Equities are holding firm overnight ahead of the Fedâ€™s
policy statement.Traders want to see
indications that the Fed sees improvements in the economy.At the same time, they donâ€™t want to see
higher interest rates.This sets up the
possibility of a choppy two-sided trade following the release of the FOMC
statement.A rally through 1114.25 in
the March E-mini S&P 500 is likely to trigger a rally to 1119.00, then
1122.00.A break under 1009.75 could
trigger a hard break to 1096.75.
March Treasury Bonds are trading slightly better.The recent sell-off in the T-Bonds and
T-Notes is a sign that traders are anticipating hawkish comments from the
Fed.The failure of the Fed to
accommodate these traders is likely to send the Treasuries sharply higher.
February Gold is trading higher. This is a sign that gold
traders are betting on a weaker Dollar following the Fed report.The chart indicates a move to $1155.50 is
March Crude oil is trading inside of a retracement zone
after forming a new main bottom at 72.45.The chart indicates a rally to 75.53 is likely over the short-run.Firmer stocks and a weaker Dollar could
support a rally today.
The U.S. Dollar is trading softer overnight as traders
reduced long positions ahead of todayâ€™s Federal Open Market Committee
The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate at
0.25%; the argument is whether it will alter the language its policy statement
to represent positive changes in the U.S. economy.
Bullish Dollar traders are looking for the Fed to lean more
toward the hawkish side.These traders
have increased bets the last few days that the Fed would soften the language of
its last monetary policy statement.These changes would include altering or removing the Fedâ€™s stance to
keep interest rates low for â€śan extended periodâ€ť.
From a traderâ€™s perspective, the Fed will have to
substantially alter the language of its statement since a simple softening of a
few phrases has already been priced into the market.In addition, traders are likely to sell the
Dollar if the Fed leaves the current language intact or if it surprisingly
becomes more dovish.Based on these
scenarios, the Dollar is likely to feel pressure following the release of the
statement.Todayâ€™s announcement could
become a simple case of â€śBuy the Rumor, Sell the Factâ€ť.
A break in the Dollar after the Fed news should be treated
as a profit-taking correction and not the start of another change in
trend.Now that the main trend has turned
up, traders should look for a buying opportunity on the next substantial
The March Euro is trading better overnight.Traders are lightening up short positions
ahead of the Fedâ€™s statement and reacting positively to good Euro Zone
purchasing mangerâ€™s indexes on manufacturing and services.For the second day in a row, the Euro is
holding a .618 retracement level at 1.4465.
An unexpectedly better U.K. jobless claims report is
helping to give the March British Pound a boost overnight.This was the first decline since 2008.The British Pound held inside a retracement
zone at 1.6292 to 1.6254 the past 4 days while trying to establish a support
base.Breaking out to the upside could
trigger a rally to 1.6443 to 1.6508.
The March Japanese Yen is trading a little better
overnight.Todayâ€™s downside target is
1.1062.The chart indicates room to the
upside with 1.1139 a potential target.
The March Swiss Franc is taking back some of yesterdayâ€™s
loss.Watch for a possible pullback to
the old main bottom at .9690.A failure
to hold a correction back to this price indicates further upside pressure.The chart indicates this market could rally
back to .9830.
The Canadian Dollar is trading slightly better.This currency pair remains inside of a main range
at .9571 to .9365.A minor range at
.9504 to .9440 is also attracting attention.
Forex Trading News
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