The stronger Dollar led stock market investors to pare
positions as traders become more averse to risk. U.S.
equity markets closed sharply lower following a sell-off which began in Asia
and Europe overnight and spread to the U.S. throughout the day. Traders
are trying to protect profits at the end of the year as chart patterns suggest
there is more downside than upside potential at current levels. Traders are
reacting to global debt concerns a lot faster than they did in 2008.This is leading to the excessive
March Treasury Bonds finished in a strong position after
regaining a key retracement price at 118â€™31.The chart indicates that the next upside target is 123â€™00 to 118â€™15.
March Treasury Notes are in a similar position with 119â€™00
to 119â€™11 the next upside targets.
The Treasury completed the first leg of its $74 billion
auction today without a hitch.There
were concerns before the trading session that investors would be reluctant to
participate in this auction because the recent jump in yields was erased
yesterday following a strong rally.Investors were probably more receptive to todayâ€™s auction because of the
debt problems in Dubai and Greece.
The U.S. Dollar continued to strengthen, but not because of
the possibility of higher interest rates like last Fridayâ€™s rally, but because
of debt concerns and credit ratings.
Investors poured money into the Greenback in a
flight-to-quality rally after Moodyâ€™s cut the credit ratings on six Dubai state-linked
companies. Moodyâ€™s based its decision on the assumption that it cannot assume
the government will back the debt of these companies.
In addition to Dubaiâ€™s credit
downgrade, Moodyâ€™s also issued a stern warning that it may cut the U.S. and U.K. credit rating to below
Aaa.They also added, however, that both
of these nations are â€śresilientâ€ť but nonetheless risk an eventual downgrade if
positive steps arenâ€™t taken to shore up debt finances.
Finally, Fitch credit rating services lowered Greeceâ€™s
credit rating because of its huge debt.
This morning the Bank of Canada announced that interest
rates would remain at 0.25 percent until June 2010 and that it was still
concerned about the strength of the currency and its possible negative affect
on exports.This news helped send an
already weak December Canadian Dollar sharply lower.
The December Euro weakened after breaking the last main
bottom at 1.4801 earlier in the week.The next downside target is 1.4625.The currency was hit hard after the Dubai and Greek credit downgrades. Greeceâ€™s
credit reduction is of particular concern because it could have an affect on
Euro Zone economic activity. An unexpected drop in German industrial production
weighed on this currency before the New
York session even started. Concerns are being raised
regarding the pace of fourth quarter growth in Germany and the Euro Zone.
Currency traders bought the lower yielding December Japanese
Yen on concerns about holding higher risk assets. This rally occurred despite
the approval by the Japanese government of a new $81 billion stimulus
package.Traders did not react to this
news because it was announced last week and was already priced in.
The December British Pound accelerated to the downside today
on concerns that credit problems in Dubai would
spread to U.K.
banks.The threat of a rating cut by
Moodyâ€™s further weakened this currency throughout the day.Further complicating the possibility of an
economic recovery is the threat by the U.K. government to raise taxes and
On December 10th the Swiss National Bank is expected to
leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged and offer clarity as to its future
monetary policy plans.Most traders
expect the SNB to discuss its concerns about deflation and the possibility of
another round of intervention if the Swiss Franc appreciates too much against
After having lost $100 since last Thursday, February Gold finished
lower for the day because of the strengthening Dollar.Key Gann angle support was broken at $1140.
This could lead to a further collapse in this market to at least $1107.00 over
the short-run. Investors are being â€ścoachedâ€ť by gold bug analysts to â€śbuy the
dipsâ€ť, but this strategy could prove to be risky if the Dollar strengthens further.The recent vertical rise in this market
suggests that an asset bubble may have been formed.Without new central bank buying pressure, the
small trader will not have enough money to support another leg higher. March
Silver is in a down trend and currently searching for support in the 17.83 to
March Crude Oil closed under pressure because of lower
equity prices, a stronger Dollar and low demand.A shift in trader mentality out of higher
yielding assets could drop this market into 75.53 to 73.63 over the
near-term.Speculators drove this market
higher and speculators leaving this market will drive it lower.
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Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
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