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Wednesday December 16, 2009 - 11:00:41 GMT
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European Market Update: UK jobless claims falls for the first time since Feb 2008 aids risk appetite

Wednesday, December 16, 2009 5:56:02 AM

 European Market Update: UK jobless claims falls for the first time since Feb 2008 aids risk appetite

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (SW) Swedish Riksbank left its Repo Rate at 0.25%; as expected
- (RU) Russia Nov Producer Prices M/M: -0.5% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.5% v 5.9%e
- (FR) French Dec PMI Manufacturing: 54.4 v 54.7e; PMI Services: 59.3 v 60.0e
- (SP) Spanish Q3 Labor Costs: 3.3% v 3.9% prior
- (HU) Hungarian Oct Av Gross Wages Y/Y: -1.6% v 0.7%e
- (TU) Turkish Nov Consumer Confidence: 78.4 v 80.5 prior
- (GE) German Dec Adv PMI Manufacturing: 53.1 v 52.6e; PMI Services: 53.1 v 51.9e
- (SW) Sweden Nov Avg House Prices (SEK): 1.85M v 1.78M prior
- (IT) Italian Nov Final CPI (NIC inc tobacco) M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (IT) Italian CPI- EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e
- (EU) Euro-zone Dec Adv PMI Manufacturing: 51.6 v 51.5e; PMI Services: 53.7 v 53.2e; PMI Composite: 54.2 v 54.0e
- (UK) Nov Jobless Claims Change:-6.3KK v 12.5Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 5.0% v 5.1%e
- (UK) Oct Avg Earnings inc Bonus: 1.5% v 1.2%e; Ex Bonus: 1.7% v 1.8%e
- (UK) Oct ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.9% v 7.9%e
- (UK) Manufacturing Unit Wage Cost: 3.0% v 3.5% prior
- (EU) Euro-zone Nov CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e
- (IT) Italy Oct Trade Balance: -€710M€75.8Me; Trade Balance EU: -€825M v -€332.5Me
- (IT) Italy Oct Current Account: -€3.3B v -€4.2B prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: European equity markets opened on a positive footing that initially driven by the financial sector. Despite a negative close to Asian trading, Asian financials, specifically in
Japan moved higher on the back of speculation that new capital regulations from Basel accords would not be enforced for up to 10 years. Mainland China saw a negative close that was attributed to liquidity concerns as new large IPO's listed. European financial equity strength was joined with sector rotation in UK home builders following commentary out of Citi. Throughout the morning session, European PMI figures supported the equity lightness and UK data at 4:30EST, including a negative jobless claims change figure further supported this move. While data has been the main driver of equity sentiment, analyst actions in individual names including Rentokil [RTO.UK] and Vallourec [VK.FR] led to independent outperformance. Hope that industrial action by cabin crews of British Airlines [BAY.UK] may be avoided has been lifted as management has agreed to meet with Unite. In regards to it €7.5B secondary offering, ING [INGA.NV] announced that 97% of the rights were taken up by holders, markets are awaiting the results of its 53.4M share rump placement. Trading volumes have come off their lows and are trading broadly in line with moving averages, financial and tech names are outperforming average volumes.

-In individual equities: ING [INGA.NV]: Shareholders took up 97% of rights issue; 53.4M rump placement to be completed prior to 17.30CET. || Kesa Electricals [KESA.UK]: Reports H1 Pretax £6M v £12Me, Rev £2.4B v £2.3Be. || GKN [GKN.UK]: Provides trading statement: Operations seen ahead of expectations. || Essilor International [EI.FR] Essilor International to acquire FGX International in $565M in deal including debt. || Accor [AC.FR]: Board of Directors approved unanimously (less one vote) the benefits of separating business groups. || Publics Group [PUB.FR]: Renault renews contract. ||

- Speakers: China's PBOC Quarterly Survey for Q4 showed that Household income confidence rose for second successive quarter but more households dissatisfied with current price levels *** India Trade Min Sharma commented that the country's export growth was sustainable in the coming months. *** French Budget Min Woerth stated that 3% debt to
GDP target by 2013 is possible with GDP growth between 2.55 to 3.0%. He pledged that taxes will not increase before 2012. public finances were at risk if the economy moved back into crisis *** Swedish Central Bank (Riksbank) commented after its unchanged rate decision. Reaffirms expectations that interest rates will be held at low rates through Fall 2010. The economic recovery was continuing with inflationary pressures low but it did forecast large CPI fluctuations in the future. Unemployment expected to rise but labor market not as weak as seen in Oct. the decision to leave rates on hold was not unanimous. Member Svennson sought a 25bps rate cut to zero percent. Members Nyberg and Wickman-Parak were against commitment to keeping rates on hold until autumn 2010 *** BoE's Miles commented that the £200B Quantitative Easing (QE) program was effective and helped reduce risks of undershooting the 2.0% inflation target. He noted that a smaller banking sector might mean lower benchmark interest rates in the future. Miles noted that very substantial slack seen in the U.K. economy and the future of quantitative easing must be assessed in context of slack. Impact of quantitative easing would not disappear when purchases stop. The BOE member stated that he remained open minded on whether BoE should change reserve remuneration. *** Japan Bank Min Kamei commented that deciding how to increase domestic stimulus was key to next year's . he noted that Japan needed more than just BOJ measures to beat deflation as Gov't stimulus were also needed. He commented that his party would consider leaving Ruling Coalition if disagreed with democrats but added that there was little chance of leaving at this time.

- Currencies: The USD consolidated against the major European pairs in the session but saw its best levels erode as the session moved towards the NY morning. The softer dollar sentiment was complemented by an intraday broad equity market rally and a rise in Euro-zone manufacturing PMI data.

. Overall the market is awaiting the outcome of the FOMC later today but dealers were cautions of any potential risks that the Fed might signal an exit strategy from current ultra-accommodative policies. Many Fed watchers believe that the Fed would be careful to retain its commitment of low rates for an "extended period." The EUR/USD again probe the 1.4500 level to test the strength of an alleged option barrier and again failed to breech the level. Dealers noted that the dollar was subject to position covering in thin trading conditions.


-The UK Jobless claims change registered its first negative reading since Feb 2008 as stabilization in the
UK employment situation has appeared to emerge. The GBP advanced in the hour after the data release to move towards the upper 1.63 area.

- Fixed Income: A number of high profile data releases, coupled with the ECB's final 12 month refi tender has spelled an eventful session for bond traders this morning in
Europe. European PMI's were slightly stronger than expected while CPI's were subject to a slight downward revision from the flash reading. The ECB allotted €96B in its final 12 month LTRO, towards the middle of the range of estimates, with 224 banks bidding compared to more than 50-0 in September. With all of that digested, the German yield curve is a touch steeper and the 2y Schatz yield is back below 1.25%. Gilts have held up well considering UK jobless claims posted its first negative since Feb 2008. The DMO sold £1B in June 2032 Gilts with a strong cover of 2.5 times. Treasuries yields are lower, thanks mainly to buying in Asia which has yet to be offset in European hours despite strong equities. The 10 year Note yield is down a basis point at 3.575% while the 2y note is sitting just below 0.85%

- Energy: WSJ reported that White House to announce plans to provide an additional $5B in tax credits related to green technology

- Commodities: Central CPM Group: Central banks will buy 13.8M ounces (429 metric tons) in 2009, valued around $15.5B, for the first net expansion in reserves since 1988

***Notes:
- Euro-Zone PMI data maintain slight growth outlook
- UK Claimant count falls for the first time since Feb 2008
- Australia's central bank (RBA) signals interest rates are now normal.
- Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) says they'd rather not buy that $7.5 bio in Citi stock they signed up for back in Nov '07.
- FOMC decision out later today: No surprises expected but eyeing any language change on possible exit strategy

***Looking Ahead:
- (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: No expected in the Repo rate from the current 1.25% level
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Dec 11th: No est v 8.5% prior
- 8:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Bank Rate Decision: No change expected, current Deposit Rate is 1.50%
- 8:00 (PD) Polish Nov Employment M/M: -0.2%e v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: -2.4%e v -2.4% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Nov Avg gross Wages M/M: 3.4%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.0% prior
- (BR) Brazil Nov CAGED Formal Job Creation: 150Ke v 231K prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Oct Manufacturing Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 1.4% prior'
- 8:30 (US) Nov CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior, Y/Y: 1.8%e v -0.2% prior,
- 8:30 (US) Nov CPI Ex Food & energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior, Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.7% prior
- 8:30 (US) Consumer Price Index nsa: 216.3e v 216.177, CPI Core Index: No est v 220.453 prior
- 8:30 (US) Q3 Current Account Balance: - $10.7.5Be v -$98.8B prior
- 8:30 (US) Nov Housing Starts: 574Ke v 529K prior, Building Permits: 570Ke v 551K prior
- 14:15 (US) FOMC Rate Decision: no change to current Fed Funds Target rate of 0.25% is expected
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Oct Manufacturing Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 1.4% prior'
- 8:30 (US) Nov CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior, Y/Y: 1.8%e v -0.2% prior,
- 8:30 (US) Nov CPI Ex Food & energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior, Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.7% prior
- 8:30 (US) Consumer Price Index nsa: 216.3e v 216.177, CPI Core Index: No est v 220.453 prior
- 8:30 (US) Q3 Current Account Balance: - $10.7.5Be v -$98.8B prior
- 8:30 (US) Nov Housing Starts: 574Ke v 529K prior, Building Permits: 570Ke v 551K prior
- 10:30 (US) DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories: Crude: -2Me; Gasoline: +1Me; Distillate: -750Ke; Capacity Utilization: 81.4%e

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

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