sees âformidable headwindsâ for economy, dampening exit expectations
agencies warn about rising public debt in Greece, Portugal and Spain
industrial production likely to have contracted in October
president Weber signals rise in money market rates
More credit rating problems
EUR-USD seems for now to have given up all attempts of
reaching new highs before the end of the year: after the release of the US labour market figures at the end of last week, it
dropped below 1.49 initially; during the course of this week, it slipped below
1.48, and even below 1.47 temporarily.
Although both movements were in favour of the dollar,
each was motivated by quite different factors. The US labour market figures had been better than expected, fuelling
speculation that the Fed could embark on an exit from its quantitative easing
policy earlier. Interest rates and yields had gone up accordingly.
Then Fed chairman Ben Bernanke hastened to dampen
exaggerated euphoria about an impending policy shift. In a speech on Monday, he emphasized that,
despite increased signs of recovery, the US economy was facing âformidable headwindsâ. At least
with a view to the upcoming open market committee meeting on 16 December, he
did not reveal any intention of changing the policy stance.
Mr Bernankeâs warning about âheadwindsâ coincided with
markets focusing increasingly on credit risks. They had not yet fully digested
the debt problems in Dubai, when rating agencies triggered fresh fears: Moodyâs
led the way by making a subtle distinction between the AAA ratings on Canada, Germany or France, termed âresistantâ, and the ratings on the UK and the US,which were only âresilientâ. On Tuesday, it was reported
that Fitch had downgraded its rating on Greece for the second time in the space of less than two
months, from A- to BBB+. S&P put Greece, Portugal and also Spain on negative credit watch.
Credit spreads widened markedly on the rating reports.
The interest rate spread between Bunds and 10-year Greek government bonds, for
example, rose by around 80 basis points to almost 250 basis points. Mounting
crisis fears weighed on the euro at the same time, whereas the dollar and the
yen, both typical funding currencies for carry trades and other more risky
investments, particularly commodities, strengthened.
Data on industrial new orders and production in the
eurozone turned out to be weaker than expected, which was also a drag on the
euro. In Germany, industrial production contracted by
1.8% in October, in France and the Netherlands by 0.8% respectively; Italy was the only country to post a slight increase. Thus growth in Q4 is set to
be much weaker than in the previous quarter. Remarks made by Bundesbank
president Axel Weber on the development of interest rates in the short maturity
segment of the money market, though striking, have not as yet sparked a
significant market reaction. At the press conference, ECB president Jean-Claude
Trichet had said that the measures announced were not intended to lead to a
rise in the overnight rate. According to Mr Weber, as liquidity management
normalises, the Eonia rate could go up gradually. At least he expects the Eonia
rate to remain below the central bank rate in the first quarter.
In line with this notion, the Bundesbankâs latest Financial
Stability Report had pointed out that banksâ bidding behaviour would contribute
to reducing excess liquidity in the money market, even if full allotment at
refinancing operations is maintained. In this case, the overnight rate ought to
converge with the refi rate.
Stephan Rieke +49 69 718-4114.
Grabbe / Klaus NĂ€fken
report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and
its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the information
of its clients. The information
and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and
acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is
made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or
correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without
legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information
does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of
suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision.
Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an
investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of
securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past
performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for future
results. This document is for information
purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities
mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and
should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to
buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its officers and
employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of
the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities. This
publication must not be distributed in the United
rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 23 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 July 2018 AFlash PMIs Wed 25 July 2018 A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 July 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 27 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- GDP A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.