U.S. Equity markets treaded water most of the session after
a firm opening.Once again a gap-higher
opening during the day session in the stock indices failed to attract strong
buying interest.This was no surprise,
however, as traders have backed away many times from chasing this market during
its nine-month rally. The December E-mini S&P 500 stopped at 1118.00, just
short of the high for the month at 1119.00 and below a major 50% price at
1122.00. A break under 1108.00 will indicate developing weakness.
Todayâ€™s failure to rally to a new high for the year on good
news indicates that investors are uncertain about the Fedâ€™s statement later
Treasury futures traded flat most of the day.The Abu Dhabi
bailout of Dubai
helped to alleviate the pressure to increase yields as concerns over credit
rating downgrades subsided.
The U.S. Dollar finished lower today against a basket of
trade weighted currencies. The Greenback was under pressure all day and never
quite recovered following an overnight announcement that Dubai
received $10 billion in financing from Abu
Dhabi to pay part of the debt held by the state-owned
Global investor concerns were eased by this event because it
helped to alleviate the need to use the Dollar as a safe haven investment. Last
week, the Dollar rose partly after a credit ratings downgrade of Dubai owned entities along with downgrades of Greece, Portugal
Trading was lackluster and slow ahead of this weekâ€™s Federal
Reserve Open Market Committee meeting on December 10th.Investors seemed reluctant to take a big
position ahead of this last meeting for the year. Since the FOMCâ€™s last meeting
in November, the U.S.
unemployment rate has dropped to 10% and retail sales have risen above
expectations. Job losses and consumer spending are two key input factors the
Fed uses to determine its interest rate policy.
Traders are hoping the Fed looks at the improvement in these
two factors and issues a more hawkish statement.A dovish statement will be a surprise which
is not likely to bode well for the Dollar.
The March Euro finished slightly higher after bouncing off a
50% price at 1.4594 Sunday night.The
initial thrust in this market overnight was provided by the surprise news out
of Abu Dhabi
regarding its partial bailout of Dubai World.Gains were muted, however, by the news that Euro Zone industrial
production fell for the 18th month while employment extended its decline and
uncertainty over the Fedâ€™s next decision.
The March British Pound rebounded after trading lower
overnight. The news out of Dubai
did not helping the Cable.The lack of
follow-through to the downside after New
York open most likely led to short-covering.British Pound traders have enough on their
tables than to worry about sovereign debt issues in the Middle
East.The U.K. has budget and debt issues of
The March Japanese Yen was underpinned all day from traders
reversing their short positions initiated last week. This currency pair closed
on a 50% price at 1.1318. The chart indicates the possibility of a further
rally to the 50% resistance at 1.1407.
The March Swiss Franc finished slightly higher in light
trading.Support was provided by last
weekâ€™s low at .9651. Strength was indicated when this currency regained the old
main bottom at .9690.This is usually a
sign that conditions are oversold and that the last drive lower was most likely
stop driven rather than fresh selling.
Firm crude oil and stronger equity markets helped to support
the March Canadian Dollar late in the trading session.This market continues to drift inside of a
tight and narrow range without much direction.Unless something major comes out that will ignite some movement, look
for trading to continue on both sides of .9504 and .9446.
The weaker Dollar helped boost February Gold on Monday.Oversold conditions as well as the failure to
break last weekâ€™s low at $1110.20 also helped support the market.Additional support comes in at a 50% price at
$1107.40.The daily chart indicates
there is room to the upside with $1150.00 a potential upside target.
Firmer equity markets and a weaker Dollar helped March Crude
Oil rebound off an early low at 72.45.Unfortunately, this market just missed posting a daily closing price
reversal bottom.In addition, the market
once again failed to regain a .618 retracement level at 73.63.A close above 73.63 could trigger a further
rally to 75.53.News that OPEC would not
change its output kept downside pressure on this market.Unless demand pick-ups, look for more
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