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Thursday December 10, 2009 - 03:35:55 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 10-Dec-2009 - 0333 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The Dow and the Nasdaq rose half a percent each. The Dow manages to be ranged between 10250-10500. Till this range holds, the market would continue to flip between encouraged to uncertainty. And this is likely to go the same way at least till the end of the year as their would be lesser activity into the holiday season.

The Asian indices are trading flattish today. The Nikkei (9995.34) is trading 0.09% lower and Shanghai (3253.33) is up 0.42%. All Ordinaries is trading a little lower despite a surge in employment numbers for third month in a row. The Sensex (17125.22) fell 0.06% yesterday. The index has been finding it difficult to break above the 17500 on the upside and this gives it a range of 16500-17500 for the rest of the year.


COMMODITIES
Crude (71.04) continued its fall and closed lower for the sixth consecutive day. The stronger dollar and the unexpected increase in Distillate inventories that include heating oil and diesel kept the prices lower although the Crude inventories fell 3.8 million barrels against the expected increase of 600,000 barrrels. Support is seen at 70 a break below which might see further dip towards 69-68.50.

Gold (1134.80) fell and closed lower for the fourth consecutive day as the dollar continued to remain strong. However, the Support in 1120-00 region mentioned earlier has held and it has risen from yesterday's low of 1117. As mentioned yesterday, a break below 1100 might pull it down towards 1075-50. However, the broader picture remains bullish.


CURRENCIES
Currencies have been relatively quiet since yesterday, stabilising or recovering a bit, after their fall against the Dollar earlier in the week. Amongst them, the Australian Dollar (0.9155) has recovered the most, up from yesterday's low near 0.9015. The Euro (1.4735) remains above the Support at 1.4668. Both of these are encouraging suggesting the overall uptrend is still intact, despite the good correction that has been seen last week and earlier this week. Dollar-Yen (88.19) has also moved up a bit from yesterday's low near 87.35 and is now in the middle of a possible range of 86-90, which is likely to hold for the next few weeks. This should be a good environment for the "carry trades" to flourish.

The Pound (1.6302) has also recovered a bit after having been "pounded" over the last few days on concerns about its indebtedness. Dollar-Swiss (1.0262) has been stable since yesterday but could be on its way higher towards 1.0330 today.

In Asia, the Sing Dollar (1.3886) has strengthened again today after having weakend to 1.3953 over the last two days. It should be ranged between 1.3800-3955 for the next few days. USD-KRW trades near 1162 after having moved up to 1164.80 yesterday. Dollar-Rupee had closed lower near 46.54 yesterday and might drift down a bit towards 46.40 within an overall range of 46.20-80.


INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.26%. Obama has indicated that the TARP would be entended till October of next year which leaves little likelihood of an interest rate increase in the US over the next several months. With 1M and 3M USD LIBOR having converged and the 6M and 12M moving towards convergence, we might see an extended era of unchanged interest rates. Look for example the JPY LIBOR graph which was flat for 5Y before it started rising. To see the graph of JPY LIBOR, click on:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/jpylib.shtml#jpy and the graph of USD LIBOR, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdlib.shtml#usd


DATA TODAY
00:30 GMT Nov Australia Labour Force
...Expected 5.3K...Previous 24.5K
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/aulab.shtml

08:30 GMT SNB Meeting
...Expected 0.25%...Previous 0.25%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/snb.shtml

12:00 GMT BOE Mtg
...Expected 0.50%...Previous 0.50%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ukboe.shtml

01:30 GMT US Oct Trade Balance
...Expected $ -37.0 Bln...Previous $ -36.5 Bln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ustrbal.shtml


DATA YESTERDAY
JP GDP Q3'09 (Pre)
...Actual 0.3%...Previous 1.2%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/jpgdp.shtml

Australia Trade Balance
...Actual A$ -2.38 Bln...Previous A$ -1.85 Bln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/autrbal.shtml

UK Trade Balance
...Actual $ -7.1 Bln...Previous $ -6.9 Bln


 

 

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