The U.S. Dollar is surging against a basket of trade
weighted currencies overnight following the news that the S&P Corp.
credit rating for the second time this year.This news has been particularly bearish for the Euro as it raises the
possibility that more downgrades of Euro Zone sovereign debt are to follow.
Investors now fear that the spread of bad debt throughout the region could
trigger serious problems banking issues, curtailing the current economic
The downgrade news came on the heels of yesterdayâ€™s Federal
Reserve report.While not actually a
bullish report for the Dollar, the Fedâ€™s carefully chosen language did nothing
to damage the developing uptrend.The
Fed essentially declared the financial markets healthy enough to begin removing
emergency stimulus before its scheduled ending date on Feb. 1.The Fed cited â€śimprovements in the
functioning of financial marketsâ€ť as the main reason to believe it would let
its financial aid packages expire on time in February.
The Fed also added that labor issues were â€śabatingâ€ť.This comment was influenced by the drop in
the unemployment rate from 10.2% to 10.0%.The Fed upgraded the growth outlook as improvements in economic data since
its last meeting in November warranted the following comment, â€śeconomic
activity has continued to pick-up and that the deterioration in the labor
market is abating.â€ťFinally, the Fed
added that â€śfinancial market conditions have become more supportive of economic
On the downside, the Fed said, the economy is â€ślikely to
remain weak for some time.â€ť In addition, the Fed reiterated its pledge to keep
interest rates â€śexceptionally lowâ€ť for an â€śextended period.â€ťThis comment led economists to believe that
interest rates are not likely to rise until June 2010 or later.
So while the Fedâ€™s comments did nothing to break the Dollar,
there were sufficient enough friendly comments to help the Dollar remain
firm.Based on this assessment, traders
will focus today on the developing debt issues in Greece while speculating that more
issues with other countries are likely to surface.
In addition to the weakness in the European currencies, the
GBP USD is under pressure because of a disappointing retail sales report.This news overwhelmed Wednesdayâ€™s better than
expected jobless claims data.
Lower stock prices and the possibility of higher interest
rates in the U.S.
are pressuring both the AUD USD and NZD USD.The Aussie is the weaker of the two.Yesterdayâ€™s report showing slower than expected 3rd Quarter growth
triggered selling pressure as it sent a sign to traders that the Reserve Bank
of Australia was likely to take a pause from hiking interest rates over the
Falling gold prices and the weakening stock market are
pressuring the Canadian Dollar.Technically, the USD CAD broke out to the upside on a move through
1.0691.The next upside target is a
swing top at 1.0748.The weekly trend
will turn to up on a trade through 1.0991.
Demand for higher yields, an improving economy and the
reversal of the carry trade is helping to trigger a strong rally in the USD
JPY.Overnight this market tested a
downtrending Gann angle which stopped the market last week.This angle is at 90.01.A close above this angle on the daily chart
signals the possibility of a further rally to 91.16.
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Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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