The USD CAD is trading better ahead of this morningâ€™s Bank
of Canada announcement at 8:00am CT.The
BoC is expected to leave interest rates at 0.25 percent. It should also
reiterate its stance to leave rates historically low until at least July
2010.This statement will be the key to
the marketâ€™s movement today.If they
move up the date then the Canadian Dollar should rally. Following last weekâ€™s
robust increase in the number of jobs created last month, the BoC is no longer
concerned about stagnation in the economy, but it is still worried about the
negative effect a high priced currency will have on exports.The BoC monetary committee is going to have
to be careful in how they word the statement because they donâ€™t want to appear
to bullish on the economy.
The EUR USD is trading lower this morning following a weaker
than expected German Industrial Production Report.This report is taking out some of the steam
in the market following comments from Bernanke which suggested the Fed was not
yet ready to begin raising interest rates.The German report which showed industrial output fell 1.8% in October
was a surprise but remember European Central Bank President Trichet has been
warning that the economic recovery will be bumpy and rough.
Technically overbought conditions are once again helping the
USD JPY give back gains following a huge surge to the upside last Friday
following the release of the better than expected U.S. unemployment rate. The
Dollar is paring gains versus the Yen following comments yesterday by Fed
Chairman Bernanke who reiterated the Fedâ€™s stance that interest rates would
continue to remain low for a â€śprolonged period of timeâ€ť. A sharp drop in equities could provide support
for the U.S. Dollar versus the Yen if traders decide to unwind carry trade
A report showing that U.K. house prices rose for the firth
consecutive month was not enough to ignite buying interest in the GBP USD
overnight, sending the market lower ahead of the New York opening.Industrial Production was unchanged in
October, reminding investors that the economy was still in a weakened
state.Manufacturing output was also
flat.Traders are now concerned that the
economy will not show a strong improvement in GDP during the 4th quarter.
Further complicating the possibility of a recovery is the threat by the U.K. government
to raise taxes and trim spending.
The USD CHF is trading higher overnight. The breakout over
the last swing top at 1.0222 turned the main trend up, but the market rejected
this area late yesterday after buying dried up. Swiss France traders are also
being influenced by the movement in the gold market.A recovery in gold could limit gains in the
USD CHF. On December 10th the Swiss National Bank is expected to leave its
benchmark interest rate unchanged and offer clarity as to its future monetary
policy plans.Most traders expect the
SNB to discuss its concerns about deflation and the possibility of another
round of intervention if the Swiss Franc appreciates too much against the Euro.
The recent spike in the AUD USD took its toll on exports as
the current account deficit widened on a drop in exports.It is estimated that the strong Aussie shaved
as much as 1.8% off the overall economic growth.Signs of weakness in this currency continue
to prevail despite last weekâ€™s rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia.Comments from RBA Governor Stevens regarding
the curtailing of future interest rate hikes is the biggest factor weighing on
the Aussie.Coupled with the possibility
of a rate hike by the Fed sooner than expected, should limit gains.A drop in demand for higher yielding assets
could send this market sharply lower over the near-term.
The trend is down in the NZD USD.Pressure should continue on this currency
pair until there is an increase in demand for higher yielding assets.Tomorrow the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
meets to discuss monetary policy.Expect
it to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.5% until at least the Third Quarter
2010. Unemployment and a drop in exports should help to curtail gains in the
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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