The U.S. Dollar is trading weaker overnight after rallying
to a 5-week high.The current rally from
the bottom at 74.27 is stopping short of the November 20th top at 76.50.Technical factors indicate an overbought
market which could correct back to 75.26 over the short-term before taking
another shot at turning the main trend higher.
Concern over global debt issues triggered by credit rating
downgrades in Dubai and Greece should continue to hang over
the market.Traders will be watching
these two nations for signs that their situations are spreading to other
The EUR USD is mounting a mall recovery after selling off
sharply yesterday.The overnight rally
is related to technical factors because the fundamental picture is beginning to
develop a bearish look.The chart
pattern suggests that the next downside target is 1.4625 although a retracement
of the current break is not out of the question.The old bottom at 1.4801 is the first likely
Early this morning the Japanese government released a worse
than expected Third Quarter GDP Report.The actual report showed an increase of 0.3% versus the preliminary
guess of 1.2%.Nonetheless, traders are
reacting to generally weaker global equity markets and risk aversion caused by
debt concerns.Overnight the USD JPY
reached its first retracement objective at 87.80.Further weakness could send this market to
87.10.Oversold short-term conditions
could trigger a short-covering rally back to 88.57.
The GBP USD finally broke through a key 50% price at 1.6287
and the October bottom at 1.6245 overnight, stopping short of a Fib retracement
price at 1.6148.Short-term conditions
led to buying which now has this currency pair in a position to post a daily closing
price reversal bottom.Profit-taking and
short-covering is most likely being triggered by position evening ahead of
tomorrowâ€™s Bank of England policy meeting.The BoE is expected to leave interest rates unchanged and its asset
buyback program untouched.Today the U.K. government
is going to release plans to short up its budget.This may include the proposal of special
taxes on bank bonus pools. Traders will also be keeping an eye on the debt
situation in Dubai
because some U.K. bank may face exposure to the bad debt.
Yesterday the Bank of Canada announced that interest rates
would remain at 0.25 percent until at least June 2010 and that it was still
concerned about the strength of the currency and its possible negative affect
on exports.This news helped send an
already strong USD CAD sharply higher.Overnight
the Canadian Dollar is trading better as profit-takers are controlling the
market. Technically, this currency remains rangebound with trading on both
sides of the 50% price at 1.0598 likely.
Overnight the USD CHF made an attempt to test the November
top at 1.0337 but failed.The current
chart formation suggests a possible closing price reversal top formation at
1.0290.The current loss in the USD CHF
could be extended if gold begins to mount a rally or if traders decide to take
profits ahead of tomorrowâ€™s central bank meeting.
On December 10th the Swiss National Bank is expected to
leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged and offer clarity as to its future
monetary policy plans.Most traders
expect the SNB to discuss its concerns about deflation and the possibility of
another round of intervention if the Swiss Franc appreciates too much against
The AUD USD is mounting a strong recovery after trading
lower overnight.Oversold conditions
triggered profit-taking which led to the current short-covering rally. Last
night it was reported that the Australian economy is beginning to show signs of
weakness after three interest rate hikes.Higher borrowing costs contributed to drops in consumer confidence, home
loans and investment lending.There is a
possibility that this market could rally back to .9167 before selling pressure
Tomorrow traders will be looking for the Reserve Bank of New
Zealand to leave interest rates at 2.5% until at least the Third Quarter 2010
when it makes its monetary policy statement. Unemployment and a drop in exports
continue to slowdown the economy. Overnight the NZD USD turned to the upside
after initial weakness.The current
short-covering rally could trigger a test of .7171 to .7201 before new sellers
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Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
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