Tuesday December 15, 2009 - 03:41:06 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 15-Dec-2009 - 0332 GMT
The US stocks surged after Abu Dhabi came out to help Dubai make its debt payments. The Dow (10501.05) continued to face Resistance at 10500 as it has been over the last several days now. The range for the Dow over the last several days has been 10250-10500. A break above 10500 might make the index very bullish going forward into the new year though a break is not envisaged unless seen. The news about Exxon Mobil's acquisition of XTO energy in a $29 bio deal was also received by the markets with open hands.
The Asian indices are trading lower today. The shanghai (3278.47) is trading 0.74% lower, the Nikkei (10087.18) is 0.18% lower. The Sensex (17097.55) closed flat after trading higher for most part yesterday. The Sensex has overall been trading very ranged between 17000 and 17350 over the last few days as the Resistance at 17300 has been weighing on the index. To see the chart of Sensex, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/sensexcandle.shtml#candle
Crude (69.85) is continuing to trade below 70. The Support in 69-68.75 region mentioned earlier has held and it has risen from yesterday's low of 68.60. The Commodity is looking mixed now with greater downside pressure, as the increasing inventories are keeping up the concerns of energy demand.
Gold (1127.70) is remaining silent and is trading in between 1110-1150 over the last few days. The Support in 1120-00 region is holding the Commodity above 1100 which is keeping the overall bullish sentiment intact. As mentioned earlier any weakness in dollar would reignite the upmove.
The currency market has been quiet through the US session yesterday and early Asian session today. Most of the crucial supports/ resistances that the market was trading at/ testing yesterday are holding as of now. All eyes will be on the FOMC tomorrow. Before that there is a lot of data to be released today, details of which are given below.
For now, the Euro (1.4649) trades above the 1.4615 Support. Dollar-Yen (88.73) has, importantly, stayed above Support at 88.25. A rise past 89.10 today would reduce the current anxieties in the global markets. Euro-Yen (129.98) is managing to stay above 129.10. A rise past 130.10 may lead to a test of 131.00. The Aussie (0.9133) is quiet, trading just below an important Resistance in the 0.9180-9210 region. The Pound (1.6306) has found a good Support in the 1.6200-6160 region over the last 4 days and might be good for a 100-150 bounce towards 1.6460 now. Dollar-Swiss (1.0325) has been quiet, like the Euro, trading just below an important Resistance at 1.0359.
In Asia, the Sing Dollar is also quiet at 1.3913, within a range of 1.3880-3940. Dollar-Won (1161.90) had dipped quite a bit to 1152.15 yesterday, vindicating our "ranged" outlook. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 46.71 yesterday, but might dip towards 47.60-50 today as the 46.20-80 range continues to hold.
3M USD LIBOR was set at 0.25%. The yields on US Treasuries have little changed for farther maturities while the yields on medium term maturities rose. The 2Y yields rose 4 bps to quote at 0.84% while the 10Y yields were unchanged at 3.54%.
FOMC is scheduled to make an interest rate announcement tomorrow. Central banks of most of the developed nations have kept their interest rates very low to allow time for the economy to recover. However, Australia has been the 1st among developed nations to have increased interest rates thrice this year from 3.00% to 3.75%.
01:30 GMT US Nov Core PPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.3%...Previous -0.6%
01:30 GMT US Nov Core PPI (YoY)
14:00 GMT US Nov TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
......Expected $ 50.3 Bln...Previous $ 40.7 Bln
14:15 GMT US Nov Industrial Production
...Expected 0.6%...Previous 0.1%
14:15 GMT US Nov Capacity Utilization
...Expected 71.1%...Previous 70.7%
JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
...Actual -24...Previous -33
10:00 GMT EU Nov IND Prodn (MoM)
...Actual -0.6%...Previous 0.2%
US Nov Retail Sales
...Actual 1.3%....Previous 1.1%
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