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Thursday December 10, 2009 - 23:53:27 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (10 December 2009)

The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4760 level and was supported around the $1.4685 level.  The common currency was given earlier before retracing as traders continue to react to mounting credit concerns.  Spain’s credit outlook was downwardly revised by Standard & Poor’s yesterday after it affirmed the country’s long-term and sovereign investment-grade credit ratings.  Spain’s long-term debt rating of AAA was downgraded in January and the Spanish action follows Greece’s downgrade this week by Fitch.  European Central Bank President Trichet reported economic and financial conditions “are now stable enough that we can start to withdraw some of the excess support that is now needed to the same extent as it was in the past.”  Last week, the ECB reported it will start removing some policy accommodation in 2010 but will keep most measures in place.  European Central Bank member Nowotny warned “We are closely watching the developments in economic deficits. The high deficits of countries as Greece, Ireland and Spain are a reason for concern to us.  It's not the ECB's job to help defuse these situations. This is not part of the mandate of the ECB. Membership of the euro zone must not be seen as a solution to national structural problems. The member countries must do their own homework.” Data released in the eurozone today saw the German November wholesale price index rise 0.7% m/m.  In U.S. news, the October trade balance improved to –US$ 32.9 billion from a revised –US$ 35.7 billion in September.  Also, weekly initial jobless claims rose to 474,000 from continuing jobless claims fell to 5.157 million from a revised 5.460 million.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4505 level.

 

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥88.45 level and was supported around the ¥87.70 level.  Bank of Japan launched its new ¥10 trillion fund provision scheme overnight by offering ¥800 billion in loans to financial institutions at low rates.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the November domestic corporate goods price index up 0.1% m/m and off 4.9% y/y. Also, October core machinery orders were off 4.5% m/m and 21.0% y/y.  Finance minister Fujii yesterday reported deflation will be overcome in five years.  Finance ministry Tooyoo Gyohten yesterday noted Bank of Japan’s latest measures to address deflation are “appropriate and proper… What the BOJ has done is a sensible measure to stimulate demand for funds but at the same time avoiding (sending a) wrong signal to the market that the interest rate is further reduced.”  Last week, the central bank reported it is pumping up to ¥10 trillion in three-month funds at the overnight rate.”  Gyohten added “Apparently, the crucial moment will be when the new government decides what will be the shape of the budget for the next fiscal year, which starts April next year, and what will be the prospects of the fiscal situation and performance of industries and conditions in major trading partners, notably in North America and Asia.”  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.41% to close at ¥9,862.82.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥130.35 level and was supported around the ¥129.05 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥144.40 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥85.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8287 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8286.  People’s Bank of China official Zhu Min this week reported China can experience more than 8% economic growth.  Zhu added China had “good reason” to devalue its currency during the global financial crisis but instead decided to “stabilize the renminbi exchange rate.” The State Administration for Foreign Exchange said China will continue to implement foreign exchange reforms and PBoC indicated it will “improve” policy flexibility.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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