The U.S. Dollar reached a three-month high today.The strong surge to the upside was fueled by
the S&Pâ€™s downgrade of Greeceâ€™s
credit rating.This strong rally started
last night but gained strength throughout the day on the possibility of more
downgrades of Euro Zone sovereign debt. Investors treated the Dollar as a
safe-haven investment on the fear that the spread of bad debt throughout the
region could trigger serious banking issues, curtailing the current economic
The EUR USD took out a major 9-month uptrending Gann angle
as well as a minor .618 level overnight and accelerated to the downside.Both fundamental and technical factors
contributed to todayâ€™s weakness. Look for the downside momentum to continue
unless the European Central Bank steps up to defuse the growing debt crisis by
freeing up liquidity.
The GBP USD sold off today because of a disappointing retail
sales report.This news overwhelmed
Wednesdayâ€™s better than expected jobless claims data.Technically, the British Pound failed to hold
retracement zone support and is now trading on the weak side of a 3-month 50%
price at 1.6292.The chart indicates
this market is vulnerable to a further decline to 1.5941.
Falling gold prices and the weakening stock market pressured
the Canadian Dollar throughout the New
York trading session. Technically, the USD CAD broke
out to the upside on the move through 1.0691, but stopped short of taking out a
daily swing top at 1.0748. If the breakout above this level catches buyers
rather than stops, then look for a further rally to 1.0870.
Demand for higher yields, an improving economy and the
reversal of the carry trade helped trigger a sharp rally in the USD JPY.It is possible that a sharp sell-off in the
equity markets tomorrow could lead traders to the safety of the lower yielding
Yen. This would trigger a profit-taking correction in this currency pair.
Demand for the U.S. Dollar and debt problems in the Euro
Zone helped to underpin the USD CHF.Traders
are factoring in the possibility that Swiss banks face exposure to debt issues
in Greece, Portugal and Spain. Unless something is done to
defuse the growing fear that a debt crisis is developing, the Swiss Franc could
deteriorate further. In addition, a collapse in the gold market could put
additional downside pressure on Swiss currency.
Lower stock prices and the possibility of higher interest
rates in the U.S.
pressured both the AUD USD and NZD USD.Speculators
shied away from higher risk assets while seeking shelter. The Aussie is the
weaker of the two.Wednesdayâ€™s report
showing slower than expected 3rd Quarter growth triggered selling pressure as
it sent a sign to traders that the Reserve Bank of Australia was likely to take a
pause from hiking interest rates over the near-term.Technically, the Aussie turned the weekly
main trend down on the trade through .8905.The chart indicates the first objective is .8780, followed by .8633.The NZD USD is trading weaker but the
downside momentum could accelerate following a trade through .6952.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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