Bullish News Out of China Helps Spike Equity Markets Higher
Bullish reports out of China helped stock markets recover in
Asia, leading to a strong rally in the December E-mini S&P 500.News that Chinaâ€™s
November exports fell 1.2 percent following a 13.8 percent decline in October
helped spike U.S.
equity markets to the upside.The strong
rally overnight helped take out yesterdayâ€™s high, and a retracement level in
the S&P contract at 1106.25.The key
to a rally today will be whether investors are willing to chase this market
Increased demand for risk will be the deciding factor as to
whether the stock indices continue their strong surge.If retail sales come out better than
expected, then look for higher prices.Volume has been low, but investors may return to the markets today with
conviction if they get clarity from the Retail Sales Report.
March Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes are feeling downside
pressure following yesterdayâ€™s poor 30-year Bond auction.Investors are asking for higher yields
because of concerns over the U.S. Treasuryâ€™s ability to pay its debt
February Gold is mounting a strong comeback after the hard
sell-off earlier in the week.The weaker
Dollar is helping to ignite this rally along with oversold short-term
conditions.Technically, this market
crossed to the bull-side of a downtrending Gann angle which put it in a strong
position overnight.The chart indicates
that building upside momentum could take this market back to 50% of the recent
break to $1172.25.
March Crude Oil is trading slightly better overnight.Currently, this market is holding .618
support at 73.63.Oversold short-term
conditions are helping to limit downside pressure.A weaker Dollar and a strong stock market
could trigger a short-covering rally back to 75.53.A bearish supply/demand picture is likely to
The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against most major
currencies ahead of this morningâ€™s retail sales report.Economists are calling for an increase of
0.6% in retail sales for the month of November. The University of Michigan
Consumer Confidence report is expected to rise to
68.8 from 67.4.
Market participants want to see stability in the labor
market and an increase in consumer spending.In my opinion, a bullish retail number today is likely to support the
Dollar because it will increase speculation that the Fed will hike interest
rates sooner than expected.
Some traders feel that a bullish retail number will be
bearish for the Dollar because it will add to increased appetite for risky
assets.If this is the case then
appetite for risky assets will be the primary catalyst behind a weaker Dollar
This clash between those who believe the Fed is closer to
raising rates and investors who feel it is still a long way off, may trigger a
stalemate in the Forex markets until the Fed clarifies the situation at its
next meeting on December 16th.
The December Euro is posting a modest gain overnight. After
experience stress earlier in the week because of downgrades of Greece, Spain
traders have reassessed debt conditions and decided that the price drop may
have been excessive.
The December British Pound is trading slightly better.Today the U.K. is expected to report that the
Producer Price Index rose by 2.9%.Yesterday the Bank of England decided to leave interest rates unchanged
while leaving its quantitative easing program intact.Like the Euro, losses earlier in the week may
have been overdone, leading to oversold technical conditions.
Increased demand for higher yielding assets is pressuring
the lower yielding Japanese Yen.This
week the Yen was hit with slew of bearish events leading to the recovery in the
Dollar against the Yen the past two days. Last night it was reported that
Japanese Consumer Confidence dropped more than expected for the first time this
year.Earlier in the week, the Third
Quarter GDP number disappointed investors along with the approval of a new 7.2
trillion yen stimulus package.
The December Swiss Franc is trading higher.Yesterdayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom is
a bullish indicator but the pair has to confirm the bottom first.Look for an acceleration to the upside if
.9768 is broken.Yesterday the Swiss
National Bank agreed to leave interest rates unchanged while announcing plans
to end its bond purchasing program.The
SNB feels that the economy is still too fragile to begin hiking interest
rates.They also added that they will
not be shy about intervening if the Swiss Franc appreciates too much.
Overnight, the December Canadian Dollar is experiencing
upside pressure in a continuation of the strength which began on Wednesday.
Yesterdayâ€™s better than expected Canadian trade balance report was the catalyst
behind the strong surge in the Canadian Dollar.Higher precious metal prices helped the trade balance achieve a surplus.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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