European Market Update: Risk aversion concerns subside in the session aided by Chinese data and soothing views on the sovereign debt front (Trade the News)
Friday, December 11, 2009
European Market Update: Risk aversion concerns subside in the session aided by Chinese data and soothing views on the sovereign debt front
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (IN) India Oct Industrial Production: 10.3% v 12.0%e - (RU) Russia Q3 GDP annualized: -8.9% v -8.9% prior - (HU) Hungary Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%; Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.0%e - (NV) Netherlands Oct Industrial Production M/M: -0.8% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -7.1% v -6.6%e; Industrial Sales NSA Y/Y: -17.2 v -21.0% prior - (CZ) Czech Oct Current Account (CZK):12.4B v -10.0Be - (UK) Nov PPI Input M/M: 0.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.0%e - (UK) Nov PPI Output M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9%e - (UK) Nov PPI Output Core M/M; -0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.1%e - (UK) Nov England and Wales Housing prices M/M: 0.9%; Y/Y: +1.4% - FT/Acadametrics; First positive YoY reading since Jun 2008 - (IR) Irish Oct Retail sales M/M: -0.3% v 1.7% prior, Y/y; -9.1% v -9.8% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets look set to continue from yesterday's positive themes. Buy side equity themes followed a range of Chinese data that continued its better than expected trend. Chinese loan data, showing an unexpected rise rallied the Asian financial sector and this momentum continued into Europe. Price gains in base metals and natural resources furthered strength in the basic resource, mining and industrial firms. Energy and integrated oil firms have been tracking higher as the second round of concession bidding takes place in Iraq. Early wins have gone to a Shell/Pretronas JV [RDSA.UK] and a Total/CNPC JV[FP.FR] with two failed auctions. The size of the fields at hand, and the amount of investment needed to bring Iraqi production up to potential output has been widely commented upon as huge, and a potential growth market for the oil and oil services sector seen as significant for years. Aerospace names have taken light from the much delayed, but successful maiden flight of the Airbus [EAD.FR] A400M which flew today in Spain. Aerospace enthusiasts are now turning attention to the similarly much delayed first flight of the Boeing [BA] 777 scheduled for Dec 15 (weather depending). IPO's in Europe continue to come under pressure with this week's offering, Scan Energy, being cancelled and LSE based IPO Gartmore confirming speculation that its initial pricing range had been lowered. Volumes in today's trading are down across the board.
-Individual stocks: ING [INGA.NV]: To repay Dutch state â‚¬5B in core Tier 1 securities on Dec 21. || Carillion [CLLN.UK]: Provides Pre close statement: FY order book expected to be at Â£17B. || HMV [HMV.UK]: Provides interim results: H1 Rev Â£797M v Â£785Me; LFL sales -2.1% y/y. || Dexia [DEXB.BE]: SocGen to pay â‚¬675M for Credit Du Nord -le Figaro. || Thales [HO.FR]: Targeting â‚¬1B in cost savings over 5-years -Les Echos. || Club Med [CU.FR]: Reports FY09 net loss â‚¬3M (ex items) v loss â‚¬44Me (unclear if comparable); Rev â‚¬1.4M v â‚¬1.4Be; announces â‚¬120M new credit line. || EADS [EAD.FR]: A400M to makes first flight.
- Speakers: Greece PM Papandreou reiterates the view that there was "absolutely no risk" of default on Greece's government debt and added that there was no possibility of Greece leaving EMU *** ECB's Bini Smaghi: Sees uncertainty on the intensity and sustainability of economic recovery in the months and year to come. He noted that a rapid recovery in economic activity, at the rates registered before the crisis, appears improbable for various reasons *** ECB's Mersch commented that one must remain cautious on economic recovery noting that consumer confidence remained fragile. He noted that a tax on financial transaction is a 'simplistic' idea *** German Gov Official: Will not amend state tax cuts as most German States back current plans *** EU leaders agreed that stimulus measures to remain in place until the economic recovery was fully ensured and urged IMF to consider global financial tax and according to a draft statement. Encourages the IMF to consider the full range of options including insurance fees, resolution funds, contingent capital arrangements and a global financial transaction levy . *** Japan PM Hatoyama: Reiterates view that FY2010/11 new JGB issuance be kept below Â¥44T *** UK Treasury responded to rumors and noted that the country had a clear plan to reduce deficit by half through 2014 and there was no rift between Chancellor Darling and PM Brown on necessary measures
- Currencies: The USD and JPY currencies were softer again the European majors as risk appetite was aided by Chinese production figures and diminishing concerns on the sovereign ratings front. During the Asian session Moody's commented there was no imminent threat to the US and UK's triple "AAA" sovereign ratings for the time being and would wait to see further effects of the recession on both countries. Greek PM Papandreou reiterated the view that there is "absolutely no risk" of default on Greece's government debt and no possibility of Greece leaving EMUEUR/USD was around 40 pips higher from its opening levels in Asia and trading at 1.4770 as the NY morning approached. GBP/USD off its best levels but also 40 pips higher from the Tokyo open and holding above the 1.63 handle. The USD/JPY was approaching the 89.00 level while both EUR/JPT and GBP/JPY pairs were 150 pips higher from their respective Asian opening levels. *** Morgan Stanley analyst commented that their models saw a 'higher risk' of currency intervention in USD/JPY. The European calendar was light but there are several key US calendar highlights slated for release later today.
- Fixed Income: Some relied was registered on the sovereign debt situation as the week drew to a close. The Greek 10yr has narrowed 15pbs to a more respectable Bunds+210bps following calming words from European officials and promises from the Greek government. Ireland has narrowed 8bps to Bunds +179pbs while Spain is -2bps at 65bps. Gilts have fared comparatively well under the weight of equity strength, with the 10y relatively unchanged at 3.80%, with the Bund yield +3bps at 3.21%. Meanwhile, the US 10yr Note is back above the key 3.50% level and looking cheap ahead of a one week supply hiatus.
- Energy: IEA Dec report again raised the 2010 global oil demand by 133K bpd to 86.3M bpd citing firm economic activity in China. The Dec Global supply rose by 200K bpd to 85.8Mbpd. OPEC Oct compliance seen at 58% v 61% m/m. OECD oil stock cover was at 59.4 versus 60.2 days m/m and crude oil floating storage seen at 55M bpd compared to 60M bpd m/m. Refinery run levels were at 72.3M bpd versus 72.8M bpd prior *** Iraq begin its second round of oil bidding with 20 year operating contract on 15 oil fields being offered. Contracts up for auction are bundled into 10 groups of oil/gas field, which include Majnoon, West Qurna, East Baghdad, Halfaya. Bidding operations to take place through Saturday Dec 12. Some 45 international oil firms to take part in operation. Assets up for bidding account for 1/3 of Iraqi's known reserves with concessions seen at $2-4/bbl
***Notes: - Moody's no current plans to lower its top debt ratings on the U.S. and the U.K. - Greek PM Papandreou: "absolutely no risk" of default on Greece's government debt - China Stats Bureau: Indus Prod stronger than expected- low base effect. Exports fell the least in 13 months and imports surged. Experiencing no inflation at present - India Industrial Production below expectations; Russia Q3 GDP failed to improve - Asian indices mostly positive with Japan and HK + 2.5% and 1.5% respectively. Gold off weekly lows. - Japan winter bonuses fall to 20 year low.
***Looking Ahead: - 7:00 (EU) ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell - 7:15 (EU) ECB's Trichet - 7:30 (EU) ECB's Constancio - 8:00 (PD) Polish Oct Trade Balance: -â‚¬200Me v -â‚¬4M prior; Current Account: -â‚¬295Me v -â‚¬57M prior - 8:30 (CA) New Housing Price M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior - 8:30 (US) Nov Import Price Index M/M: 1.2%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y; 2.9%e v -5.7% prior - 8:30 (US) Advance Retail Sales: 0.6%e v 1.4% prior; Less Autos: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior; Ex Auto & Gas: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior - 10:00 (US) Dec Prelim U of Michigan Confidence: 68.8e v 67.4 prior - 10:00 (US) Oct Bus Inventories: -0.2%e v -0.4% prior - 15:30 (MX) Mexico Sept Gross Fixed Investment: -10.4%e v -11.2% prior - (CO) Colombia Oct Trade Balance: No est v $179.2M prior
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