European Marlet Update: Concerns continue to simmer on the edges of the European financial front; German ZEW survey shows the fragility of the economic recovery; Dollar benefits as equity markets show
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
European Marlet Update: Concerns continue to simmer on the edges of the European financial front; German ZEW survey shows the fragility of the economic recovery; Dollar benefits as equity markets show unease
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (SZ) Swiss SECO Economic Forecasts: Raises 2009 and 2010 GDP slightly upwards - (EU) EU 25 new car registrations: 26.9% v 11.6% prior - (FI) Finland Oct Final Retail Sales: -1.8% v -1.2% prior - (FR) French Nov CPI M/M; 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e - (FR) French CPI- EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5%e; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 118.31 v 118.51e - (HU) Hungarian Oct Final Industrial Output M/M: 1.8% v 1.8% prior, Y/Y: -10.8% v -10.8% prior - (CZ) Czech Nov PPI (Industrial) M/M: 0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -2.4% v -2.8%e - (CZ) Czech Oct Export Price Index Y/Y: -3.2% v -4.3% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: -8.1% v -9.3% prior - (TU) Turkish Sept Unemployment Rate: 13.4% v 14.0%e - (SP) Spanish Nov CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.4%e - (SP) Spanish Nov CPI - Core M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.1%e - (SP) Spanish Nov CPI- EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e - (SZ) Swiss Q3 Industrial Production Q/Q: 3.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -6.7% v -9.6%e - (NV) Netherlands Oct Trade Balance: â‚¬3.8B v â‚¬3.9B prior - (NV) Netherlands Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: -4.3% v -4.0%e - (DE) Danish Nov Wholesale prices M/M: 0.6% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.9% v -5.3% prior - (IT) Italian Q3 Labor Costs Q/Q: 0.5% v 1.0% prior, Y/Y: 1.8% v 4.5% prior - (NO) Norway Nov Trade balance (NOK) 29.8B v 27.4B prior - (RU) Russia Nov Industrial Production M/M: 2.0% v -1.1%e; Y/Y:1.5% v -0.6%e; First positive YoY reading since Oct 2008 - (UK) Nov CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e - (UK) RPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Ex Mortgages: 2.7% 2.6%e; RPI Index: 216.6 v 216.6e - (UK) UK Oct DCLG House prices Y/Y: -2.2% v -4.1% prior; best reading since Oct 2008 - (SA) South Africa CPI (all items) M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 5.8% v 5.9%e - (GE) German ZEW Survey - Econ sentiment: 50.4 v 50.0e; Current situation: -60.6 v -60.1e - (EU) Euro-zone ZEW - Econ sentiment: 48.0 v 50.0e - (EU) Euro-zone Q3 Labor Costs Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.5%e - (BR) Brazil Oct Retail Sales M/M: 1.4% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 8.4% v 6.4%
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets opened on a positive theme but fell into negative territory within 15 minutes of trading. Sentiment has been heavy in the equity world throughout with a negative close in mainland China offsetting continued satisfaction out of the Dubai/Abu Dhabi arrangement. After market NY commentary from Wells Fargo [WFC] that it would be joining the TARP exit party moved those shares higher, while rival Citi [C] continued to trade down. UK RPI and CPI data for Nov failed to provide an equity catalyst and with the Euro ZEW figure reading below 50 at 5:00EST, equity markets pushed to new trading lows. Downward rotation has been led by a mixed bag of names with British Airlines [BAY.UK] continuing lower following a labor strike vote along with a number of financials including Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE], Dexia [DEXB.BE], Allianz [ALV.GE] and the UK tier 1 names. Disappointing Nov LFL sales from retailer H&M [HMB.SW] continued a downward trend for that firm. Notable outperformers included steel name ArcellorMittal [MT.NV] following positive comments from UBS and MAN Ag [MAN.GE] following renewed VW [VOW.GE] takeover expectations. Volumes throughout the morning session have been light.
-In individual equities: National Express [NEX.UK]: Received 90.47% valid acceptances for rights issue. || Tui [TUI1.GE]: Reports shortened FY09 net â‚¬333M v â‚¬34M y/y, Rev â‚¬13.1B v â‚¬15.2B y/y. || Valero [FR.FR]: Raises Q4 guidance to +17% y/y; Asian demand and scrappage schemes boosting performance. || Swiss Life [SLHN.SZ]: Targets ROE of 10% to 12% by 2012; Sees dividend payment ratio of 20-40% by 2012. || H&M [HMB.SW]: Reports Nov SSS -9% y/y. ||
- Speakers: Swiss SECO raised its 2010 economic growth forecast as the global recovery gained pace, although it warned that an upturn would remain sluggish until 2011. Growth expectations, especially for 2010, are rather moderate because the dynamics in the global economy are expected to remain on a quite low level,*** ZEW Economists stated that the German economy had reached a bottom, next year there will be a recovery but "no upswing"*** ) German Econ Min:; German economy remained fragile and dependent of further government stimulus measures. He did express optimism over the country's export sector *** IATA forecasted 2010 airline sector loss at $5.6B versus $3.8B prior view. The sector loss for 2009 remained at $11B. The IATA stated that worse in commercial airline sector was now seen as likely**UBS [UBSN.SZ] stated that it would not initiate legal actions against former senior executives in connection to subprime losses *** Austrian Central Bank commented that Volksbanken was not on a special watch list; OeVAG I did not have a bad result in stress-Test
- Currencies: The USD recovered to its best level in two months against the Euro and Swiss currencies aided by thinning liquidity conditions coupled with lingering concerns over the health of the global financial system. Risk aversion was enhanced after a newspaper report that Austria's banking regulators had concerns over another entity within its borders. Fitch analyst added to the sentiment after expressing that European banks could face rating action over its commercial property losses. The interest rate differentials also played a role in helping the dollar as the US 2-year noted reproached the 0.85% level. The FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday was expected to surprise the market. However, the USD technical picture was constructive at this time and some dealers pondering if the scenario was ripe for a central bank to perform the task of moving away from verbal intervention towards a more direct approach, even a coordinated action.
-The EUR/USD tested the 1.4530 level after the German IFO barely registered a 50 reading adding to the fragility of the economic recovery. USD/CHF holding onto the 1.04 handle for a majority of the European morning for its best level since early Oct. Austrian Central Bank downplayed the market rumors of concerns inside its banking secotr.
- Fixed Income: Despite a raft of measures and promises outlined by the PM yesterday, bond markets remain unconvinced that Greece is ready to take the tough steps needed to get on the path to fiscal credibility. The Greek finance Minister was wheeled out to alleviate, ultimately offering little by way of specifics. The Greek 10 year is 20bps wider on the session and approaching tssting resistance at Bunds+250bps. The rest of the euroz-one peripheral complex is weaker against the core, with one notable under-performer being Austria. With its own, separate financial sector concerns the 10-year RAGB is 3bps wider on the day at +35bps. Gilts are weaker across the curve with the benchmark 10 year yield up +2bps at 3.854% while in UST's, the 2 year note has flirted with the pivotal 0.85% mark throughout the European morning while 10s are unchanged at 3.55%.
- Energy: ENI.IT began production at Oyo Nigerian offshore field with production target at 25K bpd
- In the papers: Austria May Nationalize OeVAG Bank, Loss Up To â‚¬20B. Austrian daily "Die Presse" Austria's three banking supervisory authoritities FMA, Fimbag and the Austrian central bank (OeNB) have silently put Oesterreichische Volksbanken AG (OeVAG), the 4th largest bank of the country, under surveillance, fearing that it may become a casualty of the spreading banking crisis. None of the 3 supervisory bodies has officially publicized this warning to the public so far, continuing a trend of downplaying the grave situation of this small country's banking sector.
-Credit Crunch: Fitch analyst note that European banks could face rating action over commercial property. The note stated that European banks, including those in the U.K., Spain and Ireland, have high exposure to the crisis-hit commercial real estate sector, and some of them could face negative rating actions as loan losses peak next year. Fitch believes there will be instances of banks being over-optimistic about economic recovery prospects and future asset price trends, and may be somewhat reliant on sentiment improving before leases and to some extent loans fall due for renewal. A prolonged period of economic weakness and/or further asset value declines could therefore result in a significant rise in defaults and losses
***Notes: -FED begin a two-day policy meeting. No surprises expected -Australia's RBA: Prior Interest Rate increases give flexibility -German IFO shows fragility of economic recovery
***Looking Ahead: - (RU) Russia Nov Producer Prices M/M: % v -0.2%e; Y/Y: % v 5.9%e - (BE) Belgium Oct Trade balance: No est v â‚¬1.2B prior - 6:30 (CL) Chile Nov Copper Exports No est v $2.5B prior - 7:45 (US) ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales: No est v -1.3% prior - 8:00 (PD) Polish Nov CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior , Y/Y: 3.4%e v 3.1% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canadian Nov Leading Indicators M/M: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canadian Labor productivity: -0.35e v 0.0% prior - 8:30 (US) Nov Producer Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v -0.6% prior, Y/Y: 1.8%e v -1.9% prior, - 8:30 (US) Nov PPI Ex food & Energy M/M: 0.25e v -0.6% prior, Y/Y: 0.95e v 0.7% prior - 8:30 (US) Dec Empire Manufacturing: 24.00e v 23.51 prior - 8:55 (US) Redbook Retail Sales: No est v 1.2% prior - 9:00 (US) Oct Net Long Term Tic Flows: $37.1Be v $40.7B prior , Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $133.5B prior - 9:00 (PD) Poland Nov Budget level (PLN): No est v -2.6B prior - 9:15 (US) Nov Industrial Production: 0.5%e v 0.1% prior; Capacity Utilization: 71.1%e v 70.7% prior
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