U.S. Equity Markets Soar as Dubai Debt Concerns Ease
stock index futures soared after Abu
Dhabi announced a $10 billion infusion into cash
strapped Dubai World.This news helped
alleviate some of the concerns that have been holding back the rally in equity
markets since the Dubai
debt news broke in late November. December E-mini Dow futures rallied to a new
high for the year.The December E-mini
NASDAQ is trading slightly below its contract high at 1816.25.The December E-mini S&P 500 stopped just short
of a new high at 1118.00.The next
upside objective of this rally is a key 50% price level at 1122.00.Since traders have been reluctant to buy
strength, watch for an early morning sell-off to set up the first buying
Treasury futures are trading slightly better.March Treasury Bonds have been selling off
since the Dubai
debt news broke on November 27th. Traders have been building a risk premium
into yields since that date.This has
been driving up interest rates while driving down Bonds.The overnight news may cause some traders to
lighten up on their concerns about a default in Dubai which could trigger a much needed
The U.S. Dollar is backing off a two-month high versus a
trade-weighted basket of currencies on the news that Dubai
received $10 billion in financing from Abu
Dhabi to pay part of the debt held by state-owned
Dubai World. This event is helping to alleviate one of the concerns which drove
traders into the Dollar last week, the others being downgrades in Greece, Portugal
The overnight selling pressure is a sign that traders may be less risk averse
and looking at taking on more risk today in the higher yielding currencies.
The main concern for investors this week is the Federal
Reserve Open Market Committee meeting on December 16th.Since its last meeting in November, the U.S.
unemployment rate has dropped to 10% and retail sales have risen above
expectations. Job losses and the lack of consumer spending are two key
determinants studied by the Fed.Traders
are looking for the Fed to look at these two reports and perhaps issue a more
hawkish statement.A dovish statement
will be a surprise which is not likely to bode well for the Dollar.
The March Euro is up slightly after bouncing off a 50% price
at 1.4594.The initial thrust in this
market overnight was provided by the surprise news out of Abu Dhabi regarding its partial bailout of
Dubai World.Gains have been muted,
however, by the news that Euro Zone industrial production fell for the 18th
month while employment extended its decline.
The news out of Dubai
is not helping the March British Pound.Cable
traders have enough on their tables than to worry about sovereign debt issues
in the Middle East.The U.K. has budget and debt issues of
its own.Last week, traders had to deal
with the threat of a credit rating downgrade.While this fear has been alleviated, concerns this week will be about
inflation growth and jobless claims.Technically, this currency is trying to build a support base inside of a
retracement zone at 1.6292 to 1.6154.
The U.S. Dollar is under pressure versus the Japanese Yen as
traders reverse positions initiated last week because of debt concerns in Dubai. The chart
indicates the possibility of a rally of the March Japanese Yen into Gann angle
resistance at 1.1239.
The March Swiss Franc is trading slightly better
overnight.Support is being provided by
last weekâ€™s low at .9651. Strength is being indicated by this currencyâ€™s
failure to hold the old main bottom at .9690.This is usually a sign that conditions are oversold, and that the last
drive lower was most likely stop driven rather than fresh selling.
Weaker Gold and crude oil prices could be weighing on the March
Canadian Dollar overnight.Technical
factors could also be contributing to the weakness.The inability to break the U.S. Dollar last
week coupled with a potentially bearish chart formation is helping to weaken
prices.Support is at .9365.Resistance drops in at .9446
The weaker Dollar is helping to support February Gold this
morning.A key 50% price at $1107.40
along with last weekâ€™s low at $1110.20 is providing the strongest technical
support. This market is dependent on the Dollar at this time.A hard sell-off in the Dollar could trigger a
retracement to $1169.00.
March Crude Oil is in a weak position on the charts.
Currently this market is trading under a key .618 price at 73.63.Regaining this level could trigger a
short-covering rally back to 75.53.Sharply higher equity price and a stronger Dollar will provide support,
but it is going to take speculators to drive this market higher.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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