The U.S. Dollar is trading mixed overnight.The Greenback is losing ground against most
majors while posting a modest gain versus the Japanese Yen. Although the
overnight activity suggests a renewal of interest in higher yielding assets,
traders are continuing to keep an eye on the developing global debt situation.
Stronger global equity markets are contributing to the
weakness in the Dollar as traders are once again increasing demand for more
risky assets after reassessing U.S.
economic data and the odds of an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.
This morning, traders will get their first look at the U.S. employment
situation following last weekâ€™s surprise drop in the unemployment rate.This report has a chance to set the tone for
The NZD USD is posting strong gains overnight fueled by the
prospect of higher interest rates earlier than previously reported.In adapting a more hawkish tone since the
last meeting in November, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said that if the
economy continued to improve, conditions may support the removal of monetary
stimulus â€śaround the middle of 2010.This last line was more bullish than the previous announcement which
said rates would not be hiked â€śuntil the second half of 2010â€ť.
An additional boost was given to the currency when RBNZ
Governor Bollard hinted that he was less worried about the strength in the
currency.â€śWeâ€™re now seeing an economy
where some of the background conditions are slightly stronger,â€ť said
Bollard.â€śWe have been unusually
explicit over the last number of statements because we thought we were seeing
financial market conditions getting ahead of things.â€ť
The surprise hawkishness by the RBNZ, caught traders
off-guard while triggering a strong move overnight.Yesterdayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom
seems to indicate that todayâ€™s change in stance was anticipated.The reversal bottom at .7043 was confirmed
overnight on the rally through .7206.The current chart pattern suggests that the main trend on the daily
chart will turn up on a move through .7299.Gains could be limited when this market reaches the retracement zone at
.7328 to .7401.Downtrending Gann angle
resistance at .7275 is providing additional resistance.
The AUD USD is posting a strong gain following the release
of a better than expected employment report.Overnight the Australian government reported that the unemployment rate
fell to a seasonally-adjusted 5.7%.The
release of this data helped revive confidence in the global economy.Based on the short-term range of .9321 to
.9014, traders should look for a retracement rally to .9167 to .9204.
The USD CHF is trading sideways-to-lower overnight following
the Swiss National Bank monetary policy decision.The SNB left its 3-month target rate
unchanged while announcing plans to stop bond purchases.It also added that it will continue to â€śact
decisivelyâ€ť to counter strong gains in the Swiss Franc. At this time, the SNB
feels that an interest rate hike is inappropriate because the recovery remains
fragile and inflation forecasts uncertain.
Technically, the USD CHF posted a closing price reversal
top.Overnight action failed to confirm
the top and the higher-high negated the pattern.1.0337 remains the next upside target. Mounting downside pressure could drive this
currency pair to 1.0109 to 1.0064 over the short-run.
Stronger equity markets and a bearish economic report are
helping to pressure the Japanese Yen.The drop in core machinery orders in October is fueling speculation that
deflation will undermine the economic recovery.Technically, the USD JPY completed a 50% correction to 87.80.Finishing this retracement is helping to
contribute to todayâ€™s weakness.
Stronger demand for higher yielding assets and an increase
in German wholesale prices are helping to support the EUR USD.Yesterday this market posted a daily closing
price reversal bottom at 1.4668.This
chart pattern will be confirmed if the market crosses 1.4781.A confirmation could drive this market to
1.4906 to 1.4962 over the short-run.If
downside pressure persists, then look for a test of 1.4625.
The GBP USD is trading higher as traders await the release
of the Bank of England monetary policy statement.Traders expect interest rates to remain unchanged
along with the BoEâ€™s quantitative easing plan.News that the U.K.
have banded together to tax banker bonuses may be helping to give the market a
boost.Technically oversold conditions
are also contributing to the bounce to the upside. Exposure to foreign debt and a monstrous
budget deficit could help to limit gains.
At this time the British Pound is trying to establish
support inside of a retracement zone at 1.6292 to 1.6154.If a support base can be built in this zone,
then look for a rally back to 1.6443 to 1.6508.
The USD CAD is down but remains rangebound between a pair of
50% levels at 1.0598 to 1.0537.A
stronger stock market and firm crude oil prices may be contributing to the
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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