U.S. Dollar Mostly Weaker Ahead of Retail Sales Report
The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against most major
currencies ahead of this morningâ€™s retail sales report.Economists are calling for an increase of
0.6% in retail sales for the month of November. The University of Michigan
Consumer Confidence report is expected to rise to
68.8 from 67.4.
Market participants want to see stability in the labor
market and an increase in consumer spending.In my opinion, a bullish retail number today is likely to support the
Dollar because it will increase speculation that the Fed will hike interest
rates sooner than expected.
Some traders feel that a bullish retail number will be
bearish for the Dollar because it will add to increased appetite for risky
assets.If this is the case then
appetite for risky assets will be the primary catalyst behind a weaker Dollar
This clash between those who believe the Fed is closer to
raising rates and investors who feel it is still a long way off, may trigger a
stalemate in the Forex markets until the Fed clarifies the situation at its
next meeting on December 16th.
The EUR USD is posting a modest gain overnight. After
experience stress earlier in the week because of downgrades of Greece, Spain
traders have reassessed debt conditions and decided that the price drop may
have been excessive.
The GBP USD is trading slightly better.Today the U.K. is expected to report that the
Producer Price Index rose by 2.9%.Yesterday the Bank of England decided to leave interest rates unchanged
while leaving its quantitative easing program intact.Like the Euro, losses earlier in the week may
have been overdone, leading to oversold technical conditions.
Increased demand for higher yielding assets is pressuring
the lower yielding Japanese Yen.This
week the Yen was hit with slew of bearish events leading to the recovery in the
USD JPY the past two days. Last night it was reported that Japanese Consumer
Confidence dropped more than expected for the first time this year.Earlier in the week, the Third Quarter GDP
number disappointed investors along with the approval of a new 7.2 trillion yen
The USD CHF is trading lower.Yesterdayâ€™s closing price reversal top is a
bearish indicator but the pair has to confirm the top first.Look for an acceleration to the downside if
1.0237 is broken.Yesterday the Swiss
National Bank agreed to leave interest rates unchanged while announcing plans
to end its bond purchasing program.The
SNB feels that the economy is still too fragile to begin hiking interest
rates.They also added that they will
not be shy about intervening if the Swiss Franc appreciates too much.
Overnight, the USD CAD is feeling downside pressure in a
continuation of the weakness which began on Wednesday. Yesterdayâ€™s better than
expected Canadian trade balance report was the catalyst behind the strong surge
in the Canadian Dollar.Higher precious
metal prices helped the trade balance achieve a surplus.
The Aussie Dollar is trading sideways to better following
yesterdayâ€™s strong rally.Thursdayâ€™s
move was driven by better than expected employment numbers and a sharp rise in
the New Zealand Dollar.Increased
appetite for risk from Asia also contributed
to the rise.Since todayâ€™s U.S. Retail
Sales Report will be the driving force in the stock market, this number is also
likely to influence the AUD USD.The
news, that Chinaâ€™s
industrial production increased by 19.2% in November, while exports fell at a
slower pace than estimated, provided some support to this market
The NZD USD is trading inside of yesterdayâ€™s range in a
lackluster trade.The strong surge the
past two days has put this market in a short-term overbought position.The first leg up from bottom is usually
short-covering.This means that another
factor will have to be the catalyst to drive this market higher.This catalyst will be increased appetite for
higher yielding currencies.If this
demand doesnâ€™t materialize, then look for a pullback to at least .7180.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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