The U.S. Dollar is trading softer overnight as traders
reduced long positions ahead of todayâ€™s Federal Open Market Committee
The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate at
0.25%; the argument is whether it will alter the language its policy statement
to represent positive changes in the U.S. economy.
Bullish Dollar traders are looking for the Fed to lean more
toward the hawkish side.These traders
have increased bets the last few days that the Fed would soften the language of
its last monetary policy statement.These changes would include altering or removing the Fedâ€™s stance to
keep interest rates low for â€śan extended periodâ€ť.
From a traderâ€™s perspective, the Fed will have to substantially
alter the language of its statement since a simple softening of a few phrases
has already been priced into the market.In addition, traders are likely to sell the Dollar if the Fed leaves the
current language intact or if it surprisingly becomes more dovish.Based on these scenarios, the Dollar is
likely to feel pressure following the release of the statement.Todayâ€™s announcement could become a simple
case of â€śBuy the Rumor, Sell the Factâ€ť.
A break in the Dollar after the Fed news should be treated
as a profit-taking correction and not the start of another change in
trend.Now that the main trend has
turned up, traders should look for a buying opportunity on the next substantial
The EUR USD is trading better overnight.Traders are lightening up short positions
ahead of the Fedâ€™s statement and reacting positively to good Euro Zone
purchasing mangerâ€™s indexes on manufacturing and services.For the second day in a row, the Euro is
holding a .618 retracement level at 1.4465.
An unexpectedly better U.K. jobless claims report is
helping to give the GBP USD a boost overnight.This was the first decline since 2008.The British Pound held inside a retracement zone at 1.6292 to 1.6254 the
past 4 days while trying to establish a support base.Breaking out to the upside could trigger a
rally to 1.6443 to 1.6508.
The USD JPY is trading softer overnight.Todayâ€™s upside target is 90.07.The chart indicates room to the downside with
88.08 a potential target.
The USD CHF is giving back some of yesterdayâ€™s gains.Watch for a possible pullback to the old main
top at 1.0337.A failure to hold a
correction back to this price indicates further downside pressure.The chart indicates this market is vulnerable
to a correction back to 1.0173.
The Canadian Dollar is trading slightly better.The USD CAD remains inside of a main range at
1.0691 to 1.0459.A minor range at
1.0598 to 1.0537 is also attracting attention.
The AUD USD weakened overnight before short-covering hit the
market.Earlier in the overnight trading
session, traders reacted negatively to the news that the economy grew in the
3rd quarter at a slower pace and below market expectations.This decline in growth could be a reaction
from higher interest rates.The Reserve
Bank of Australia
saw this coming.This is why it decided
to take a pause in any further interest rate hikes over the short-run.The Aussie took out the last swing bottom at
.9014.This reaffirmed the current down
The weaker Australian Dollar led to selling pressure in the
NZD USD overnight.This currency pair,
however, found support in a retracement zone at .7180 to .7148. Bullish traders
continue to support this market on dips following last weekâ€™s hawkish comments
from the Reserve Bank of New
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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