The December E-mini Dow and December E-mini S&P 500
posted strong gains on Friday but closed unchanged for the week following the
release of bullish retail sales and consumer confidence reports. Both reports indicate
the economy is on the road to recovery and could give the Fed enough evidence
to issue a more hawkish statement at its next meeting on December 16th. The
S&P 500 closed above a retracement zone, indicating possible strength next
week.The upside target for this market
remains 1122.00. A bearish scenario could develop if Dollar traders
aggressively begin to unwind carry trade positions.
March Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes finished the week
sharply lower as investors drove up yields because of concerns over the
debt.This weekâ€™s Treasury auction ended
on a sour note when investor demand for 30-Year Bonds was lower than
expected.Todayâ€™s friendly reports did
not help matters because they may have given the Fed the confidence it needed
to hike interest rates.
The stronger Dollar hit the February Gold market hard this
week, sending it within striking distance of a 50% level at $1107.40.A break through this price could trigger a
further decline to $1079.00.The heavy
volume in this market the past two weeks indicates that speculators are selling
out of long positions with both hands.
March Crude Oil finished the week lower after posting its
seventh consecutive lower top.Up
trending Gann angle support stopped the decline today.This angle moves to 73.46 next week.The close on the bear side of a retracement
zone at 75.25 to 73.63 is an indication of weakness. Lower stocks, a higher
Dollar and bearish supply and demand factors are helping to contribute to the
Dollar bulls who wanted to see growth in the labor market
and an increase in consumer spending received the latter in the form of a
better than expected retail sales report and a jump in consumer sentiment. The
bullish response by investors to the friendly retail and consumer confidence
numbers is a sign that speculators believe the Fed has enough evidence to hike
interest rates sooner than expected.
The U.S. Dollar soared to the upside to finish the week
sharply higher after the government reported better than expected retail sales
in November.The increase was more than
twice pre-report estimates.The
Greenback received an additional boost after the University of Michigan
reported a greater than expected uptick in consumer confidence.
The March Euro turned the weekly main trend down today when
it crossed the main bottom at 1.4625.The current break has already tested 50% of the 1.4045 August bottom to
the 1.5144 November top at 1.4594.A
further break to 1.4465 is likely if downside momentum continues to build.
Besides signs the U.S.
economy is improving, the Euro was pressured all week by credit rating
downgrades in Dubai, Greece,
Spain and Portugal.
The March British Pound finished the week lower.The short-term range is 1.5706 to
1.6878.The retracement zone of this
range at 1.6292 to 1.6254 was tested this week and held.Most of the damage done this week occurred on
the daily chart.
This week the Bank of England agreed to leave interest rates
unchanged as well as its quantitative easing program. With Third Quarter GDP on
life-support, the BoE feels that the economy needs stimulus to help it turn the
corner.The major concern for British
Pound traders is the growing budget deficit and the ability to pay sovereign
debt. Traders are worried a credit rating service will downgrade U.K.
debt. This is speculation at this time, however.
After starting the week strong, the March Japanese Yen
collapsed on Friday following the release of the bullish U.S. Retail Sales
Report.The Yen also faced additional
pressure this week from a report showing Third Quarter GDP grew smaller than
estimated, Core machinery orders fell, consumer confidence was down and the
government approved a 7.2 trillion Yen stimulus package.The unwinding of the carry trade could put
additional pressure on the Japanese Yen next week.
The Swiss National Bank announced this week that it would
leave interest rates unchanged while signaling an end to its bond purchasing
program.It also left open the door for
more interventions should the Swiss Franc appreciate too much.The SNB feels that with the economy just now
pulling out of the recession, it remains too fragile to begin hiking interest
rates.Technically, the main trend
turned down on the weekly chart when the March Swiss Franc broke support at
The March Canadian Dollar finished a little lower this week,
but most of the action was spent inside of a pair of 50% price levels at .9504
to .9446.The Bank of Canada decided
this week to leave interest rates unchanged while calling the currency too
expensive.The BoC has expressed concern
previously about the Canadian Dollarâ€™s value and its negative effect on
exports.Speaking of exports, Canadaâ€™s
trade balance showed a surplus last month mainly because of the surge in gold
and silver. This news helped underpin
the Canadian Dollar late in the week.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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