An intraday rally in the Dollar is helping to pressure U.S.
stock index futures. Traders are jumping in the Dollar for safety and out of
higher risk assets.Fears that a global
debt crisis is building is causing traders to seek shelter in the Dollar.End of the year selling is also pressuring
stocks as traders are taking money off the table rather than risk a substantial
correction in their portfolios.
Despite the firming Dollar, March Treasury Bonds and Notes
are trading lower.This could be because
investors are asking for higher yields at todayâ€™s 10-year debt auction.
The U.S. Dollar finished the day session lower in lackluster
trading with very few highlights.Profit-taking overnight led to a lower opening, but news that S&P
lowered the credit rating of Spain
helped the Dollar limit losses. Later in the trading session, the Dollar
reversed course and began to lose ground once again as traders reassessed the
fundamentals and decided that the recent rally may have been overdone.
Global debt concerns are the main issue this week and should
continue to be until countries like Greece
and Dubai step
up and back their debt commitments. Earlier in the week, a flight-to-quality
rally in the Dollar was triggered by credit rating downgrades in Dubai and Greece.Traders will continue to monitor these
situations for further developments.The
biggest fear is the spread of credit problems.At this time, the concerns have been confided to small areas, but today
the S&P Corp. added Spain
to the watch list.
At the mid-session, the December Euro erased all of its
earlier gains, but recovered by the close.The intraday weakness was triggered when the S&P Corp. lowered the
debt rating for Spain.Yesterday, Fitch cut the credit rating of Greece.Traders are reacting as if a trend is
developing. The chart pattern suggests that the next downside target is 1.4625
although it is likely this will not take place until after a formidable
Demand for lower yielding currencies is helped to drive the December
Japanese higher. This news comes on the heels of an early morning report which
showed that the Japanese economy grew slower than expected.Traders had very little reaction to the lower
than expected GDP Report and instead chose to focus their interests on the
weakening demand for higher yielding currencies.
Downside pressure could continue in the December British
Pound now that key support at 1.6250 has been broken.The charts indicate that a break to 1.6148 is
possible.Earlier today, the U.K.
government released preliminary plans to shore up its finances.Traders rejected the plan and began another
selling spree. Traders are also keeping an eye on the debt situation in Dubai because some U.K.
bank may face exposure to the bad debt.
The December Canadian Dollar is up today but still trading
inside a tight range.Throughout the New York session, this
currency pair straddled a pair of 50% retracement levels at .9505 and .9410.
Yesterday the Bank of Canada announced that interest rates would remain at 0.25
percent until at least June 2010 and that it was still concerned about the
strength of the currency and its possible negative affect on exports.
On December 10th the Swiss National Bank is expected to leave
its benchmark interest rate unchanged and offer clarity as to its future
monetary policy plans.Most traders
expect the SNB to discuss its concerns about deflation and the possibility of
another round of intervention if the Swiss Franc appreciates too much against
February Gold is weakening because of the renewed strength
in the Dollar.The chart indicates that
a decline to $1107.00 is likely. If this retracement price fails to stop the
freefall, then look for a test of the main bottom at $1102.60.This price must hold or a further decline to
$1079.00 is next.Donâ€™t consider the
long side unless this market forms a closing price reversal bottom.
March Crude Oil is trading sharply lower.Weaker equity markets and a higher Dollar are
driving higher risk assets lower, but increasing supply is the main factor
contributing to the weakness. Todayâ€™s
action is currently leading to a test of a retracement price at 73.63.
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