The U.S. Dollar is backing off a two-month high versus a
trade-weighted basket of currencies on the news that Dubai
received $10 billion in financing from Abu
Dhabi to pay part of the debt held by state-owned
Dubai World. This event is helping to alleviate one of the concerns which drove
traders into the Dollar last week, the others being downgrades in Greece, Portugal
The overnight selling pressure is a sign that traders may be less risk averse
and looking at taking on more risk today in the higher yielding currencies.
The main concern for investors this week is the Federal
Reserve Open Market Committee meeting on December 16th.Since its last meeting in November, the U.S.
unemployment rate has dropped to 10% and retail sales have risen above
expectations. Job losses and the lack of consumer spending are two key
determinants studied by the Fed.Traders
are looking for the Fed to look at these two reports and perhaps issue a more
hawkish statement.A dovish statement
will be a surprise which is not likely to bode well for the Dollar.
The EUR USD is up slightly after bouncing off a 50% price at
1.4594.The initial thrust in this
market overnight was provided by the surprise news out of Abu Dhabi regarding its partial bailout of
Dubai World.Gains have been muted,
however, by the news that Euro Zone industrial production fell for the 18th
month while employment extended its decline.
The news out of Dubai
is not helping the GBP USD.British
Pound traders have enough on their tables than to worry about sovereign debt
issues in the Middle East.The U.K. has budget and debt issues of
its own.Last week, traders had to deal
with the threat of a credit rating downgrade.While this fear has been alleviated, concerns this week will be about
inflation growth and jobless claims.Technically, this currency pair is trying to build a support base inside
of a retracement zone at 1.6292 to 1.6154.
The USD JPY is under pressure as traders reverse positions
initiated last week because of debt concerns in Dubai. The chart indicates the possibility of
a pull-back of this currency pair into 50%/Gann angle support at 87.80 to
The USD CHF is trading slightly lower overnight.Resistance is being provided by last weekâ€™s
high at 1.0367. Weakness is being indicated by this pairâ€™s failure to hold the
old main top at 1.0337.This is usually
a sign that conditions are overbought and that the last drive higher was most
likely stop driven rather than fresh buying.
Weaker Gold and crude oil prices could be weighing on the
Canadian Dollar overnight.Technical
factors could also be contributing to the strength in the USD CAD.The inability to break the U.S. Dollar last
week coupled with a potentially bullish chart formation is helping to support
prices.Support is at 1.0598.Resistance drops in at 1.0691.
The AUD USD is under pressure this morning despite a strong
rally in U.S.
equity markets overnight.Trader
concerns over this weekâ€™s 3rd Quarter GDP Report and the Reserve Bank of
Australiaâ€™s minutes could be causing investors to stand aside overnight.
Technical factors could be contributing to the weakness
also.Last week, the Aussie rallied,
only to find resistance at a 50% level at .9167.The current chart formation suggests the
start of a secondary lower top formation and the possibility of a confirmation
of the down trend on a move through .9014.
The New Zealand Dollar hasnâ€™t been able to maintain the
strong momentum triggered by last weekâ€™s hawkish central bank statement.Although that news was fundamentally bullish,
this market may have reached an overbought level when it neared a 50% price
level at .7328.The current chart
formation suggests the NZD USD is poised for a pull-back to .7180 to
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
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15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
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