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Wednesday December 9, 2009 - 11:15:40 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 09/12/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 9, 2009
Fundamental Analysis: Trade Balance Index
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Trade Balance index
report Tomorrow (Dec 10), which measures the difference in worth
between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports).
This is the largest component of the US's balance of payments.
Export data gives a reflection on the US growth. Imports provide an
indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy the domestic
currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on
Analysts expect tomorrow's Index to remain stable since last month, indicating a defacit of 36.50 Billions Dollars.
The Euro slightly surpassed the resistance 1.4844 before completely
surrendering to the downtrend. It dropped and successfully reached the
first target 1.4724, and came somehow close to the second target 1.4649
(the low until this very moment is 1.4667). In spite of this big drop,
we still have not made it yet to Fibonacci 38.2% for the long term (for
the rise from 1.3747) at 1.4610. Short-term support is at 1.4649, and
breaking it would mean we will be targeting the above mentioned
Fibonacci level first at 1.4610, and then the support area
1.4510/1.4518 that includes several daily bottoms. Short-term
resistance is at the Asian session high 1.4734, breaking it would mean
that the Euro will have a chance to catch a breath after this big drop.
Breaking this resistance will target at least 1.4847, and may be 1.4903
â€¢ 1.4649: Oct 7th low.
â€¢ 1.4610: Fibonacci 38.2% for the long-term (for the rise from 1.374).
â€¢ 1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows.
â€¢ 1.4734: Asian session high.
â€¢ 1.4847: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139
â€¢ 1.4903: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139
Dollar-Yen broke the rising trendline from 85.07 at 88.75 and
successfully reached the first target 88.33. Breaking this line
indicates there is a continuation of the downside pressures, that
emerged after Fridayâ€™s top, and if it continues, we will break todayâ€™s
support which is yesterdayâ€™s low 88.16, and would target Fibonacci 50%
at 87.78 first, and may be the most important support for the time
being : Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole up-move from 84.81 at 87.08. But
as we can see from the attached chart, the drop stopped at the moving
average SMA100, which could provide a chance for a bounce back up, in
what could be (at least) a correction for the drop from Fridayâ€™s top.
In this case the price will break intraday resistance at 88.48, and
would ideally target the area that is bordered by Fibonacci 38.2% for
the short-term at 89.15 & Fibonacci 61.8% at 89.76.
â€¢ 88.16: yesterdayâ€™s low.
â€¢ 87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
â€¢ 87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
â€¢ 88.48: intraday resistance.
â€¢ 89.15: Fibonacci 38.2% for short-term.
â€¢ 89.76: Fibonacci 38.2% for short-term.
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. For a comprehensive directory of Forex brokers see Forexpros.
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable
for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial
resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.
Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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