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Wednesday December 9, 2009 - 03:33:40 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 09-Dec-2009 - 0330 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The Dow (10285.97) and the Nasdaq (2172.99) fell 1% each yesterday as the range of 10250-10500 on the Dow being seen over the last couple of weeks continued to be honoured. We see this range to be maintained till at least the end of this year.

The Asian indices are trading lower for the second day in a row led by weak Q3 GDP numbers. Data showed that the Japanese economy grew 1.3% annualised in Q3 against an initial estimate of 4.8%. The Shanghai (3268.36) is down 0.86% and the Nikkei (10015.62) is down 1.23%. The Sensex (17227.68) which rose 1.44% yesterday may open lower today given the weakness in stocks globally.

COMMODITIES
Crude (73.03) continued its fall and closed lower for the fifth cosecutive day stronger dollar and the increasing US Crude inventories are keeping up the downside pressure. If the Support-turned-Resistance at 73.30 holds, then a strong break below 72.50 might see further dip towards the Trendline Support at 71.50. The US Crude inventory data is due today. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nymexcrudecandle.shtml#candle

Gold (1135.70) fell and closed lower for the third consecutive day as the dollar continued to strengthen. As mentioned earlier significant Support is seen in 1120-00 region which we may expect to hold. However, if the current downside momentum continues a break below 1100 might pull it down towards 1075-50. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/goldcandle.shtml#candle


CURRENCIES
The markets have seen further profit-booking correction yesterday, carrying on to today, but could be nearing important Supports soon. The Euro (1.4735) has seen a low near 1.4668 in early Asia today, hurt by the credit-rating cut in Greece. Still, there is Support at 1.4668 itself and then at 1.4615. The Aussie (0.9058) has been more resilient than the Euro recently and has an important Support at 0.9015 and at 0.89. The Pound (1.6265) has taken the Greek rating cut badly as it is on credit watch by the agencies and the markets itself. A fall towards 1.61 is a decent possibility in the coming days.

Dollar-Yen (88.38) fell sharply yesterday and is setting itself up for wide and volatile range trading between 87 and 90 in the coming days. Japan's GDP has come in worse than expected just now at 1.3% against an expectation of 4.3% (annualised). This underscores the urgent need for the stimulus package that the new government has unveiled earlier this week.

Dollar-Swiss (1.0254) continues to reflect the Euro, with the EUR-CHF Cross remaining stable. A further rise towards 1.0345 is possible where Sellers might come in.

Asian currencies have also taken a hit yesteray and are weak today as well. USD-SGD trades near 1.3941 and might see a further rise towards 1.40. Dollar-Won (1164.20) has hammered out a strong bottom at 1149 over the last several days (thanks to the Bank of Korea) and might rise further towards 1173. Dollar-Rupee had moved up to 46.67 yesterday and may well rise further towards 46.80-90 today, where the NDFs have been quoted recently.


INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.27%. The yields on US Treasuries dipped. The 2Y and 10Y benchmark yields were quoting 2 and 4 bps lower at 0.73% and 3.39% respectively.

In Europe, Fitch has cut Greece's credit rating. There is lurking fear of a cut in credit rating of UK the owing to large fiscal deficits being run by the UK.

The Bank of Canada has kept its key interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. The Bank of England's interest rate announcement is due tomorrow.


DATA TODAY
JP GDP Q3'09 (Pre)
...Actual 0.3%...Previous 1.2%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/jpgdp.shtml

Australia Trade Balance
...Actual A$ -2.38 Bln...Previous A$ -1.85 Bln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/autrbal.shtml

09:30 GMT UK Trade Balance
...Expected $ -6.9 Bln...Previous $ -7.2 Bln


DATA YESTERDAY
BoC Meeting
...Actual 0.25%...Previous 0.25%

 

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