that the 2009 GDP growth will be at least 8% || German VCI Chemical Industry provided an update for 2009 and 2010. It saw 2009 chemical sales -12.5% and chemical production -10% y/y. It forecasted 2010 chemical sales +6% y/y and production +5% y/y || World Meteorological Org stated that 2009 global temperature was 0.44 degrees above average of 14 degrees Celsius (57 degrees Fahrenheit) . it noted that t his decade was set to be the warmest on record though 2009 would not be the hottest year ||
- Currencies: Sovereign debt concerns seemed to be the motivator of the price action during the European session. The USD and GBP currencies were softer from there opening levels in Asia after Moody's commented that debt ratings on the U.S. and the U.K. might "test the Aaa boundaries" because their public finances are worsening in the wake of the global financial crisis. The Pound Sterling led the weakness as GBP/USD declined by over 100 pips tot test 1.6330 area ahead of the NY morning. The Dollar fared a bit better as it was slightly lower against other major pairs. EUR/USD was briefly below the 1.48 level as dealer chatter circulated of new binary option in place with the 1.4750 cited as the lower parameter. The recent lows in the pair was 1.4760 seen on Monday and remain intact throughout the session. The sovereign concerns were also evident inside the Euro-Zone as the spread between the 10-year Greek and German bonds widened to around 220bps (widest since April 2009).
- Some mild risk appetite was supported after comments from Dubai Finance Chief in which debt markets were willing to cooperate with Dubai World and reassured that the company had the assets and income needed to meet its obligations. Dubai Gov't reiterated that international media had amplified crisis in the region. Nonetheless Moody's announced downgrades of all six Dubai government-related issuers ||
- Fixed Income: Sovereign related concerns are brewing again in Europe with euro-zone peripheral spreads uniformly wider against the core. Greece is again leading the way after being placed on credit watch negative at S&P yesterday. The Greek 10yr yield spread hit fresh 7 month highs at 220bps above Bunds, roughly 30bps wider on the session. Almost simultaneously Moody's downgraded 6 Dubai Government related entities, the net result being a 30 tick jump in March Bunds where resistance was found at 123.25. The UK sold Â£3.75B in Sept 2019s in a relatively weak auction covered 1.81 times. US Treasury yields are lower across the curve with some steepening after dovish rhetoric yesterday from both Bernanke and Dudley. The 2y note yield has established a foothold back below 0.75% while the 10yr is sitting just above 3.40%
- Energy: IEA's Tanaka: Political commitment is need to Copenhagen Summit. IEA opposes the creation of a cartel of natural gas-producing nations, but said such a group could improve market statistics ||
-Credit Crisis: Russian Fin Min Kudrin stated that he would call for worldwide organization to regulate financial markets and would bring up the issue at the framework of the Group of 20 industrialized and developing nations. He also noted that Russia was weak link on global capital markets and felt the effect of this violability on its stock indexes, exchange rate and the country's balance of payments ||
***Notes: - Sovereign bond rating concerns simmer again -Japan's FY2009/10 Bond sales of Â¥53.5Tto exceed tax revenues of Â¥36.9T for the first time since 1945 - Moody's: debt ratings on the U.S. and the U.K. may "test the Aaa boundaries" because their public finances are worsening in the wake of the global financial crisis - Fedex [FDX] guides higher after the bell citing demand in Asia and Latin America
***Looking Ahead: - 7:30 (US)Nov NFIB Small Bus Optimism: No est v 89.1 prior - 7:45 (US) ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales No est v -0.1% prior - 8:15 (CA) Canadian Nov Housing Starts: 160.0Ke v 157.4K prior - 8:55 (US) Redbook Retail Sales: No est v +3.8% prior - 9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: No change expected in the Overnight Lending Rate from the 0.25% level - 10:00 (US) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 48.8e v 47.9 prior - 10:00 (UK) Nov NIESR GDP estimate: No est v -0.4% prior - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 3 year notes
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium Mon 23 Apr 2018 A All Day- Flash PMIs AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 Apr 2018 AA 01:30 AU- CPI A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- CB Confidence A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales Wed 25 Apr 2018 AA 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 Apr 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- ECB Decision A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 27 Apr 2018 AA 03:00 JP- Bank of Japan A 08:00 DE- Employment A 08:30 GB- GDP A 14:00 US- University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.