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Monday December 14, 2009 - 03:32:51 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 14-Dec-2009 - 0330 GMT


The Dow traded flat last week and continued to abide by the range of 10250-10500. The same is expected to hold for this week as well. It has been holding on to the trendline Resistance on the weekly candles over the last several weeks now. A rise beyond 10500 if seen may target this trendline Resistance at 10700 for this week. There are a host of data releases this week and the next. This week is FOMC Mtg (Tue), CPI, Current Account and Housing Starts (Wed).

Among the Asian indices, the Shanghai has ended 2% lower this week while Nikkei has closed nearly 1% higher. The Sensex (17119.03) on the other hand has traded extremely flat last week. The markets do not intend to do anything significant ahead of the new year after having tired out after the last 9 months of rally.

Today, the Asian indices are trading lower despite better than expected Tankan Manufacturing Index numbers in Japan. The Shanghai (3181.95) is trading 2% lower, Hang Seng (21584.76) is 1.44% lower and Nikkei (10030.88) is 0.76% lower. The Asian cues are negative and we might see the same being replicated in Indian stocks.

Crude (69.18) fell sharply and closed lower 70 as the dollar strengthened. This is the eigth consecutive lower close and it has fallen nearly $10 this month from the high of 79.04 (01-Dec-09). The increase in inventories is keeping up the downside pressure on the price. Support is seen in 69.00-68.75 region a break below which might see further dip towards 67.50. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:

Gold (1123.50) fell on Friday and closed just below 1120 after recording an intraday low of 1110.20. The strong dollar is keeping the up downside pressure on the price. However the Support in 1120-1100 still holds and as mentioned earlier any weakness in dollar would reignite the upmove. 1075 and 1050 are the significant Support levels seen below 1100. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:

Most currency pairs are trading near crucial Supports/ Resistances today. Question is, has the correction that had set in at the beginning of December run its course?

The Dollar gained substantially against most currencies on Friday, but has come down a bit against the Yen today. The Euro (1.4638) came down on Friday to meet a crucial Weekly Support at 1.4615 and is trading on the razor's edge today. Dollar-Yen (88.50) had risen to 89.80 on Friday, but has come off from there. Since the overall outlook is "ranged/ bearish" for this pair, a further dip towards 87.70-50 is a possibility. As a result, there are chances of the Euro-Yen Cross dipping towards 127.70.

The Aussie (0.9075) has come off a bit over the last two days and is now trading at a crucial medium term trendline support. At stake is either a further dip towards 0.8907 or an immediate rise towards 0.9245. The Pound (1.6215) continues to slip, however, and has chances of dipping towards 1.6115. Dollar-Swiss (1.0328) is trading just below a crucial Weekly Resistance near the current level, mirroring the Support in the Euro.

Action in the Asian currencies so far today suggests controlled range trading rather than run-away Dollar bullishness. USD-SGD (1.3923) remains relatively calm below Range Resistance at 1.3955. Dollar-Won (1164.80) is also ranged between 1148 on the downside and 1167 on the upside. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 46.53 on Friday. The NDFs have traded near 46.73. Resistance at 46.80 might be tested this week, but could well hold.

3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.25%. The US Treasuries closed flat on Friday. The 2Y and 10Y yields are quoting near 0.79% and 3.51% respectively. The charts suggest that the longer term bonds seem to have turned ranged while the medium term (5Y) notes arer still struggling to find a bottom. To see the chart of USD Yields, click on:

FOMC Meeting is scheduled tomorrow and there aren't any expectations of a rate change as the Fed had announced of an "extended period" of low interest rates. Last week, the BOC and BOE had kept their key interest rates unchanged.

23:50 GMT JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
...Actual -24...Previous -33

10:00 GMT EU Nov IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected -0.6%...Previous 0.3%

EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal Q3 '09 (1st)
...Actual EUR 1.6 bln...Previous EUR -19.8 bln

EU EA (16) Bal of Trade in services
...Actual EUR 10.7 bln...Previous EUR 7.4 bln

EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal as % of GDP
...Actual 0.1%...Previous -1.1%

US Nov Retail Sales
...Actual 1.3%....Previous 1.1%



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