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Friday December 18, 2009 - 03:35:08 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 18-Dec-2009 - 0333 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The American stock indices fell nearly 1.25% yesterday. After having attempted a rise past 10500 over the last few days, the Resistance at 10500 pulled the Dow lower. It continues to range between 10250-10500 over last few weeks now. The unemployment claims' unexpected increase and FedEx's dispappointing forecasts called for a return to risk aversion.

The Asian indices are trading lower as well owing to risk aversion. The Shanghai (3117.67) is trading nearely 2% lower and the Nikkei (10059.74) is trading 1% lower. The Sensex which had closed flat yesterday might see a break below the Support at 16800 and may render itself bearish for 16400 over the next few trading sessions. Underperformance by the heavyweights like RIL has made the Sensex look sluggish over the last several days, thus allowing the Resistance at 17400 to be honoured.

COMMODITIES
Crude (73.08) has risen from yesterday's low of 71.21 and is now trading just above 73. The expectation of increase in demand and further fall in Crude inventories in the coming weeks because of the cold weather kept the prices higher even though the dollar remained strong. As mentioned earlier we might see a rise towards 75.50-76.00 in the coming days. On the downside Support is seen in 72.50-00 region.

Gold (1105.70), failed to withstand the divergence seen against the dollar over the last couple of days and fell sharply breaking below 1100 in the intraday trade before closing at 1107.40 yesterday. It is now trading in the Support region (1120-00) which we have been mentioning for sometime. A strong break below 1100 might pull further down towards 1075-50 in the coming days.


CURRENCIES

Strong gains were seen in the Dollar yesterday, but some of those gains have been given back today. Crucial Supports are being seen in most of the currencies now.

The Euro (1.4388) has bounced slightly after testing the 100-week Moving Average at 1.4311 yesterday. Further, there are important Fibonacci Supports at 1.43. While there is a danger/ chance of the market sentiment turning complete pro-Dollar, it might be important to note the technical Support at 1.43. Dollar-Yen (89.73) has been volatile, first falling to an early-Asia low near 88.88 from yesterday's high near 90.38, and then bouncing a bit from there. If the market remains above 89.35 now, a further rise towards 91 might be possible next week.

The Aussie (0.8894) dipped below the 100-day MA (0.8857) today to a low near 0.8810 and has bounced a bit from there. Strong Support is seen in the 0.8820-10 region now. The Pound (1.6201) fell sharply to a low near 1.6080 yesterday, but has bounced a bit from there. Decent medium term Support is seen in the 1.61-60 region now. Dollar-Swiss (1.0417) has fallen from yesterday's high near 1.05, reflecting the bounce in the Euro.

In Asia, the SGD had weakened to 1.4057 but has gained slightly to 1.4011 just now. Similarly, the Korean Won has retraced to 1175.20 after having weakened to as much as 1190 yesterday. Dollar-Rupee had seen a high near 46.96 yesterday, before closing near 46.88. It might see 47.10, but might dip from there.


INTEREST RATES
3M & 6M USD LIBOR was set at 0.25% and 0.44% respectively. The yields on US Treasuries fell sharply yesterday owing to risk aversion that have set in once again causing the Treasuries to rise. The 2Y and 10Y yields fell 6 and 12 bps respectively and were quoted at 0.77% and 3.48% respectively.


DATA TODAY
09:00 GMT Nov GER IFO Business Expectations
...Previous 98.9
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml

09:00 GMT Nov GER IFO Business Situations
...Previous 89.1
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml

09:00 GMT Nov GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 94.6...Previous 93.9
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml

10:00 GMT EU Trade Bal
...Expected 5.7 Bln...Previous 6.8 Bln


DATA YESTERDAY
CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Actual 1.5% ...Previous 1.8%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/cacpi.shtml

Nov US Philifed Index
...Actual 20.4...Previous 16.7

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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