European Market Update: Austria 's nationalization of Hypo Alpe- Adria Bank eclipse the initial euphoria over the Dubai World debt restructuring; Reminding markets that effects from the financial cris
Monday, December 14, 2009
European Market Update: Austria 's nationalization of Hypo Alpe- Adria Bank eclipse the initial euphoria over the Dubai World debt restructuring; Reminding markets that effects from the financial crisis still lingers
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (IN) India Nov Wholesale Prices Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.2%e - (FI) Finland Nov CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.9%e - (FR) French Oct Current Account: -â‚¬4.5B v -â‚¬4.0Be - (FR) France Q3 Final Wages Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e - (CZ) Czech Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: % v -4.6%e - (CZ) Czech Oct Final Industrial Output: -7.2% v -7.3% prior, Construction Output: 0.1% v 3.4% prior - (SP) Spain Oct House Transactions Y/Y: -21.3% v -17.2% prior - (SZ) Swiss Nov Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -3.3% v -3.1%e - (HK) Hong Kong Q3 Industrial Production Y/Y: -8.6% v -9.5% prior; Producer Prices Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.9% prior - (EU) Euro-zone Q3 Employment: -0.5% v -0.5% prior, Y/Y: -2.1% v -1.8% prior - (EU) Euro-zone Oct Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -11/1% v -10.8%e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets followed strength out of Asia as Abu Dhabi ended speculation by stepping in to bail out its oil free neighbor. In what is effectively at $10B gift to Dubai, Abu Dhabi has reiterated its position as head emirate and Dubai World has guaranteed a full repayment of its Nakaheel debt within 14-days. Banks and financials, specifically with global and Persian Gulf exposures rallied sharply on the news. Austrian nationalization of Hypo-Adria failed to dampen this sector strength. In M&A news, French based AXA [CS.FR] and AMP [AMP.AU] raised their offer for Axa Asia Pac Holdings and UK based Cadbury [CBRY.UK] raised its medium term gross margin guidance as part of its defense against Kraft [KFT]. UK bank Lloyds Banking Group [LLOY.UK] announced that existing holders took up 95.3% of the news share being placed in its Â£13.5B right offering portion of its Â£21B capital raise. Gartmore Group [GRT.UK] IPO'd on the LSE and quickly fell below its placement of price (that was at the low end of a lowered range) of 220p/share. In sector rotations, financials and tech led the upward trend on the EuroStoxx50 , every other sector traded in positive territory within the index. Trading volumes in the morning session have remained light across the board.
-Individual stocks: Lloyds [LLOY.UK]: Equity placement received 95.3% subscription. || Cadbury [CBRY.UK]: Issues Defence Document- Board unanimously rejects Kraft's wholly inadequate offer as it substantially undervalues Cadbury and recommends shareholders reject the Offer. || Whitbread [WTB.UK]: Provides interim management statement: Premier Inn 39-week Like-for-like -1.7%. || BP [BP.UK]: Divests Lukarco Tengiz oilfield stake to Lukoil for $1.6B in cash. || Metro [MEO.GE]: Acquisition and integration of former Arcandor department stores may lead to 25K job cuts -WirtschaftsWoche. || Heidelbergcement [HEI.GE]: Targeting acquisitions by the end of 2010 -Euro am Sonntag. ||
- Speakers: (FR) French Pres Sarkozy commenyted that the employment situation continued to deteriorate ||Polish Central Bank's Noga commented that Dec inflation could be around 3.7-3.8% level***India Fin Min Mukherjee commented that rising inflation remained a concern in India and stated that it was particularly evident in food items*** India Fin Sec Chawla stated that the Gov't was concerned over inflation outlook but no need for emergency action at this time ***World Bank official observed that the Dubai debt situation indicates the ripple of economic crisis is still alarming || HKMA's Chief Chan stated that Asia should focus more on risks of asset bubbles but hard to assess if such bubbles were forming. Capital influx of HK$640B since October of last year has boosted local asset prices as property prices have recovered to levels before the worldwide financial crisis hit last year *** Philippines Finance Sec Teves commented that the 2009 budget deficit to be below PHP300B (in line with recent revisions) but might raise 2010 deficit target from PHP233.4B level
- Currencies: The USD entered the European morning on a soft one after the Dubai World debt restructuring announcement. The GBP benefited the most on the initial news regarding Dubai World. GBP/USD jump around 100 pips to test 1.6325 as the debt structuring news as dealers speculated that UK banks would limit their exposure to the situation. However, GBP sentiment also weighted down by the lingering sovereign rating. The UK Mail online article noted that the world was losing faith in the debt laden UK with the BOE concerned about the vast quantity of gov't bonds that would have to be sold over the coming years. Some dealers also attributed that GBP was also softer on receding M&A flows after Cadbury issues defiance document to the Kraft merger offer. The nationalization of an Austrian bank reminded the market that the effects of the financial crisis still lingers
- Fixed Income: Government bonds are modestly bid in thin volumes this morning in Europe, despite an improvement in risk appetite stemming from Abu Dhabi's $10B worth of support for Dubai. Yield curves have flattened with the long end subject to better buying on both sides of the pond. Euro-zone peripheral markets are broadly firmer against the core with Ireland and Spain notable standouts, both narrower by 2.5bps. Greece remains the exception,7bps wider at Bunds +215bps. French President Sarkozy launched a new â‚¬35B national investment program, of which â‚¬22B is to be funded via debt issuance. Sarkozy remarked that he was open to debate on deficit reduction, but that he believed taxes could not be raised further and that increased tax receipts from the recovery would be used to pay off debt. 10 y OAT's are unmoved at Bunds+25bps. Treasuries are firmer in the overnight session. The 10y Note has outperformed the rest of the curve, with the yield -3bps at 3.52%.
- Energy: Kuwaiti Oil Minister stated that he was not concerned about oil prices falling below $70/bbl and it would not affect decision at upcoming OPEC meeting later this month *** Russia halted gas supplies to Armenia with the move came after a bomb was found close to a pipeline in southern Russia. According to the report, supplies to Georgia had not been affected. *** Analysts at Goldman Sachs comment on WTI prices into 2010; See the benchmark at $82/bbl in Q1
- Commodities: Brazilian Agriculture Min commented that its country's 2009 sugar output levels seen at 34M, up 10% y/y. Sugar prices to stay at high levels due to India and that Brazil mills to produce more to offset lower India output
- In the papers: UK Mail online article noted that the world was losing faith in the debt laden UK with the BOE concerned about the vast quantity of gov't bonds that would have to be sold over the coming years: ***Nobel Laureate Mundell commented in a press interview that the Euro was adequately priced between 1.20 to 1.60 area. Article noted that the range should be narrowed to $1.30 to $1.50 over time to make it easier for businesses to plan foreign trade and that the FED and ECB should agree to defend the range. Mundell noted that currency fluctuations were a source of the financial crises *** WSJ "Heard on the Street" article note that future oil production increases by Iraq could hurt prices. Article noted that increased supplies could be a risk for the outlook of oil prices as according to IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates the avg size of oil discoveries in 2009 has risen by 35% y/y. Iraq was one country that could seek to raise production in the future. Foreign oil companies sought to increase Iraq's output from 5 fields by 12-fold to 8.5M bpd. The article noted that even if Iraq only rose by 1.5M bpd by 2015, it could hurt oil prices.
***Notes: - Risk appetite gets a boost after Abu Dhabi bailed out Dubai World with $10B pledge - Austria agrees to nationalization of Hypo Alpe-Adria; reminding markets that the effects of the global crisis lingers - Japan's Tankan headline better than expected but Capex component throws caution into the wind - NYMEX crude lower in the electronic session for the ninth consecutive day
***Looking Ahead: - (GE) Bundesbank to release monthly report expected - 8:30 (CA) Canadian Q3 Capacity Utilization Rate: 66.9%e v 67.4% prior - 15:30 (MX) Mexico Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: -4.6%e v -5.7% prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.