Equities Posting Modest Recovery; Treasury to Auction 10-Year Debt
stock index futures are trading better overnight after the inability to
follow-through to the downside following yesterdayâ€™s sell-off triggered a
short-covering rally. The lack of fresh news regarding debt issues in Dubai and Greece
is also encouraging traders to take on more risk.There is nothing in the news that could
change the opinions of traders about the developing short-term weakness in the
markets.This means that this current
rally is likely only short-covering rather than fresh buying.Look for the December E-mini S&P 500 to
falter after a test of 1103.50.
March Treasury Bonds and Notes are trading lower.With debt concerns abating, traders in these
two fixed income instruments are taking profits following a strong two-day
rally.Today the Treasury will auction
10-Year Notes as part of this weekâ€™s $74 billion debt issue.The results of the auction will be released
at the mid-session of trading.
The U.S. Dollar is trading weaker overnight after rallying
to a 5-week high.The current rally from
the bottom at 74.27 is stopping short of the November 20th top at 76.50.Technical factors indicate an overbought
market which could correct back to 75.26 over the short-term before taking
another shot at turning the main trend higher.
Concern over global debt issues triggered by credit rating
downgrades in Dubai and Greece should continue to hang over
the market.Traders will be watching
these two nations for signs that their situations are spreading to other
The December Euro is mounting a mall recovery after selling
off sharply yesterday.The overnight
rally is related to technical factors because the fundamental picture is
beginning to develop a bearish look.The
chart pattern suggests that the next downside target is 1.4625 although a
retracement of the current break is not out of the question.The old bottom at 1.4801 is the first likely
Early this morning the Japanese government released a worse
than expected Third Quarter GDP Report.The actual report showed an increase of 0.3% versus the preliminary
guess of 1.2%.Nonetheless, traders are
reacting to generally weaker global equity markets and risk aversion caused by
debt concerns.Overnight the December
Japanese Yen reached its first retracement objective at 1.1401.Further strengthening could send this market
to 1.1492.Overbought short-term
conditions could trigger a break back to 1.1307.
The December British Pound finally broke through a key 50%
price at 1.6287 and the October bottom at 1.6245 overnight, stopping short of a
Fib retracement price at 1.6148.Short-term conditions led to buying which now has this currency pair in
a position to post a daily closing price reversal bottom.Profit-taking and short-covering is most
likely being triggered by position evening ahead of tomorrowâ€™s Bank of England
policy meeting.The BoE is expected to
leave interest rates unchanged and its asset buyback program untouched.Today the U.K. government is going to release
plans to short up its budget.This may
include the proposal of special taxes on bank bonus pools. Traders will also be
keeping an eye on the debt situation in Dubai
because some U.K. bank may face exposure to the bad debt.
Yesterday the Bank of Canada announced that interest rates
would remain at 0.25 percent until at least June 2010 and that it was still
concerned about the strength of the currency and its possible negative affect
on exports.This news helped send an
already strong U.S. Dollar sharply higher versus the Canadian Dollar.Overnight the December Canadian Dollar is
trading better as profit-takers are controlling the market. Technically, this
currency remains rangebound with trading on both sides of the 50% price at .9410
Overnight the December Swiss Franc made an attempt to test
the November bottom at .9675 but failed.The current chart formation suggests a possible closing price reversal
bottom formation at .9717.The current rally
in the Swiss Franc could be extended if gold begins to mount a rally or if
traders decide to take profits ahead of tomorrowâ€™s central bank meeting.
On December 10th the Swiss National Bank is expected to
leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged and offer clarity as to its future
monetary policy plans.Most traders
expect the SNB to discuss its concerns about deflation and the possibility of
another round of intervention if the Swiss Franc appreciates too much against
Overnight, February Gold failed to take out yesterdayâ€™s low,
leading to the start of this morningâ€™s short-covering rally.Profit-taking in the Dollar is helping to
boost long interest in gold.Given the
current volatility, it is possible that gold could rally all the way back to
$1176.40 in the short-run before selling pressure resumes.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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