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Tuesday December 15, 2009 - 23:15:17 GMT
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Stock Index Futures Sell Off Ahead of Fed Statement

Equity markets sold off sharply into the close ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. Traders have been reluctant to chase stocks higher this week despite better than expected economic news which showed the U.S. economy is improving.

 

March Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes traded under pressure all day.  Investors continued to drive yields higher in anticipation of a rate hike by the Fed by June 2010.  Traders are nervous that the Fed may put out a more hawkish comment tomorrow which may move up the date of the first rate hike in years.  Today’s better than expected U.S. producer prices and industrial output reports helped trigger a hard intra-day break in both markets.

 

February Gold moved higher after trading sharply lower overnight because of the stronger Dollar.  Gold bottomed at $1112.00 this morning after the release of the U.S. Producer inflation data.  Today’s action could be a sign that traders have exhausted gold’s relationship with the Dollar and may now shift to reacting to an inflationary scenario.

 

March Crude Oil held yesterday’s low at 72.45 and held firm throughout the day. The boost in U.S. Industrial Production helped to contribute to the rally as it indicates a possible increase in demand for energy in the future. At the close, the market held a .618 price level at 73.63. The chart formation indicates a rally to 75.53 is possible over the short run.

 

The U.S. Dollar traded higher all day as speculators increased bets that the Fed would issue a more hawkish monetary policy statement tomorrow. Last night the main trend turned up on the weekly chart leading to a firm opening this morning. 

 

The March Euro stopped just short of piercing 1.4500. Overnight, sellers hit the Euro hard following the release of the German ZEW Economic Expectation Index report. Better than expected U.S. economic data and concerns over Euro Zone bank exposure to Greece, Portugal and Spain debt helped accelerate the decline.

 

The March British Pound was under pressure all day but remained inside of a retracement zone at 1.6292 to 1.6154.  Overnight news that U.K. November CPI increased to 1.9% was largely ignored by traders since the pre-report guess was for an increase of 1.8%.  This currency is not likely to move until it breaks out of its short-term trading range.

 

Today’s better than expected U.S. Industrial Output report put downside pressure on the March Japanese Yen as it sent a signal to traders that the Fed was coming closer to hiking its benchmark interest rate. Traders have become more confident that the Fed will hike rates sooner than expected while the Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.10% on December 17th.  The increase in the spread between the two interest rates helped trigger a reversal in the carry-trade. Investors bought Dollars to payback loans while simultaneously borrowing Yen.

 

Weaker Gold and the stronger Dollar helped trigger an overnight break in the March Swiss Franc.  The down move accelerated throughout the day following the release of the better than expected U.S. Industrial Output report. This currency is now at its highest level since October. Swiss traders are pricing in possible banking issues with Euro Zone banks.  

 

The March Canadian Dollar traded weaker on Tuesday but remained inside the two month range. Stronger gold helped this market turnaround after early downside pressure.  Firmer crude oil could help limit losses.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 15 Jan 2018
00:00 US- Holiday
Tue 16 Jan 2018
09:00 GB- CPI
20:00 US- Beige Book
Wed 17 Jan 2018
00:30 AU- Employment
02:00 CN- GDP
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:00 CA- Bank of Canada Decision
Thu 17 Jan 2018
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
16:00 US- EIA Crude
Fri 18 Jan 2018
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
15:00 US- University of Michigan (prelim) Survey


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium- Wed --14:15 GMT-- US- Industrial Production

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Wed -- 15:00 GMT-- CA- Bank Of Canada Decision


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