European Market Update: Risk aversion sentiment subsides as European central bankers express confidence that Greek authorities will address its debt problems (Trade the News)
Thursday, December 10, 2009
European Market Update: Risk aversion sentiment subsides as European central bankers express confidence that Greek authorities will address its debt problems
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (SZ) SNB left its 3-Month Libor Target Rate unchanged at 0.25%; as expected. To end corp bind purchases and reiterates to counter any CHF currency strength - (IC) Iceland cuts its interest rates by 100bps to 10.00% (sixth rate cut this year) - (FI) Finland Oct Preliminary Trade Balance: â‚¬1.4B v â‚¬1.1Be - (FI) Finland Oct Industrial Production M/M: 2.2% v 2.0%e; Y/Y: -18.9% v -20.8%e - (GE) German Nov Wholesale Prices M/M: 0.7% v -0.4% prior, Y/Y: -3.2% v -7.0% prior - (FR) French Q3 Final Non-farm Payrolls Q/Q: -.06% v 0.0% prior - (FR) French Q3 Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.8% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -8.8% v -6.5%e - (FR) French Oct Industrial Production M/M: -0.8% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: -8.4% v -6.6%e - (TU) Turkish Oct GDP Y/Y: -3.3% v -3.7%e - (TU) Turkey Nov Capacity Utilization: 70.7% v 71.2%e - (SW) Swedish Nov CPI-Headline Rate M/M: 0.0% v-0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.7%e - (SW) Swedish Nov CPI- Underlying Inflation M/M: 0.0% v0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.3%e; CPI Level 301.03 v 301.22e - (DE) Danish NOV M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e - (DE) Danish NOV CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.1%e - (SP) Spain Q3 Housing sales Y/Y: -13.6% - (IT) Italian Oct Production M/M: 0.5% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: -11.8% v -12.7%e; Ind Prod WDA Y/Y: -14.0% v -12.9%e - (EU) ECB Monthly Report: Mirrors ECB press conference from Dec 3rd - (NO) Norwegian Nov CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4%e - (NO) Norwegian Nov CPI Underlying M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4%e - (NO) Norwegian Nov Producer Prices (incl oil) M/M: 3.6% v 1.5% prior, Y/Y: 4.8% v -4.1% prior - (SW) Swedish AMV unemployment Rate: 5.3% v 5.4%e - (SA) South African Q3 Current Account Balance (ZAR): -77.4B v -72.5Be; Ratio to GDP): -3.2% v -3.1%e - (UK) Oct Mortgage approvals M/M: 55.3K v 50.6K prior -Council of Morgtage Lenders: Mortgage - (IT) Italian Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: -4.6 v -4.6%e v -5.9% prior - (GR) Greek Sept Unemployment Rate: 9.1% v 9.3%e - (IC) Iceland Nov Unemployment rate: 8.0% v 7.6% prior - (IR) Irish Nov CPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -5.7% v -5.8%e - (IR) Irish Nov CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0,1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.8%e - (IR) Irish Oct Industrial Production M/M: -2.8% v 11.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v -0.7% prior - (BR) Brazil Q3 GDP Q/Q: 1.3% v 2.0%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v-0.2%e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets have taken a back to seat to data and currency plays in today's morning session. Equity markets traded erratically on the open, rallying out of negative territory following SNB action leaving the 3month Libor target unchanged and better than expected Swedish CPI figures. A deluge of data at 4:00EST including the 6th Icelandic rate cut in 2009, Italian industrial production and South African data served as a cap to equity highs. Equities retraced 50% of their rally to 5:00EST when the Italian Q3 GDP met expectations and once again flipped equity sentiment. Other simultaneous macro flows that contributed to trading sentiment today on the positive side included a sharp snap back to the decline in Dubai equity markets with +7% rotation. Greek banks have also found a bottom to a three day slide spurned by Greek sovereign ratings concerns and funding activities. A blistering stream of central bank speak throughout the session has affected equity markets, most notably the ECB's Nowotny on the Euro and SNB's Jordan on the CHF. Sectors that have seen good strength include basic materials, consumer goods and financials. Volumes on European bourses have average below moving ranges throughout the session.
-Individual stocks: DS Smith [SMDS.UK]: Reports H1 Pretax Â£34.7M v Â£44.1My/y, Rev Â£1.0B v Â£1.0Be; Expect to exceed the expectations we had for the full-year. || E.On [EOAN.GE]: Company's Ruhrgas unit to import less gas from Russia than expected because of falling prices - Die Welt. || Inditex [ITX.SP]: Reports 9-month Net â‚¬831M v â‚¬807Me, Rev â‚¬7.76B v â‚¬7.8Be. || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK]: Reportedly to replace Chief Iron Ore Price Negotiator. || Yara International [YAR.NO]: Sees demand increasing for straight nitrogen fertilizer- investor day comments. || - Speakers: ECB's Nowotny: Stronger Euro will have negative impact on Euro-zone. He added that the ECB was watching situation in Greece and Ireland carefully and that Euro membership must not be seen as a solution to economic problems. He noted that the central bank would not be changing framework rules for collateral||Japan Vice Fin Min Noda: Reiterates that MOF strives to keep new JGB issues below Â¥44T in next fiscal year || ECB' s Liikanen commented that the Euro-zone government debt was following an "unsustainable trend" and that a Credible plan was needed to break debt trend in Euro-Zone and Finland to stabilize debt-to-gdp ratios before public finances were impacted by the effects of a rising population. He reiterated the ECB view that interest rates were appropriate. The removal of some special measures was NOT a monetary policy signal || ECB's Mersch commented that he saw uneven economic growth continuing into 2010 and that economic uncertainty remained high. He noted that risks to outlook were globally balanced. Inflation had hit a low point and should turn higher (in line with ECB views). Employment situation to worsen over the next few quarters. He commented that stimulus withdrawal to take several year and reiterated that ECB does not pre-commit on policy decisions. Slow economic recovery did not imply double-dip recession. Governments need credible ext strategy on special measures and not obeying budget rules risks massive unemployment (Greece shows the importance of obeying such rule). The recent downgrade of Greece sovereign ratings was worrisome but confident Greece will fix its budget problems || Swiss National Bank's Roth stated that there was no credit crisis in Switzerland and reiterated that the stability in CHF currency was evidence of policy success || Swiss National Bank's Hildebrand stated that it must be possible for large banks to fail, expects large banks to return to profitability || India Central Bank (RBI) Subbarao: Nov Capital inflows are inline with requirements; No plans to curb inflows at this time || Chancellor Darling commented that halving the UK deficit over four years was non-negotiable. He conceded that the UK was not yet there on economic recovery front and continued to see future difficult decisions to be made. Unemployment will not be like year-ago forecasts. He added that the biggest tax burden fell upon the broadest shoulders || SNB comment after its interest rate decision that it would continue to "act decisively" to counter CHF currency gains. It noted that bond purchases wouldbe stopped.. The central bank said the recovery remained fragile and there wais still "considerable uncertainty" on the economic outlook || UK's Shadow Chancellor Osborne stated that he was concerned on sovereign ratings without credible fiscal plan. He did not rule out the Conservatives would keep the 0.5% National Insurance increase announced in the pe-budget on Tuesday by the labor Party. || German RWI institute raised 2010 GDP growth outlook to 1.6% from 1.2% prior || ECB Monthly report repeated the view that interest rates were appropriate and improved markets allowed unwinding of some liquidity measures. It saw 2010 growth as moderate and the economic recovery as uneven
- Currencies: Consolidation was the buzzword during the European morning as some critical levels for further dollar momentum had yet to be breeched. The EUR/USD continue to hold above the early November low of 1.4630 while the GBP/USD maintained its March uptrend line with key support slated to be at 1.6170. There was a plethora of European central bank comments throughout the session with any utterance of the sovereign debt situation taking precedence. Overall the ECB members remained confident that Greek authorities would address its budget situation. Spain's PM also noted that its was his country's priority to reduce debt. The risk appetite aiding the equity flows and providing some softness in the dollar and yen related pairs. - The BOE is not expected to surprise the market at its rate decision later today. - The CHF was little changed following the SNB monetary policy meeting and the central bank reiterated its policy to curb CHF currency appreciated and it noted that its action involved several currencies in its effort to stem CHF strength.
- Fixed Income: Spanish markets breathed a sigh of relief after â‚¬2.1B in 10y bono's were sold without any major hiccups following yesterday's outlook revision at S&P. Following the results Spain's 10yr narrowed 3bps to Bunds +72bps but Europe's most profligate nations continue to get spanked with Greece gain leading the way. The Greek 10yr failed to enjoy any benefit from a better than expected unemployment reading, now trading comfortably above Bunds +250bps. Ireland is not far behind, 6bps wider on the session at +196bps and Italy is 4bps wider and at 2 month high above 90bps. Gilts have been punished as the realities of yesterday's pre budget report set in. The hangover from yesterday's short term rally has been nasty, with the 10yr yield up roughly 10bps and above 3.75% and the BoE is highly unlikely to offer any respite via increased QE in about an hour's time. A number of prominientCity economists have pointed out that the report, clearly crafted with one eye on next year's election, really did not offer much in terms of decfit reduction. A number expressed misgivings over its dependence on overly optimistic growth assumptions. Treasuries have not escaped the selling, but ahead of a bond reopening it is paradoxically the short end that has borne the brunt of renewed equity market strength. The 2yr note has been the worst performer up with the yield 4bps higher at 0.782%.
- Commodities: Reportedly Vietnam Central Bank looking at measures to regulate gold trading to protect investors. Among measures suggested are a reduction in the number of gold trading centers, increase in cash margins required to trade forward contracts to as high as 100%, (versus less than 10% currently)
***Notes: - Central bankers express confidence that sovereign debt concerns would be addressed - ECB's Trichet reiterated that a strong dollar was important for the global economy -(US) RealtyTrac: US Nov foreclosure activity -8% m/m and +18% y/y to 307K properties
***Looking Ahead: - 7:00 (UK) BOE Interest Rate Decision (no changes to rates or Quantitative Easing expected) - 8:30 (US)Oct Trade Balance: -$36.8Be v -$36.5B prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Dec 5th: 455Ke v 457K prior, Continuing Claims: 5.45Me v 5.465M prior - 8:30 (CA) International Merchandise Trade : -C$0.7Be v -C$0.9B prior - 10:00 (US) Treasury Sec Geithner testifies before congress on TARP - 12:30 (EU) ECB's Trichet speaks at Cambridge university (UK) - 13:00 (US) Treasury's $13B 30y bond re-opening - 13:45 (US) Fed's Duke speaks in Chicago - 14:00 (US) Monthly Budget Statement: -$131.6B prior v -$125.2B prior
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