Dollar Traders Betting on Hawkish Comment from Fed
The U.S. Dollar traded higher all day as speculators
increased bets that the Fed would issue a more hawkish monetary policy
statement tomorrow. Last night the main trend turned up on the weekly chart
leading to a firm opening this morning.
The EUR USD stopped just short of piercing 1.4500.
Overnight, sellers hit the Euro hard following the release of the German ZEW
Economic Expectation Index report. Better than expected U.S. economic data and concerns over Euro Zone
bank exposure to Greece, Portugal and Spain debt helped accelerate the
The GBP USD was under pressure all day but remained inside
of a retracement zone at 1.6292 to 1.6154.Overnight news that U.K. November CPI increased to 1.9% was largely
ignored by traders since the pre-report guess was for an increase of 1.8%.This currency is not likely to move until it
breaks out of its short-term trading range.
Todayâ€™s better than expected U.S. Industrial Output report
put downside pressure on the Japanese Yen as it sent a signal to traders that
the Fed was coming closer to hiking its benchmark interest rate. Traders have
become more confident that the Fed will hike rates sooner than expected while
the Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.10% on
December 17th.The increase in the
spread between the two interest rates helped trigger a reversal in the
carry-trade. Investors bought Dollars to payback loans while simultaneously borrowing
Weaker Gold and the stronger Dollar helped trigger an
overnight rally in the USD CHF.The up
move accelerated throughout the day following the release of the better than
expected U.S. Industrial Output report. This currency is now at its highest
level since October. Swiss traders are pricing in possible banking issues with
Euro Zone banks.
The Canadian Dollar traded weaker on Tuesday but remained
inside the two month range. Stronger gold helped this market turnaround after
early downside pressure.Firmer crude
oil could help limit losses.
The AUD USD was under pressure most of the day following the
release of bearish comments in the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes. The RBA minutes
showed that arguments for a third rate increase were â€śfinely balancedâ€ť.This change in member attitude had the effect
of â€śmaterially shifting the stance of policy to a less accommodative
setting.â€ťIn other words, its time to
take a pause in rate hikes. The odds of a rate hike in February dropped from 80
percent to 66 percent.
The NZD USD finished the session down but off its low. This
market hasnâ€™t been able to attract any buyers since the spike to the upside
last week after the release of the hawkish statement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.Itâ€™s beginning to look like last weekâ€™s two
day rally was enough for investors to adjust their dovish positions.The chart indicates plenty of room to the
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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