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Monday December 14, 2009 - 10:48:45 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 14/12/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 14, 2009
Fundamental Analysis: ZEW Economic Sentiment Report
German traders await publication of the ZEW Economic Sentiment Report, which will be released tomorrow (Dec 14).
The report determines sentiment among German institutional investors,
with analysts expecting a slight increase from last month's 50.10 to
The Economic Sentiment Report is a leading indicator of business
conditions. The reading is concluded from survey of about 350 German
institutional investors and analysts.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for
the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Euro surpassed the resistance 1.4734 but stopped very close to
Wednesdayâ€™s high, before reversing, and breaking the support 1.4692,
and then reaching the first suggested target 1.4610. The rising
trendline from Tuesdayâ€™s low (and the lower limit for the supposed
triangle pattern) is currently very close to Fibonacci 61.8% for the
short-term at 1.4701. This makes this double resistance the most
important, and only breaking it would improve the technical outlook for
the Euro. If broken, we will enter a correction for the whole drop from
1.5139, which will target 1.4796 at least, and probably 1.4826. As for
the support it is at 1.4656 and breaking it would mean that the rising
correction from Fridayâ€™s low is probably over, and that would target
1.4597 and then 1.4510.
â€¢ 1.4656: rising trendline on the intraday charts.
â€¢ 1.4597: important intraday low from Friday.
â€¢ 1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows.
â€¢ 1.4701: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the lower trendline
in the supposed triangle formation that was broken on Friday.
â€¢ 1.4796: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139.
â€¢ 1.4826: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139.
Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 89.05 and successfully reached the
first target 89.45, then came close to 90, settling for 89.79. this
morning the price dropped to 88.36 again, to find the trendline that we
introduced in the past few days providing it with support. That was the
4th time the price encountered this line, which clearly means it
deserves our attention. That is why we will consider it as support of
the day, and it is currently running at 88.43. If itâ€™s broken, the drop
from 89.79 will continue and the next pair of targets will be Fibonacci
support levels at 87.78 & 87.08. As for the resistance, it is
provided by the falling trendline from 89.79 on the intraday charts,
which is currently at 88.87. And if broken, another 89.45 visit will be
expected, and if this is also broken, we will jump to 90.08 at least.
â€¢ 88.43: a trendline that touched price 4 times.
â€¢ 87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
â€¢ 87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
â€¢ 88.87: the falling trendline from Fridayâ€™s top on the intraday charts.
â€¢ 89.45: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
â€¢ 90.08: hourly resistance.
Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See our new commodities section on Forexpros.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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