Rising Global Equity Markets Pressure Dollar Overnight
Stronger global equity markets are contributing to the
weakness in the Dollar as traders are once again increasing demand for more
risky assets after reassessing U.S.
economic data and the odds of an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.
This morning, traders will get their first look at the U.S.
employment situation following last weekâ€™s surprise drop in the unemployment
rate.This report has a chance to set
the tone for the day.
Stronger demand for equities is driving up the December
E-mini S&P this morning.Traders
seem to have shrugged aside debt concerns in Dubai,
Greece and Spain while
renewing their interest in higher yielding assets.Yesterdayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom at
1085.00 will be confirmed on a move through 1097.00.The chart pattern indicates that 1102.00 to
1106.00 are potential upside targets.
Renewed interest in higher yielding assets is helping to
push March Treasury Bonds and Notes lower.Traders could ask for higher yields during todayâ€™s 30-year Bond
auction.This would put additional
pressure on these markets later in the trading session.March Bonds are at a critical juncture. Currently
this market is on the bearside of both a .618 level at 118â€™31 and an uptrending
Gann angle at 118â€™28.Look for pressure
as long as this market remains under theses levels.
February Gold is trading better because of the weaker
Dollar.The key downside target remains
$1107.40, but overnight action indicates this market may not reach this level,
especially if the Dollar continues to weaken.The first upside target today is $1147.50.This downtrendng Gann angle is controlling
the short-term direction of this market.
March Crude Oil has completed a .618 correction of the 67.46
to 83.60 range.This could trigger a
technical bounce to the upside.A weaker
Dollar and firmer equity prices could help fuel a short-covering rally.Gains could be limited because of bearish
supply and demand conditions.
The U.S. Dollar is trading mixed overnight.The Greenback is losing ground against most
majors while posting a modest gain versus the Japanese Yen. Although the
overnight activity suggests a renewal of interest in higher yielding assets, traders
are continuing to keep an eye on the developing global debt situation.
The December Swiss Franc is trading sideways-to-higher
overnight following the Swiss National Bank monetary policy decision.The SNB left its 3-month target rate
unchanged while announcing plans to stop bond purchases.It also added that it will continue to â€śact
decisivelyâ€ť to counter strong gains in the Swiss Franc. At this time, the SNB
feels that an interest rate hike is inappropriate because the recovery remains
fragile and inflation forecasts uncertain.
Technically, the December Swiss Franc posted a closing price
reversal bottom.Overnight action failed
to confirm the bottom and the lower-low negated the pattern..9675 remains the next downside target.Mounting upside pressure could drive this
currency pair to .9898 to .9943 over the short-run.
Stronger equity markets and a bearish economic report are
helping to pressure the Japanese Yen.The drop in core machinery orders in October is fueling speculation that
deflation will undermine the economic recovery.Technically, the December Japanese Yen completed a 50% correction to 1.1403.Finishing this retracement is helping to
contribute to todayâ€™s weakness.
Stronger demand for higher yielding assets and an increase
in German wholesale prices are helping to support the December Euro.Yesterday this market posted a daily closing
price reversal bottom at 1.4667.This
chart pattern will be confirmed if the market crosses 1.4782.A confirmation could drive this market to
1.4906 to 1.4962 over the short-run.If
downside pressure persists, then look for a test of 1.4624.
The December British Pound is trading higher as traders
await the release of the Bank of England monetary policy statement.Traders expect interest rates to remain
unchanged along with the BoEâ€™s quantitative easing plan.News that the U.K.
have banded together to tax banker bonuses may be helping to give the market a
boost.Technically oversold conditions
are also contributing to the bounce to the upside.Exposure to foreign debt and a monstrous
budget deficit could help to limit gains.
At this time the British Pound is trying to establish
support inside of a retracement zone at 1.6289 to 1.6150.If a support base can be built in this zone,
then look for a rally back to 1.6521 to 1.6604.
The December Canadian Dollar is up but remains rangebound
between a pair of 50% levels at .9446 and .9505.A stronger stock market and firm crude oil
prices may be contributing to the overnight gains.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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